Debate House Prices


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Coronavirus effect on property markets?

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Comments

  • I can't see property prices being affected by this. The only possibility would it be combining with something else that lowers prices.

    At the moment the most likely event would be the government's statements that there will be no alignment with EU standards. A meaningful deal seems almost impossible by the end of the year. That no deal/limited areas deal will affect property prices more than the coronavirus is likely to, but I suppose the virus could reduce buyer confidence further.
  • Crashy_Time
    Crashy_Time Posts: 13,386
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    lisyloo wrote: »
    Agree if it happens locally.
    AIDS, zika, Ebola all were tragedies locally or for certain communities.

    Do you understand the importance of China to world growth/consumption, and do you know that defaults from Chinese banks/businesses could have a very big effect on global credit markets and understand how this could transmit to lending on mortgages and other debt?
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546
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    lisyloo wrote: »
    Ok we’re all going to die. No need to worry too much about property prices then :-)

    Yes we know about international travel, that is why travel restrictions and quarantine are in place, to take a short term economic hit to prevent worse.
    This will either work and be temporary or the disease will become widespread and then the restrictions will be lifted and we’ll have another virus that will kill mostly sick/elderly/frail people. Are there any other scenarios?

    Do you foresee a massive uk property crash but people wanting mortgages all get to keep their jobs? Most of think a property crash is like proverbial old age I.e. doesn’t come on it’s own.

    The forecasts for population decline in the developed world are well documented. Though well after I'm gone. The short term pressures will remain. As people are prepared to pay a premium for having more space than actually need.
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,784
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    JakeHall wrote: »
    I can't see property prices being affected by this. The only possibility would it be combining with something else that lowers prices.

    At the moment the most likely event would be the government's statements that there will be no alignment with EU standards. A meaningful deal seems almost impossible by the end of the year. That no deal/limited areas deal will affect property prices more than the coronavirus is likely to, but I suppose the virus could reduce buyer confidence further.

    I definitely see this a buying opportunity, but for me that is in equities (not property) because for lifestyle reasons, I have already drastically reduced my investment in property, and have no desire to do a U turn.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • lisyloo
    lisyloo Posts: 29,537
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    Do you understand the importance of China to world growth/consumption, and do you know that defaults from Chinese banks/businesses could have a very big effect on global credit markets and understand how this could transmit to lending on mortgages and other debt?

    From a temporary shutdown?
    Are you saying you think they’ll be shutting down and quarantining people for a long period of time?

    I think this will either be successful and therefore temporary or a failure and therefore temporary.
    Is there another scenario you foresee?
  • The-Joker
    The-Joker Posts: 718 Forumite
    I think there is a chance this could be like the Spanish flu and wipe out a hell of a lot of people


    If so the entire economy and property prices will suffer for sure
    The thing about chaos is, it's fair.
  • lisyloo
    lisyloo Posts: 29,537
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    The-Joker wrote: »
    I think there is a chance this could be like the Spanish flu and wipe out a hell of a lot of people


    If so the entire economy and property prices will suffer for sure

    Despite increased international travel, I think we’re generally better placed to deal with it than we were in 1918 when Florence nightingale was dealing with it.

    It could be a major issue in 3rd world countries without good healthcare or education.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546
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    lisyloo wrote: »
    Despite increased international travel, I think we’re generally better placed to deal with it than we were in 1918 when Florence nightingale was dealing with it.

    It could be a major issue in 3rd world countries without good healthcare or education.

    Pakistan has continued to allow flights. The funding through the Belt and Road initiative makes for an all weather ally.
  • Rich2808
    Rich2808 Posts: 1,309
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    Like any illness it will have !!!!!! all effect on house prices.

    I am wondering what the impact on global house prices was between 1918 and 1920 when up to 5 per cent of the world's population died of the Spanish flu - the conservative estimate being 10 million more than all the civilian and military casualties in WWI with other estimates being double that.

    Now I am not of course comparing this coronavirus and that pandemic - but to say having lots of dead and dying and infectious people could never impact house sales and viewings is a little bit of a stretch. I very much doubt the property market in Wuhan is moving much at present - although their equivalent of rightmove will still probably suggest a rise in asking prices this month!
  • lisyloo
    lisyloo Posts: 29,537
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    but to say having lots of dead and dying and infectious people could never impact house sales


    We have lots of dying and infectious people with influenza which doesn't affect prices (or is factored into the general death rate).


    Certainly badly affected areas by the virus or prejudice e.g. chinatown in London, will be affected for sure.


    If it goes the same way as mers, sars, ebola, zikka then I don't see UK being massively affected. There are plenty of viruses like influenza that kill old people that free up houses for others, but still not at a rate to meet demand in the UK.

    We have 2 cases in the UK and those have been quarantined.

    It could get worse but will it free up enough houses for all of those wanting one?
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