Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Jonbvn

Sailtheworld said:

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for.

Thank you for this line. It's interesting to gauge the varying opinions on here. As always, follow the money.
Just heard the casinos in Macau have reopened.....

Sea_Shell

It's been reported that 2 of those "coffin dodgers" have now died.

lisyloo

Sea_Shell said:

It's been reported that 2 of those "coffin dodgers" have now died.

However they were in their 80s with pre-existing conditions.
people of that age are vulnerable to any cold, flu, chest infection hence the term “coffin dodgers”. The word “frail” might be a bit more polite.

its not unheard of for elderly people to die on cruise ships just because of the age of the population. It’s not something you normally think about but they have place to put corpses.

GDB2222

Unlike Spanish Flu, which was particularly deadly for young people, COV seems to be more eclectic. 

MobileSaver

GDB2222 said:

I disagree on two points. 
They've been locked in their cabins more or less, with food brought to them by people wearing isolation gear. That's clearly not the perfect conditions for viruses to spread.

I think you are mistaken. I half-heard an interview on the radio with a doctor who had been on the ship; if i remember correctly he stated conditions on the ship were poor with little delineation between quarantied and non-quarantined areas making it surprising more hadn't been infected.

lisyloo said:

its not unheard of for elderly people to die on cruise ships just because of the age of the population.

Precisely, this articles estimates 200 people a year die on cruise ships so, while tragic for the families involved, the two being mentioned is meaningless in itself.

What happens when someone dies on a cruise?

Sailtheworld

Sea_Shell said:

It's been reported that 2 of those "coffin dodgers" have now died.

In near perfect conditions (a cruise ship full of oldies with the virus present) two have died. Both probably well over the average age of the rest of the cruisers.
3000 people on a cruise ship is a small sample size but it means the death rate is less than 0.1% of the total and 0.3% of those infected. Undoubtably these numbers will rise this isn't the pandemic that's going to rival Spanish Flu - nothing near.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Global world mining index fell 5.5% in January.  An indication that in certain sectors the downside risk was already being priced in. 
Retail investors as a herd have a considerable influence on share prices. Market makers don't just set prices on news but demand. 

You search for a part of the market that happens to be down and conclude this sector was pricing in the downside Coronavirus risk. If the mining index fell in January because it correctly priced Coronavirus does it mean that by being up 2.1% month to date means it was overdone? No, of course not, you've been fooled by randomness, are making conclusions based on noise and are looking to confirm your bias.

Then there's the Scooby Doo defense. 'I'm right and if it wasn't for those meddling retail investors and their pesky herd mentality I would've got away with it'.

If Coronavirus can't see off a cruise ship full of immuno-suppressed, elderly coffin dodgers who have been living in a virus incubator then this isn't the pandemic you've been hoping for. There will be repercussions and, horror of horrors, there might even be shortage of iPhones. 

No searching I can assure you. Some of us don't spend our time being assumptive to reinforce our our own opinions. 

When biases are so vague and undefined I suppose not much searching is required to confirm them.

Thought that you believe in efficient markets. There's plenty of market research and indepth commentary available. Not just the virus risk that's influences share prices. 

Markets aren't completely efficient. However there are two types of investor; those who realise they don't have better data or better analysis to profit from the inefficiencies and those who are yet to realise. Markets tend to rise over time and that makes 'experts' of us all.
Of the few with an edge even they wouldn't point to a (volatile) market sector that has fallen as others have risen and claim it's because the mining sector is better pricing the Coronavirus threat. It's nonsense and best left to the talking heads.

GDB2222

Sailtheworld said:

Sea_Shell said:

It's been reported that 2 of those "coffin dodgers" have now died.

In near perfect conditions (a cruise ship full of oldies with the virus present) two have died. Both probably well over the average age of the rest of the cruisers.
3000 people on a cruise ship is a small sample size but it means the death rate is less than 0.1% of the total and 0.3% of those infected. Undoubtably these numbers will rise this isn't the pandemic that's going to rival Spanish Flu - nothing near.

You continue to ignore the point that it’s far too early to draw conclusions about the mortality rate on the cruise ship. Yesterday there were no deaths reported, today 2, and tomorrow ...? 

Why concentrate on the ship, anyway, when the epidemiologists have a far bigger data set to work from?

Hopefully, this will be contained, but if not it seems inevitable that many people will die. Our prognosticators here won’t make any difference, of course.

Sailtheworld

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Sea_Shell said:

It's been reported that 2 of those "coffin dodgers" have now died.

In near perfect conditions (a cruise ship full of oldies with the virus present) two have died. Both probably well over the average age of the rest of the cruisers.
3000 people on a cruise ship is a small sample size but it means the death rate is less than 0.1% of the total and 0.3% of those infected. Undoubtably these numbers will rise this isn't the pandemic that's going to rival Spanish Flu - nothing near.

You continue to ignore the point that it’s far too early to draw conclusions about the mortality rate on the cruise ship. Yesterday there were no deaths reported, today 2, and tomorrow ...? 

Why concentrate on the ship, anyway, when the epidemiologists have a far bigger data set to work from?

Hopefully, this will be contained, but if not it seems inevitable that many people will die. Our prognosticators here won’t make any difference, of course.

I specifically addressed the point about it being too early to draw conclusions about mortality rate on the cruis ship. As I said the numbers of deaths are undoubtably bound to rise above 0.1% in the cruise liner population. Apparently if you're going to meet the Grim Reaper it's around 14 days from when you were first infected.

You won't get a better idea of mortality rate from looking at the wider data because it's just too early and the data is all over the place. 

GDB2222

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Sea_Shell said:

It's been reported that 2 of those "coffin dodgers" have now died.

In near perfect conditions (a cruise ship full of oldies with the virus present) two have died. Both probably well over the average age of the rest of the cruisers.
3000 people on a cruise ship is a small sample size but it means the death rate is less than 0.1% of the total and 0.3% of those infected. Undoubtably these numbers will rise this isn't the pandemic that's going to rival Spanish Flu - nothing near.

You continue to ignore the point that it’s far too early to draw conclusions about the mortality rate on the cruise ship. Yesterday there were no deaths reported, today 2, and tomorrow ...? 

Why concentrate on the ship, anyway, when the epidemiologists have a far bigger data set to work from?

Hopefully, this will be contained, but if not it seems inevitable that many people will die. Our prognosticators here won’t make any difference, of course.

I specifically addressed the point about it being too early to draw conclusions about mortality rate on the cruis ship. As I said the numbers of deaths are undoubtably bound to rise above 0.1% in the cruise liner population. Apparently if you're going to meet the Grim Reaper it's around 14 days from when you were first infected.

You won't get a better idea of mortality rate from looking at the wider data because it's just too early and the data is all over the place. 

I’ve just started a nasty dry cough, but I daren't phone 111 or the house will get cordoned off, and it’s probably nothing serious. I need to go on the Underground to some important meetings tomorrow. Perhaps I should call 111 in a few days time, if it gets worse.