Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Crashy_Time

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/16/coronavirus-impact-watch-chinas-tier-one-cities-like-shanghai-and-japan/#491762b97bdf

lisyloo

I think we do actually agree on a few things (wow).

Human behaviour is a factor i.e. fear and greed. Also there is some "distortion". Now I might call that "support" and you'd call it "props, distortion, manipulation, tampering" etc. but nevertheless it's a factor.

Personally I think that makes it very unpredictable certainly for the average Joe e.g. your average soldier or van driver (and I put myself squarely in the unsophisticated category).

gfplux

There is no doubt that this is effecting some things. Probably at the moment the effect is quite large closer and around the Far East.
however without argument we all know what a very small % can have a devastating effect on a single business, a chain or even an entire industry at a sensitive or vulnerable time.
that small % downturn can throw the most unlikely large or small business over the edge.
i would suggest that the announcement by HSBC today may have been influenced in the detail by the present feeling about the news.

Sailtheworld

Sailtheworld said:

gfplux said:

Jonbvn said:

Some current stats:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Number of cases is definitely slowing down (for now).
Can I stop digging the bunker now?

It is looking hopeful. Although the Chinese have taken some criticism the draconian lock down perhaps is working.

There's some simple anecdotal data to suggest a lower than feared infection and mortality rate. Look at the case of the 'super spreader' scout leader - if Coranavirus was particularly infectious or deadly the news outlets would have much better stories to tell.

I hear the couple stuck on a cruise ship who have been moaning about the SAS not being sent in to rescue them now have Coronavirus. Don't any of the more pessimistic wonder why, if Coronavirus is so infectious and has such a high mortality rate, any of the people aboard are still alive? Especially when you consider just how many old people are are housed cheek by jowl on a cruise ship.

Keeps us in 24 hour news I suppose.

gfplux

Sailtheworld said:

Sailtheworld said:

gfplux said:

Jonbvn said:

Some current stats:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Number of cases is definitely slowing down (for now).
Can I stop digging the bunker now?

It is looking hopeful. Although the Chinese have taken some criticism the draconian lock down perhaps is working.

There's some simple anecdotal data to suggest a lower than feared infection and mortality rate. Look at the case of the 'super spreader' scout leader - if Coranavirus was particularly infectious or deadly the news outlets would have much better stories to tell.

I hear the couple stuck on a cruise ship who have been moaning about the SAS not being sent in to rescue them now have Coronavirus. Don't any of the more pessimistic wonder why, if Coronavirus is so infectious and has such a high mortality rate, any of the people aboard are still alive? Especially when you consider just how many old people are are housed cheek by jowl on a cruise ship.

Keeps us in 24 hour news I suppose.

I suspect that the couple thought it would be clever and funny to have a high profile by blogging about their plight.
They are now caught in a Daily Fail nightmare of their own choosing. 
The tabloids will always eat their young.

Thrugelmir

lisyloo said:

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

Wouldn't it show in stock markets, funds, portfolios etc. Immediate the market had the knowledge?
mine isn’t showing any effect which could be that it’s already hedged certain risks.
are investment portfolios showing this in genral? E.g. is yours down?

As long as retail investors continue to purchase passive global trackers in the belief that they are immune from downturns. Then markets will remain benign. If panic were to set in then there'll be a stampede for the exits. 

Thrugelmir

gfplux said:

There is no doubt that this is effecting some things. Probably at the moment the effect is quite large closer and around the Far East.

Supply issues are hitting the global automative industry. JIT has it's downsides. 

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

lisyloo said:

Crashy_Time said:

lisyloo said:

silvertooth said:

Many people are more worried about the effect on the fragile global economy which will mean more people will die from the debt bomb exploding than from coronavirus.

if China can’t get back up and running soon then the top big to fail institutions will act fail which will mean a real catastrophic situation far worse than just the pandemic 

Once again I am requesting a link or links to back up your assertion of fragile.
we can’t take your assertions seriously or discuss them unless we know what your basing That belief on.

can you also tell us why the stock markets and house price data aren’t showing the risk that you think is clearly foreseeable? 

Because house price data takes time to feed through, and the markets are now taking bets on stimulus in China/US and elsewhere off the back of this crisis, the price of Joe Smith`s flat or his Granny`s bungalow becomes an issue when the stimulus fails (as the last ten years of stimulus has failed) and the contagion hits credit markets. 

Wouldn't it show in stock markets, funds, portfolios etc. Immediate the market had the knowledge?
mine isn’t showing any effect which could be that it’s already hedged certain risks.
are investment portfolios showing this in genral? E.g. is yours down?

As long as retail investors continue to purchase passive global trackers in the belief that they are immune from downturns. Then markets will remain benign. If panic were to set in then there'll be a stampede for the exits. 

Lisyloo has a better take on it - the markets reflect the data available. If you think you can assess the impact of Coronavirus better than the markets or have access to to better data then go make money.
Trackers have nothing to do with it.

Thrugelmir

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

Crashy_Time

lisyloo said:

I think we do actually agree on a few things (wow).

Human behaviour is a factor i.e. fear and greed. Also there is some "distortion". Now I might call that "support" and you'd call it "props, distortion, manipulation, tampering" etc. but nevertheless it's a factor.

Personally I think that makes it very unpredictable certainly for the average Joe e.g. your average soldier or van driver (and I put myself squarely in the unsophisticated category).

The Chinese will probably be money printing like crazy at the moment, Bloomberg today had a very pessimistic piece about supply chain disruption around the world IF they don`t get a handle on it, but the guest thought they could be back to near normal within 30 days if they could stop the virus in it`s tracks right now (but that is the biggest unknown, is it possible to stop this thing early?) However he thought there would then be a long decline for China as companies realise they can no longer put all their supply/manufacture eggs "in the China basket".