Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

legacy must be terrified given that the Chinese companies are going after market share, at the cost of margins at the moment.

There is a real case of legacy being mis-managed as well.

I use the example of Ford as I like Ford cars and, all being equal, I would be buying myself a shiny new Mondeo this year.  I've had several Mondeo's in the past, most recently a Focus (which was a stop-gap) plus an old Fiesta (for sale as it is not ULEZ-compliant) and my wife has a Fiesta. 

The Mondeo really is everything I could want from a car - safe, comfortable, good to drive, well-equipped and without the image that attracts the "must be paid too much" comments that can go with some brands.

I cannot simply buy a Mondeo because Ford discontinued it.  Along with a raft of their other models.  There is nothing really in the Ford range to replace the Mondeo, the nearest would be to down-size to a Focus if Ford have re-opened the order books yet.

Add into the mix that I'd like to go EV but Ford don't really have anything to offer here either.  The Mustang is a lot more expensive than a Mondeo and I really prefer just the car rather than the SUV-esque style.

So, Ford are not offering me a solution and I will have to look elsewhere.  Having done so, I cease to be a loyal customer and whatever other brand has the first bite at future repeat business.  A contracted offering does not just affect this cycle of cars but has a lasting effect.

Not all of this mis-management can be blamed on emerging market challengers.
Ford are far from alone in being unable to respond to external factors in an effective way.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

legacy must be terrified given that the Chinese companies are going after market share, at the cost of margins at the moment.

Not all of this mis-management can be blamed on emerging market challengers.
Ford are far from alone in being unable to respond to external factors in an effective way.

Yes, there's been a year of negative news, but I tend not to post it as most is transitory, or small potatoes. Mistakes will be made, but companies need to get onboard the BEV train or be left behind.

Ford I would praise actually. Not because they are doing enough, but because they are taking things seriously at last. When they were surprised at the orders for the BEV F-150 (of course they shouldn't have been surprised!!!!) they doubled, then doubled, then doubled again production numbers. The boss Jim Farley is really talking up BEV's he even said the quiet part out loud recently, comparing Ford ICEV's to BEV's and saying BEV's were better - dangerous (but honest) as legacy need their ICE sales to fund the transition.

GM are still talking the talk, but not doing great. They have a few models, but apart from the Bolt, they are still low production, like the Hummer at about 3/day. They certainly didn't reach the 20 new EV models by 2023, they announced in 2017. The Bolt of course got recalled for battery fires (as did almost every EV using LG Chem batts), but that's just expensive growing pains, but now having to recall them again because the seat belt pretensioners can set fire to the carpet after a crash isn't BEV specific, just car knowledge.

Stellantis are desperately trying to slow down the BEV targets in Europe, claiming the industry isn't ready, but assuming batteries are available, growth is going OK.

Obviously Japan is doing very poorly, be it Toyota, Honda, Mazda, or even the relatively high BEV selling Nissan is now asleep at the wheel.

VW/VWG were doing great, but then they parted ways with Herbert Diess who wanted to act fast(er). For instance his plans for a dedicated BEV factory, as they were taking 30hrs to build a BEV v's 10hrs for Tesla. But now those plans have been delayed, could be end of decade, for short term cash reasons. Also they've been hit really hard by the war in Ukraine, as they got lots of parts from them. This means that they've fallen further behind Tesla, instead of closing the gap. They were roughly 1/4m behind Tesla in 2020, then 1/2m in 2021, and 3/4m in 2022.

And the Chinese are coming.

Combine that with what looks like a recession off the back of the energy price increases, and things will get brutal through to mid decade, and probably remain ugly for legacy auto for the whole decade.

I may have overused this analogy, but for legacy, they can't outrun the bear, so they have to outrun each other instead, and see who's left standing afterwards.


But enough negatives. BEV numbers are growing, the transition is unstoppable now, so an entertaining watch, even if some will be from behind the sofa, like watching Dr Who as a kid. 



Edit - Should have mentioned the Inflation Reduction Act, which kicks in, in the US this year. this offers discounts on BEV's (and some PHEV's), so that will help US auto manufacturers. As it requires certain amounts of production in the US, it's less of a benefit to EV's transported to the US.

But it's causing a lot of confusion at the moment, as nobody is quite sure what is a car/sedan and what is a SUV. That's important as cars get support if their price is below $55k, whilst SUV's get an $80k limit.

GM (Cadillac) think their Lyriq selling in the $60K's is an SUV, but Government says 'no'.

The ID4 FWD 5 seat is a car, but the AWD 5 seat is a SUV.
But, the Tesla Model Y AWD 5 seat is a car (despite being larger than the ID4), but its 7 seat variant is a SUV.

Some of these rules may be based on weight, as the US has traditionally offered 'easier' fuel targets for heavier vehicles, like pick up trucks (yes it sounds crazy), and Tesla's are relatively light BEV's.

Crazy World ..... yet again.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

legacy must be terrified given that the Chinese companies are going after market share, at the cost of margins at the moment.

Not all of this mis-management can be blamed on emerging market challengers.
Ford are far from alone in being unable to respond to external factors in an effective way.

Yes, there's been a year of negative news, but I tend not to post it as most is transitory, or small potatoes. Mistakes will be made, but companies need to get onboard the BEV train or be left behind.

Ford I would praise actually. Not because they are doing enough, but because they are taking things seriously at last. When they were surprised at the orders for the BEV F-150 (of course they shouldn't have been surprised!!!!) they doubled, then doubled, then doubled again production numbers. The boss Jim Farley is really talking up BEV's he even said the quiet part out loud recently, comparing Ford ICEV's to BEV's and saying BEV's were better - dangerous (but honest) as legacy need their ICE sales to fund the transition.

GM are still talking the talk, but not doing great. They have a few models, but apart from the Bolt, they are still low production, like the Hummer at about 3/day. They certainly didn't reach the 20 new EV models by 2023, they announced in 2017. The Bolt of course got recalled for battery fires (as did almost every EV using LG Chem batts), but that's just expensive growing pains, but now having to recall them again because the seat belt pretensioners can set fire to the carpet after a crash isn't BEV specific, just car knowledge.

Stellantis are desperately trying to slow down the BEV targets in Europe, claiming the industry isn't ready, but assuming batteries are available, growth is going OK.

Obviously Japan is doing very poorly, be it Toyota, Honda, Mazda, or even the relatively high BEV selling Nissan is now asleep at the wheel.

VW/VWG were doing great, but then they parted ways with Herbert Diess who wanted to act fast(er). For instance his plans for a dedicated BEV factory, as they were taking 30hrs to build a BEV v's 10hrs for Tesla. But now those plans have been delayed, could be end of decade, for short term cash reasons. Also they've been hit really hard by the war in Ukraine, as they got lots of parts from them. This means that they've fallen further behind Tesla, instead of closing the gap. They were roughly 1/4m behind Tesla in 2020, then 1/2m in 2021, and 3/4m in 2022.

And the Chinese are coming.

Combine that with what looks like a recession off the back of the energy price increases, and things will get brutal through to mid decade, and probably remain ugly for legacy auto for the whole decade.

I may have overused this analogy, but for legacy, they can't outrun the bear, so they have to outrun each other instead, and see who's left standing afterwards.


But enough negatives. BEV numbers are growing, the transition is unstoppable now, so an entertaining watch, even if some will be from behind the sofa, like watching Dr Who as a kid. 



Edit - Should have mentioned the Inflation Reduction Act, which kicks in, in the US this year. this offers discounts on BEV's (and some PHEV's), so that will help US auto manufacturers. As it requires certain amounts of production in the US, it's less of a benefit to EV's transported to the US.

But it's causing a lot of confusion at the moment, as nobody is quite sure what is a car/sedan and what is a SUV. That's important as cars get support if their price is below $55k, whilst SUV's get an $80k limit.

GM (Cadillac) think their Lyriq selling in the $60K's is an SUV, but Government says 'no'.

The ID4 FWD 5 seat is a car, but the AWD 5 seat is a SUV.
But, the Tesla Model Y AWD 5 seat is a car (despite being larger than the ID4), but its 7 seat variant is a SUV.

Some of these rules may be based on weight, as the US has traditionally offered 'easier' fuel targets for heavier vehicles, like pick up trucks (yes it sounds crazy), and Tesla's are relatively light BEV's.

Crazy World ..... yet again.

I did read that Ford have had to fit some heavier parts to the Mustang to get the weight up to qualify as an SUV.

Grumpy_chap

1961Nick said:

I did read that Ford have had to fit some heavier parts to the Mustang to get the weight up to qualify as an SUV.

If true, that would be most absurd.
More weight means less efficient.

michaels

Apparently there are already clear definitions for SUV vs car and these same rules are being applied to the IRA.

Legacy auto were moving from 'traditional' car design to SUV long before EV/covid - see for example Nissan who launched the Qashqai and scrapped the Primera ages ago and had basically replaced the micra with the Juke, because there is more demand/more profitability in this segment.

Covid/the chip shortage accelerated this, limited parts went to the most profitable models and now given that the 'legacy small/non-suv models are unlikely to ever make much profit especially given Chinese/Korean production costs they are not coming back.  Premium market is probably different, people still go for the one upmanship of a 'brand' but where does that leave midmarket players - basically most of the Stellantis brands, Renault Nissan, the rest of the Japanese etc?

Martyn1981

Short range BEV delivery lorries to be built in the UK.

Tevva begins first high-volume production of electric lorries in UK

The truck startup Tevva has become the first company to start high-volume production of electric lorries in the UK.

The company has started making its 7.5 tonne electric truck for customers at a facility in Tilbury, Essex, after receiving European type approval – the regulatory clearance required by all volume manufacturers.

The trucks built this year in Tilbury will go to customers including the Royal Mail and the builders’ supplier Travis Perkins, with the aim of selling 1,000 vehicles in 2023. It has had test vehicles on the road with the delivery company UPS since late 2019.

The Tevva trucks will have a 140-miles range from a 105kWh battery, which is nearly double the size of those used in a standard electric car.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

legacy must be terrified given that the Chinese companies are going after market share, at the cost of margins at the moment.

There is a real case of legacy being mis-managed as well.

I use the example of Ford as I like Ford cars and, all being equal, I would be buying myself a shiny new Mondeo this year.  I've had several Mondeo's in the past, most recently a Focus (which was a stop-gap) plus an old Fiesta (for sale as it is not ULEZ-compliant) and my wife has a Fiesta. 

The Mondeo really is everything I could want from a car - safe, comfortable, good to drive, well-equipped and without the image that attracts the "must be paid too much" comments that can go with some brands.

I cannot simply buy a Mondeo because Ford discontinued it.  Along with a raft of their other models.  There is nothing really in the Ford range to replace the Mondeo, the nearest would be to down-size to a Focus if Ford have re-opened the order books yet.

Add into the mix that I'd like to go EV but Ford don't really have anything to offer here either.  The Mustang is a lot more expensive than a Mondeo and I really prefer just the car rather than the SUV-esque style.

So, Ford are not offering me a solution and I will have to look elsewhere.  Having done so, I cease to be a loyal customer and whatever other brand has the first bite at future repeat business.  A contracted offering does not just affect this cycle of cars but has a lasting effect.

Not all of this mis-management can be blamed on emerging market challengers.
Ford are far from alone in being unable to respond to external factors in an effective way.

Hiya GC. I saw this article today, and thought it might be of interest to you regarding Ford, though I appreciate this is a US sales article.

I posted it because I found the percentage of Ford BEV sales interesting. The article suggests it was ~4.5% in Dec, and ~3.5% for the year. Well ..... that got me thinking, that the number was similar to US sales as a whole. I haven't found an exact figure for 2022 (yet), but it seems to be around 5-6% PEV's, with BEV's accounting for 75%+ of those.

So, Ford's BEV sales are inline with US sales, which seems like a very good thing. Obviously I could say being ahead of the curve is better, but they need sales volume and revenue to transition. So just as a rough guide, their sales seem reasonable, and suggest they are taking the BEVolution seriously?

[Just for interest, California BEV sales are much higher (as a %age), and more inline with Europe, and typically where Cali leads, the rest of the US follows.]

Ford EVs = 4.5% Of Ford USA Sales In December

Ford started to arrive on the electric vehicle scene in 2022. With the hot Ford Mustang Mach-E, the solid Ford F-150 Lightning, and the utilitarian Ford E-Transit, Ford has three compelling electric vehicles. This doesn’t compare to the many fossil fuel vehicles it sells, but at least it’s off the blocks. Now, how is it doing with these EV models?
For the year as a whole, 3.5% of Ford’s sales in 2022 were sales of these 100%-electric vehicles. However, the sales and the brand vehicle share rose at the end of the year, reaching 4.5% of Ford’s sales in December 2022.

Martyn1981

I've got a soft spot for Polestar, and now I've got a lot of respect for one of their execs.

Polestar Exec Goes After Toyota For Its Anti-EV Strategy

Fredricka Klaren, an executive responsible for sustainability at Polestar, has a clear look at what the future should bring, and she shared some words with the media about Polestar's role in it. Klaren also has strong opinions about what other companies should be doing, and she used Toyota as an example of what not to do.

While talking with the media in Sydney, Klaren made it clear that automakers must be focusing on EVs. She believes there shouldn't be anything mass-produced aside from EVs by 2030. Some fear that even 2030 is too late, and waiting any longer will mean we've completely ignored the science. 

JKenH

Arval pre-orders 10,000 solar-powered Lightyear 2 electric cars

“Our ambition is to lease 700,000 electrified vehicles as part of our global fleet by 2025, and we look forward to welcoming 10,000 Lightyear 2 cars, that help us to reach that goal and more importantly, further support our customers with an optimal solution that answers their energy transition needs and the infrastructure challenge in Europe.”

https://fleetworld.co.uk/arval-pre-orders-10000-solar-powered-lightyear-2-electric-cars/

JKenH

Wyoming proposes to stop the sale of new electric vehicles by 2035

I thought it was April 1st for a minute.

https://www.computing.co.uk/news/4062705/wyoming-proposes-stop-sale-electric-vehicles-2035