Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

From a temporary shutdown?
Are you saying you think they’ll be shutting down and quarantining people for a long period of time?

I think this will either be successful and therefore temporary or a failure and therefore temporary.
Is there another scenario you foresee?

I don`t think it` s just me that can see a lot of potential downside from this.....!

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/chinese-central-bank-pump-173-bln-economy-virus-092920624.html

No idea what your second paragraph means, if the present measures don`t work to contain the virus there could be an economic shock and credit market event worse than 2007/8.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

We have lots of dying and infectious people with influenza which doesn't affect prices (or is factored into the general death rate).


Certainly badly affected areas by the virus or prejudice e.g. chinatown in London, will be affected for sure.


If it goes the same way as mers, sars, ebola, zikka then I don't see UK being massively affected. There are plenty of viruses like influenza that kill old people that free up houses for others, but still not at a rate to meet demand in the UK.

We have 2 cases in the UK and those have been quarantined.

It could get worse but will it free up enough houses for all of those wanting one?

It is not about freeing up houses, there are plenty of houses to go round, houses on developments and private sales sit there for years because no one wants them at the price, the issue is credit and the fallout from a slowing China, defaults etc. causing a credit crunch that stalls lending on property and other things, the central banks are not in the same position as 2008 to fight back with endless liquidity and zero rates.

triathlon

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I don`t think it` s just me that can see a lot of potential downside from this.....!

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/chinese-central-bank-pump-173-bln-economy-virus-092920624.html

No idea what your second paragraph means, if the present measures don`t work to contain the virus there could be an economic shock and credit market event worse than 2007/8.

Oh Dear Oh Dear

So now you are telling us this virus will bring down the UK housing market:rotfl::rotfl:

How many Black swans is that now?

Thrugelmir

Surprised that the concern isn't focussed more on pension pots. First week of enforced holiday following the Chinese New Year shut down. Will production resume on the 10th February as planned. Apple sales (for example) will be affected if lock down remains in place.

Crashy_Time

triathlon wrote: »

Oh Dear Oh Dear

So now you are telling us this virus will bring down the UK housing market:rotfl::rotfl:

How many Black swans is that now?

Two, the first one was 2007/8 (although tons of people saw it coming the people with the power to prevent it seemingly did not) and the world`s financial system is still on life-support due to that meltdown, this one is more true Black Swan though and if it causes another global credit meltdown it could easily topple the UK bubble, but even without the multiple problems in China I think the fallout from our coming bust up with the EU this year might do the job.

gfplux

Presently the number of cases is growing day by day. We all hope that cases and deaths will stop rising.
I can see that at the moment fear of infection will effect the economy. Shops in shopping centres may be vulnerable as mixing with thousands of people is more dangerous than sitting at home and ordering online.
I don’t know wether any posters here work in retail and probably would report that last weekend the shops were still busy.
However 7 days is a long time so this coming weekend could be a test.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I don`t think it` s just me that can see a lot of potential downside from this.....!

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/chinese-central-bank-pump-173-bln-economy-virus-092920624.html

No idea what your second paragraph means, if the present measures don`t work to contain the virus there could be an economic shock and credit market event worse than 2007/8.

Not sure what is hard to understand about success/failure in this context.
Success = containing the virus
Failure = global pandemic

As you’ve been asked on another thread do you think the banking system and individuals are in a worse or better or equal situation than 2008 to withstand a global financial crash (my answer is that banks have put a lot of measures in place for both their own liquidity and personal finance e.g. mortgage affordability, fixed rates etc.)

Btw - none of us who’ve invested in our future expect a smooth ride or no crashes. It’s a bit like life, we forge ahead with a plan to cater for the rough times.

A virus coming from Asia was actually anticipated.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It is not about freeing up houses, there are plenty of houses to go round, houses on developments and private sales sit there for years because no one wants them at the price, the issue is credit and the fallout from a slowing China, defaults etc. causing a credit crunch that stalls lending on property and other things, the central banks are not in the same position as 2008 to fight back with endless liquidity and zero rates.

So you are saying you think we are in a worse posterior than 2008 and the measures put in place haven’t worked at all?

lisyloo

gfplux wrote: »

Presently the number of cases is growing day by day. We all hope that cases and deaths will stop rising.
I can see that at the moment fear of infection will effect the economy. Shops in shopping centres may be vulnerable as mixing with thousands of people is more dangerous than sitting at home and ordering online.
I don’t know wether any posters here work in retail and probably would report that last weekend the shops were still busy.
However 7 days is a long time so this coming weekend could be a test.

It’s happening in Chinatown in London but it’s prejudice rather than rational fear.
I thinking of not being prejudiced and maybe just walking in for a chinese at the weekend (there are usually queues out the door).

triathlon

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Surprised that the concern isn't focussed more on pension pots. First week of enforced holiday following the Chinese New Year shut down. Will production resume on the 10th February as planned. Apple sales (for example) will be affected if lock down remains in place.

You have just touched on what is really the biggest probably in the UK, not "property crashes"