Coronavirus effect on property markets?

GDB2222

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

UK government has declared Coronavirus a serious threat to public health. It has a 5% mortality rate, and it could infect most of the population. That’s bound to have a huge effect on the economy, if it gets that bad. 

If most of the population get infected and if 5% of them die then 3,000,000 in the UK are going to be meeting the grim reaper between now and September.
I think there's going to be quite a large gap between the maths and the reality.

Hopefully, you are right. But, how can one possibly tell? Unfortunately, people seem to be highly infectious before they have any significant symptoms. Of course, extrapolation from just 8 known cases in this country to 3m deaths is completely absurd, I agree. But, even a few thousand deaths would probably lead to the country’s more or less shutting down for a period of several weeks or months. 

We can deal with the more straightforward consequences fairly simply. For example, it would be silly to let lenders repossess a few million houses, even if they could do the paperwork!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

GDB2222 said:

 even a few thousand deaths would probably lead to the country’s more or less shutting down for a period of several weeks or months. 

We can deal with the more straightforward consequences fairly simply. For example, it would be silly to let lenders repossess a few million houses, even if they could do the paperwork!

This....

We've already contingency planned for such an eventuality in our business - obviously a government ordered shut-down of virtually all businesses in the country for a month or two would be hugely disruptive and could force most of them into bankruptcy - so the contingency plan is actually fairly simple.

It involves laying off 100% of staff on day one, securing all the premises, terminating any contracts/services we can, and then contacting all suppliers/creditors to say we can't pay you until we're allowed to trade again and if you don't like it speak to the government. 

In that type of scenario the government would inevitably pass emergency legislation effectively giving all businesses (and most people) a payment holiday on virtually all their bills until they were able to trade/work again.

As if a Bank/Landlord/etc forces one of their customers into insolvency it only threatens the viability of that customer, but if a Bank/Landlord/etc forces 90% of their customers into insolvency.... Well, then it's the bank or landlord going bust, and probably the country as well.

Sailtheworld

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

UK government has declared Coronavirus a serious threat to public health. It has a 5% mortality rate, and it could infect most of the population. That’s bound to have a huge effect on the economy, if it gets that bad. 

If most of the population get infected and if 5% of them die then 3,000,000 in the UK are going to be meeting the grim reaper between now and September.
I think there's going to be quite a large gap between the maths and the reality.

Hopefully, you are right. But, how can one possibly tell? Unfortunately, people seem to be highly infectious before they have any significant symptoms. Of course, extrapolation from just 8 known cases in this country to 3m deaths is completely absurd, I agree. But, even a few thousand deaths would probably lead to the country’s more or less shutting down for a period of several weeks or months. 

We can deal with the more straightforward consequences fairly simply. For example, it would be silly to let lenders repossess a few million houses, even if they could do the paperwork!

Around 17,000 people died every year of flu (on average) over the last few years. Unless this virus is dramatically more infectious and / or has a substantially higher mortality rate or then the country shutting down for a few months for the sake of a few thousands deaths would represent quite an over-reaction egged on by the media.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

UK government has declared Coronavirus a serious threat to public health. It has a 5% mortality rate, and it could infect most of the population. That’s bound to have a huge effect on the economy, if it gets that bad. 

If most of the population get infected and if 5% of them die then 3,000,000 in the UK are going to be meeting the grim reaper between now and September.
I think there's going to be quite a large gap between the maths and the reality.

Hopefully, you are right. But, how can one possibly tell? Unfortunately, people seem to be highly infectious before they have any significant symptoms. Of course, extrapolation from just 8 known cases in this country to 3m deaths is completely absurd, I agree. But, even a few thousand deaths would probably lead to the country’s more or less shutting down for a period of several weeks or months. 

We can deal with the more straightforward consequences fairly simply. For example, it would be silly to let lenders repossess a few million houses, even if they could do the paperwork!

Around 17,000 people died every year of flu (on average) over the last few years. Unless this virus is dramatically more infectious and / or has a substantially higher mortality rate or then the country shutting down for a few months for the sake of a few thousands deaths would represent quite an over-reaction egged on by the media.

It is nearly as infectious as flu, but with a mortality rate somewhere between 20 and 40 times worse.

This isn't an over-reaction by the media..... If anything they're underplaying it.

Crashy_Time

Wow, I agree with Hamish on something....yes the media are in crowd control mode and have been all the way through so far IMO.

GDB2222

It’s worth pointing out that the mortality rate is 5% with excellent medical care. In the event of a massive outbreak, such care would not be possible.

Sailtheworld

GDB2222 said:

It’s worth pointing out that the mortality rate is 5% with excellent medical care. In the event of a massive outbreak, such care would not be possible.

So if most of the population get infected HAMISH_MCTAVISH said:

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

Sailtheworld said:

GDB2222 said:

UK government has declared Coronavirus a serious threat to public health. It has a 5% mortality rate, and it could infect most of the population. That’s bound to have a huge effect on the economy, if it gets that bad. 

If most of the population get infected and if 5% of them die then 3,000,000 in the UK are going to be meeting the grim reaper between now and September.
I think there's going to be quite a large gap between the maths and the reality.

Hopefully, you are right. But, how can one possibly tell? Unfortunately, people seem to be highly infectious before they have any significant symptoms. Of course, extrapolation from just 8 known cases in this country to 3m deaths is completely absurd, I agree. But, even a few thousand deaths would probably lead to the country’s more or less shutting down for a period of several weeks or months. 

We can deal with the more straightforward consequences fairly simply. For example, it would be silly to let lenders repossess a few million houses, even if they could do the paperwork!

Around 17,000 people died every year of flu (on average) over the last few years. Unless this virus is dramatically more infectious and / or has a substantially higher mortality rate or then the country shutting down for a few months for the sake of a few thousands deaths would represent quite an over-reaction egged on by the media.

It is nearly as infectious as flu, but with a mortality rate somewhere between 20 and 40 times worse.

This isn't an over-reaction by the media..... If anything they're underplaying it.

Deaths caused by flu in the US were 14.3 per 100,0000 in 2017. 20 x worse is 286 per 100,000 and 40 x worse is 572 per 100,000. Total death rate in the USA is 82 per 100,000. 

Assuming the UK has the same rates and a population of 60m is would mean additional Coronavirus deaths of between 171,600 and 343,200 deaths....

Or, you take the last five year average (17,000) and multiply by 20 & 40 which gives a range of between 340,000 and 680,000 deaths....

Or, you take GDB2222's take which is near universal infection and a 5% mortality rate which will give us 3,000,000 deaths. Unfortunately that assumes decent health care which is far from a given because that's nearly 3x current NHS employees. However, we can at least assume at this rate residential homes would rapidly empty and the 1.2m carers suddenly without people to care for could be drafted to care for the ill.

Don't get me wrong - there's bound to be another Spanish Flu or suchlike sooner or later but even that 'only' caused 228,000 deaths (albeit in a smaller population).

I blame 24 hour news for much of the hysteria.

GDB2222

Particularly sadly, Spanish Flu Mostly killed young people. The death toll was several times the number killed in WW1. 

I’m not sure you can validly extrapolate from normal flu, as so many at risk people get vaccinated against normal flu. Also, the symptom-free incubation period makes a big difference to contagion, and that’s probably longer with Coronavirus.  

Jonbvn

GDB2222 said:

It’s worth pointing out that the mortality rate is 5% with excellent medical care. In the event of a massive outbreak, such care would not be possible.

A 5% mortality rate seems overstated according to this article.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Considering the economics of the situation, I read this on ADVFN this morning:

"The rate of new cases is slowing, which is the most important thing," he said. "As we've been saying, following the selling since the virus hit the headlines it's now about the pace of acceleration or deceleration in the rate of new cases, as well as the longevity of the economic impact. Investors are betting any hit to growth will be temporary, and if it’s not stimulus is a-coming. Hell, stimulus is coming anyway. It’ll take weeks to know whether we’re out of the woods, let alone understand what the economic impact is.

"If I were a betting man I’d say the hit to China and regional growth, as well as global supply chains, will be harder than the equity markets suggest."

Jonbvn

Jonbvn said:

GDB2222 said:

It’s worth pointing out that the mortality rate is 5% with excellent medical care. In the event of a massive outbreak, such care would not be possible.

Better article here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf