Coronavirus effect on property markets?

Sailtheworld

AG47 wrote: »

What will happen to property markets if this coronavirus does keep spreading as it is doing currently?

'What will the effect of [insert today's headline here] be on property prices?' is quite a popular quiz question on HPC.

The question leads to lots of excitement and utterances of 'it's definitely on' but the reality is that 99.99% of the time the true answer will be not a lot if anything at all.

Londoners would use an outbreak of Bubonic Plague to buy and sell each others houses for ever higher prices so good luck hoping that Coronavirus is going to have a negative impact.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

So you are saying you think we are in a worse posterior than 2008 and the measures put in place haven’t worked at all?

?? Google "China Oil Demand" and DYOR on what you think could happen to business defaults/wider credit markets. Whether the measures have worked or not I`m pretty sure very few people know, but the Chines don`t even believe their own government and the rest of the world also don`t believe them and it is this psychology that will be making people wary of public places in many parts of China and elsewhere until there is a definite answer.

gfplux

lisyloo wrote: »

It’s happening in Chinatown in London but it’s prejudice rather than rational fear.
I thinking of not being prejudiced and maybe just walking in for a chinese at the weekend (there are usually queues out the door).

I ate in a Chinese Restaurant on Monday.

Malthusian

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Surprised that the concern isn't focussed more on pension pots. First week of enforced holiday following the Chinese New Year shut down. Will production resume on the 10th February as planned. Apple sales (for example) will be affected if lock down remains in place.

Only temporarily. Apple has previously used engineered shortages to create buzz. People aren't going to forget that iPhones exist during a temporary slowdown in production. If anything it'll make them want iPhones even more.

And coronavirus isn't going to make a dent in demand, because the virus has only killed a few hundred people and most of them are too old to be in the market for new iPhones. (It'll have the same effect as a terrible avalanche on page 52 of the World section, i.e. none.)

If I was in charge of Apple I'd be engineering another shortage and winding up the Apple droids by stockpiling. Send a few influencers to take photos of empty Apple Store shelves and plant stories in the consumer press about the Great iPhone Drought. Then, when the factories are back online one way or the other, by which time used iPhones will be exchanging hands for £2,000, bung another few hundred quid on the price and start releasing the stock to the clamouring hordes.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian wrote: »

Only temporarily. Apple has previously used engineered shortages to create buzz. People aren't going to forget that iPhones exist during a temporary slowdown in production. If anything it'll make them want iPhones even more.

Was simply using Apple as an example. Foxconn employ 250,000 people. That's a lot of lost output lost. The effects will ripple out through both the supply and delivery chains.

lisyloo

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Was simply using Apple as an example. Foxconn employ 250,000 people. That's a lot of lost output lost. The effects will ripple out through both the supply and delivery chains.

Many of us have contingency built into our plans including governments, individuals and business. I read about a business on bbc that said it would absorb increases temporarily from sourcing more expensive parts.
Bad news is not unexpected for any sensible business or individual.

The action being taken by many countries is to reduce the impact as much as possible.
The problem I see with doom mongers grasping onto worst case scenarios is that they fail to take into account the efforts to reduce the impacts and I am referring to

Governments pumping money into economies
Businesses absorbing costs or taking action e.g. reducing crude oil output
Individuals diversifying their risks
Government actions - quarantine, border controls etc.

I would be surprised if joe public in the uk is making serious plans e.g. putting house purchase on hold for this.

The same is true of no deal brexit. We will not just sit back and let the worse case scenario happen. The BOE, army (if necessary) I.e. massive resources would be available to stop the worst case scenario unfolding e.g. we’d get emergency medicine supplies in.

DigForVictory

If the coronavirus brings greater electronic secure communications, then Hurrah!

The legal profession have been able to get away with pen & ink requirements for a long time & it would be interesting to see if bringing suitably secure electronic comms in speed the whole process up At All.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Was simply using Apple as an example. Foxconn employ 250,000 people. That's a lot of lost output lost. The effects will ripple out through both the supply and delivery chains.

I'd wager you have a gut feeling that bad things are going to happen and are gathering 'evidence' to confirm your bias. The evidence consists of nothing more than the headlines of the day with a few big numbers thrown in (you can have no concept of how Coronavirus will affect Apple and / or Foxconn).

The bear story always sounds more compelling. Yes, bad things will happen (they always do) and, yes, there will be a pandemic at some point in the future but you have no ability to predict when the bad things will happen (you struggle to confirm what they are) and you haven't a cat in hell's chance of being able to judge if this is the pandemic we've been waiting for.

It's hysterics. Even if it turns out this is the end of days you've have that funny feeling about for the whole of your adult life then we'll have better things to worry about than the availability of iPhones.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld wrote: »

I'd wager you have a gut feeling that bad things are going to happen and are gathering 'evidence' to confirm your bias. The evidence consists of nothing more than the headlines of the day with a few big numbers thrown in (you can have no concept of how Coronavirus will affect Apple and / or Foxconn).

The bear story always sounds more compelling. Yes, bad things will happen (they always do) and, yes, there will be a pandemic at some point in the future but you have no ability to predict when the bad things will happen (you struggle to confirm what they are) and you haven't a cat in hell's chance of being able to judge if this is the pandemic we've been waiting for.

It's hysterics. Even if it turns out this is the end of days you've have that funny feeling about for the whole of your adult life then we'll have better things to worry about than the availability of iPhones.

Doesn't take much to get you on your trolling high horse. I used Apple as it's a simple example to comprehend........

lisyloo

gfplux wrote: »

I ate in a Chinese Restaurant on Monday.

Well done you, but many “chinatowns” are facing prejudice.
Not just London, but Paris, Singapore etc.