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BEV emmissions
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Martyn1981 wrote: »But you also have to compare those CCGT emissions (CO2 and pollution) directly against the ICE emissions, and all of the emissions in the ICE fuel supply chain. And all of the leccy generation emissions for the refinery too, approx 6kWh/gallon.
This 6KWh figure is BS it isn't even 1/10th that numberBUT (big but), BEV's will mostly charge at night, and can use multiple forms of smart charging (such as the Zappi you mention) going forward. This means that they enable the deployment of more RE, and help to allow a greater % penetration of RE into the leccy mix, especially now as we go forward, and can expect greater periods of excess RE generation.
Why would you expect notably greater periods of excessive wind power in the UK when we are closing half the nuclear reactors in 2023/4. The grid is upgrading it's technology so it can go to zero FF before it needs to curtail wind and we are adding two powerful interconntors to Norway which will draw before prices hit zero. Just those three changes will add/free 8GW of power. So the next 10GW or so wind won't do anything but cover those changes. That's about 5 years from now we will be in the same spot as now... About 98% v 2% NG v Wind marginal
There is also another 10GW or so of interconntors to other countries where wind power output correlation is not 100% that is to say we will have another 10GW where we potentially don't have to curtail wind power
The other half of the UK reactors are closing 2028/30 and more interconntors and smart homes are being built
All this says that you shouldn't expect noteably more wind curtailment.in the UK in 2030 than you will see in 2020So not only are BEV's lower CO2 than ICE, lower emissions than ICE, infinitely lower localised pollution than an ICE, but they are also part of the solution to lowering all leccy emissions ....... something ICEV's can not and will not ever do.
Still trying to sell the propaganda that fossil fuels are massively dangerous to health.
Where is the UK NHS savings divided from not being coal anymore?
Lost in the post?
Modern ICE are clean and cause no problems and no health savings will be seen just like the case in reducing/eliminating coal useage0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »In short, RE capacity is growing, whilst FF capacity is falling. For more detail take a look at page 29 for capacity changes from 1996-2018, and page 8 for a quick Q1 generation comparison.
[Edit - Coal capacity is within the 'conventional steam' category. M.]
I believe that these will knock your socks off unless you are in significant denial.
Further edit - probably worth putting some numbers down for easier reading, so from 1996-2018,
FF generation has fallen from ~56GW to ~50GW, but note it peaked at 71GW in 2010.
Nuclear has fallen from ~13GW to ~9GW.
Non hydro renewables have grown from ~2GW to ~44GW, but note the vast bulk in growth is since 2010, when we (and the World) started to take them more seriously.
For a 2010+ breakdown we then see capacity of FF's fall from 71GW to 50GW, nuclear fall from 11GW to 9GW, and RE grow from 9GW to 44GW.
[Bear in mind capacity factors, so we can't compare capacity directly, but we can use additions/reductions to draw conclusions.]
Half the UK nuclear reactors close in 2023/4 the next 3-4 years wind power addition will just about cover that.
Iirc the UK plan is to add 70 units of wind over the 2020-2030 and close about 55 units from the old nukes
7 steps forward 5.5 steps backwards
The grid will still get cleaner because we expect (hope) to import a huge quantity more electricity and that's counted as zero emmissions even if the imported electricity is from a lignite plant over a new UK Germany Interconnector0 -
Won't storage, that could increase rapidly with v2g, mean that we could be marginal wind much more of the time (technically marginal storage but the storage could be filled by wind/nuclear rather than gas) and that storage would mean we wouldn't have to fire up gas to meet wind fluctuations?I think....0
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Won't storage, that could increase rapidly with v2g, mean that we could be marginal wind much more of the time (technically marginal storage but the storage could be filled by wind/nuclear rather than gas) and that storage would mean we wouldn't have to fire up gas to meet wind fluctuations?
Yes at some point but we aren't close to this
Today we are something like 2% v 98% for marginal wind v gas
This figure won't change much over the next 10 years because while we will add a lot of wind power perhaps as much as 20GW (averaging about 8GW output) we will close 14 of the 15 existing nuclear reactors. Adding 70 units wind but losing 55 units nuclear. 70 steps forward 55 steps backwards so we will only be 15 steps down the road
As for storage via the batteries of cars
The UK is building two massive storage infrastructure projects in the form of the two links to Norway
They will be able to absorb 2.8 GW of excess UK wind power. If we have a period of 10h excess wind they can import 28GWh into Norway. This is also more efficient I think 97% return Vs a lot less in charging and discharging a battery
Also currently the technology of the grid is limited so we curtail wind even when we have gas in the system even when prices are negative. This is because we need some inertia and other services. The grid only goes down to about 3.5GW gas and no lower even of there is the wind to go lower. Investments are being out in place to solve this. So this 3.5GW plus the 2.8GW to Norway plus the 6 GW of.lost nuclear makes space for 12.3 GW more wind power assume max correlation of 80% and you are able to install 15GW of offshore wind and be in the same posting as today re curtailment. In short we aren't going to significantly curtail wind in 2030 more so than we do in 20200 -
That's exactly what things like the hornsdale battery in Australia does. Peaker plants don't make sense anymore as batteries do it better and cheaper. As the price of batteries continue to fall the business case for peaker plants is getting harder to make.8kW (4kW WNW, 4kW SSE) 6kW inverter. 6.5kWh battery.0
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Can you confirm your mileage in those two years and if it's mostly urban or motorway
Just done 2 years, 12,000 miles. Stuck commuting 8 miles each way not getting above 40 much. Call it urban driving. When I can go fast, I go fast, when it's slow, I'm saving fuel. Same as in ICE. When I'm stuck I'm efficient but when I can go, I do!
If someone did more motorway miles than me, and drove more slowly, they would probably come out around the same.I didn't make it up I estimated it by taking a power figure and the number of hours in the winter the heating would be on this is for ore heat as well as maintaining cabin temp.
But the kW taken isn't constant, it has to get up to temp, then maintain. And it's already taken out of the m/kWh, so you're double counting. Keep it removed. Your creativity in counting against EVs is incredible!Thanks again.
It would be nice to have actual figures from a hundred+ EV drivers
You've got one, don't you believe me? We're expected to take your figures and estimations. If you do want more, you can bore yourself silly with m/kWh figures over on the speakEV forums.If you are getting the figures you say and the 85% charger efficiency is correct and it works out to 79g/km that indeed is a saving of 25% over an ICE
I am, and you're the one that said 85%. I think it's higher. I know Zoe isn't good at 'slow' AC (7kW!!) but most other cars are 90%+ AFAIK.It will be less over its lifetime as there Re 300kg or so more materials in a BEV than a hybrid
What? I've been carrying the same weight around for 2 years. It's not getting heavier or lighter, and neither will a hybrid. No difference.
ABrass:The marginal argument only holds at the micro level, not the macro
BINGO! This is what I've been getting at!The mix of power doesn't matter
That a house has solar doesn't matter
Proximity to the house doesn't matter.
Whatever station has to step in to provide the power is the emmissions
But what can you do about it?! We, as residents of a country, have an extremely limited amount of control over where our electric comes from (install solar, choose a green tariff). We can use Economy 7, charge our cars overnight, be slightly smarter about when to charge, when it's windy or sunny or away from peak, but that's all we can do.
To say that gas plants are being powered up every time every EV plugs in is grossly misleading, and you are presenting absolute worst case scenarios, as the norm.Adding a lot of wind doesn't hugely increase the times hours when it's marginal wind
"BATTERIES" - as you've actually said!0 -
Martyn1981 wrote: »But what can you do about it?! We, as residents of a country, have an extremely limited amount of control over where our electric comes from (install solar, choose a green tariff). We can use Economy 7, charge our cars overnight, be slightly smarter about when to charge, when it's windy or sunny or away from peak, but that's all we can do.
To say that gas plants are being powered up every time every EV plugs in is grossly misleading, and you are presenting absolute worst case scenarios, as the norm.
How am I taking the worse case scenario?
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php
Which is the controllable energy source ramping up and down to load follow?
Is it the wind or the solar? Or is it the NG and the coal?
Marginal gas and coal is almost always the thing supplying marginal load.
About 98% of the time, the other 2% is indeed wind (and to some extent french nuclear imports but this is already complicated enough before brining that in)0 -
EVs charging overnight are likely to be using a lot of wind power. Nukes are inflexible and so can't be shut down overnight, the wind tends to blow slightly more gently but is still there so wind turbines can still generate but wind can also be curtailed easily and safely.
So, if we're seeing wind curtailment, in particular overnight, then there is no marginal cost to the EV charging at that time at all. So the emissions are zero.8kW (4kW WNW, 4kW SSE) 6kW inverter. 6.5kWh battery.0 -
EVs charging overnight are likely to be using a lot of wind power. Nukes are inflexible and so can't be shut down overnight, the wind tends to blow slightly more gently but is still there so wind turbines can still generate but wind can also be curtailed easily and safely.
So, if we're seeing wind curtailment, in particular overnight, then there is no marginal cost to the EV charging at that time at all. So the emissions are zero.
Yes for about 2% of hours
The other 98%..no0 -
Originally posted by Martyn1981
Me actually, oops.Marginal gas and coal is almost always the thing supplying marginal load.
You seem osbessed with marginal load. I click the Gridwatch link and I see that we're 45% CCGT, 17% Wind, 14% Nuclear and 5% coal.
So, do you agree that if I plug my car in right now, that's the mix that will power my car, or are you going to insist that some man has to stoke the coal fire to help power my car? I think you're getting your scales mixed up. There's 42.5GW demand right now. What effect will my 2kW 3 pin charger, 7kW home charger or 50kW rapid charger have on this?! How much electric is used to run the pumps for refueling ICE cars?!!
You're picking out EVs as what uses the marginal energy. You know that businesses and industry have tariffs based on grid demand. Well, I choose you, personally, in your home. Your home, specifically, runs on coal. You're using the marginal supply. Stoppit, turn everything in your home off!0
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