Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

EV sales in the UK predicted to see 300% growth by 2030

https://airqualitynews.com/2022/06/20/ev-sales-in-the-uk-predicted-to-see-300-growth-by-2030/

600,000 BEVs on UK roads by 2030 ... 40,000 were registered in March alone & there are already about 450,000 on the road now! The 600,000 in the Uk should be attained late this year or early 2023.

Hi. Looking at Zap Map there's a chance that this month the UK has reached (or is about to reach) 500,000 BEV's on the road. That's quite a milestone.

Looking at the article it links to research from Compare the Market. That seems compromised, suggesting it's based on past data, including a total UK BEV figure by 2021 end of 155,753 and for 2030 end - 596,713.

It did cross my mind that they were using annual sales, not cumulative. However the statement after the table does strongly suggest the figures are cumulative:

Germany is predicted to see a significant increase in the number of electric vehicles on its roads by 2030, with figures rising from 336,824 in 2021 to 1,234,056 in 2030, an increase of 266%.

Also the number of UK BEV sales for 2021 was 190,727 not 155,753.

So not really sure where they've gone so wrong, perhaps just a misinterpretation of the data. But their article and linked articles are massively understating the speed of the transition.

I suspect the BEV sales figure in 2030 alone will be about 3x their estimated total to 2030, assuming of course that supply can ramp fast enough.

EricMears

JKenH said:
I am increasingly coming returning to the conclusion I reached 3-4 years ago that EVs make exceedingly good choices for two car households where the alternative vehicle is ICE but as sole transport for a family they are not first choice. deadline as they keep doing with FM radio in the UK.

It's really not valid to extrapolate from one particular journey to EV usage in general. !

In your position,  I'd have stopped long before the battery got down to 20-odd %.  Afraid these days the chances of finding a rapid charger available on a MSA are pretty slim but you wouldn't have had to go far out of your way to find an alternative.

There are for instance an Osprey at Bourne, a Morrisons at Stamford,  several rapids in Peterborough, one at Tesco in Huntingdon, another at Morrisons in St Ives 

thevilla

EricMears said:

JKenH said:
I am increasingly coming returning to the conclusion I reached 3-4 years ago that EVs make exceedingly good choices for two car households where the alternative vehicle is ICE but as sole transport for a family they are not first choice. deadline as they keep doing with FM radio in the UK.

It's really not valid to extrapolate from one particular journey to EV usage in general. !

In your position,  I'd have stopped long before the battery got down to 20-odd %.  Afraid these days the chances of finding a rapid charger available on a MSA are pretty slim but you wouldn't have had to go far out of your way to find an alternative.

There are for instance an Osprey at Bourne, a Morrisons at Stamford,  several rapids in Peterborough, one at Tesco in Huntingdon, another at Morrisons in St Ives 

But if you're considering moving from ICE to EV would you like to be told you must always fill up with half a "tank" still available.  I don't think so and that is JKenH's point I think.

I saw or read a bloke from Osprey somewhere (sorry to be vague) who admitted this year will be poor as charger rollouts have stalled with Covid and component shortages.  He reckoned by the end of this year and into next a new round of investment will see rapid growth in rollouts to catch up with increased EV numbers.  Let's hope so and also hope that they're not clustered around the south east.  My local town Telford is a relative charger desert and mid Wales, a favourite haunt, isn't any better (Aberystwyth isn't bad but don't tell anyone).

JKenH

EricMears said:

JKenH said:
I am increasingly coming returning to the conclusion I reached 3-4 years ago that EVs make exceedingly good choices for two car households where the alternative vehicle is ICE but as sole transport for a family they are not first choice. deadline as they keep doing with FM radio in the UK.

It's really not valid to extrapolate from one particular journey to EV usage in general. !

In your position,  I'd have stopped long before the battery got down to 20-odd %.  Afraid these days the chances of finding a rapid charger available on a MSA are pretty slim but you wouldn't have had to go far out of your way to find an alternative.

There are for instance an Osprey at Bourne, a Morrisons at Stamford,  several rapids in Peterborough, one at Tesco in Huntingdon, another at Morrisons in St Ives 

There are indeed chargers around if one is prepared to go off route which is what I had to do as a last resort. I had also stopped before I got down to 20% on my way down to Cambridge but the only Chademo at Cambridge was busy and I didn’t have time to wait as I was meeting a train. My route to Cambridge was A1 (from Newark) then A14 which is the quickest and easiest route and the one that most people would take. It is quite a compromise to have to avoid major trunk routes and divert through a succession of market towns when there is a direct route. It all adds time and there is still no guarantee that the charger you are aiming for will be free. I’m not saying journeys are impossible, it’s just highly likely that your charging plans, however well thought out may not work out. You have to build in a significant time buffer (in addition to the actual time charging) if you have an appointment. You may be lucky and have a smooth journey or you might waste hours waiting/diverting. It can also be stressful particularly if you have other people in the car. (When I drove to mid Wales before Xmas I made a list of almost every charger on or near the route I might use for both directions. It’s so time consuming.

Just another example. Today I drove my motorhome down to Dorset. On the way we stopped at Northampton services (J15A M1) where I had a leg stretch before going back to the van for a cuppa. As I do, I checked out the charging situation and saw an e-tron charging and an e-Niro waiting on the single Gridserve charger. Half an hour later we strolled over to the services building to use the facilities and when I came out I saw the same 2 cars there with the e-Niro owner pacing around and no sign of the e-trim owner. The e-tron was at 73% and had added 43kwh. As the owner was awol that situation might persist  for some time. Now contrast that with my last visit there in my Leaf when I rolled up to the charger, plugged in and got a healthy charge. It is just pot luck. How anyone using an electric car for business manages, I just don’t know. 

When I got in my motorhome this morning for a 250 mile drive I hadn’t a clue how much fuel was in it and it didn’t matter. I know I can pull into any fuel station en route and top up in 10 minutes. No waiting, no planning, no hassle. 

Electric cars are great to drive, extremely convenient to charge at home, cheap to run and for many people very tax efficient - that’s really why most people buy them - but they entail a significant change (compromise) to how one goes about long journeys which doesn’t always become apparent until you use one. That’s fine when you go into it happy to make that compromise but not everyone will be, particularly when it is forced on them.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

shinytop said:

Martyn1981 said:

Here's an odd one. Article referenced in a Youtube vid of EV news, that made me go look for it. It seems that Hyundai / Kia is to invest almost twice as much money in ICE development and production facilities, as it's putting into EV's despite recent news about them cutting ICE investment.

I have to assume that there's more to the story, as investing ~$42bn in 'expanding' ICE facilities seems somewhat odd.

Hyundai to invest almost $70 billion in South Korea

Hyundai Motor Group has revealed plans to invest 63 trillion won, or $AU69.6 billion, in South Korea over the next three years, with a specific focus on growing its electric car production capabilities.

As part of the investment, the group will commit 21 trillion won ($AU23.2 billion) to the expansion of its electric car production operations in South Korea, with the goal of building 1.44 million EVs a year in the country by 2030.

If achieved, this would account for 45 per cent of the group's electric car production globally.

However, the automaker will also maintain its investment in the development of internal combustion-engined (ICE) cars, with 38 trillion won committed to the expansion of ICE production facilities in South Korea, according to The Korea Herald.

That's despite overseas reports suggesting Hyundai and Kia have paused the development of new petrol and diesel engines, in favour of electric drivetrains.

Why?  It's going to be a long time before a lot of the world has the infrastructure for, or can afford, the current EV offerings.  They are going to want new, efficient ICE cars in the meantime and someone is going to have to supply them.  And it makes sense to make these ICE cars as efficient and as efficiently, as possible.  Or is everyone going to have to drive old ICE rust-buckets and/or 50 mile range Leafs nobody else wants until 2040 (or whenever) ?

 

I agree. I drove from north west Lincolnshire to Cambridge at the weekend for a reunion with university friends. One of them who has solar panels and a Prius was particularly keen for me to share my experiences of EVs as he was considering the switch. 

Having looked at charging stations around Cambridge I did seriously consider taking the Picanto (as among other things I was expecting a wet journey) and it was only on Saturday morning I decided I really should take the Leaf in principle.

I had to pick the Prius owner and  another friend up from Cambridge station on the way to the hotel and planned a charging stop at Cambridge services on the way. Unfortunately upon arrival the single Chademo charger there was not available as there was someone already using the CCS connector. I had ruled out the only other Chademo charger in Cambridge as it was on the far side of the town and it would have taken me too long to get there, get a charge (if it was free) and be in time for the station pick up. Not too much of a problem, I thought, as I had 20 odd % of my battery remaining and I decided I would just get a charge on the way home but unless I had a very long charging session I would need to stop again.  (The Leaf slows charging down significantly after 60% and is down to below 20kw at 90% which is the minimum I would need to get home).

Before leaving my hotel I checked that the Chademo station was free at Cambridge services and set off there. When I arrived both parking bays for that charging point were occupied with both cars plugged in. The car on the CCS plug was at 55% and I could see from Zap-Map that the Leaf had been plugged in for 4 minutes on the Chademo and so was waiting to charge. Neither car was occupied so I couldn’t ascertain how long they might be there. Had it just been the car charging on CCS and the adjacent bay empty I would have waited but as it was I could potentially have had to wait an hour to get on the Chademo. 

The next, and most convenient, charger was BP Pulse in Huntingdon, 12 miles away and I had 12% battery remaining. Zap-Map was showing there were 2 Chademo connectors both free so I set off there driving very conservatively and then, nearly there, missed the turning off the roundabout which was marked ‘hotel and racecourse only’ thinking it must be the next exit for the charger which was still half a mile distant. I found myself on a slip road down to a dual carriageway. Fortunately the slip road wasn’t too busy and I pulled up. I couldn’t see how far it would be before the next junction where I could turn round and with no range showing and battery at 5% I made the decision to reverse back up the slip road rather than run out of battery. (Yes, it was wrong and, yes, perhaps I panicked but faced with the prospect of being stranded with a flat battery I would do it again). Despite three or four cars blowing their horns at me (even when I was stationary) I made it safely to the BP Pulse chargers which were at the hotel and fortunately they were free and working. I spent 50 minutes charging to 87% which was enough to get me home without stopping again. 

I have had a look on Zap-Map today, and invite anyone else to do the same and correct me, but the charging situation in Cambridge itself is very poor, particularly if you need to rapid charge a Leaf.

The point of this story is that people are right to be concerned about the state of charging in the UK and as long as this persists those likely to still be considering buying ICE cars for some time yet. I consider myself to be an experienced EV driver (and public charger user) and almost every long journey I do that needs a charging stop(s) I encounter some issue. I love driving my Leaf and provided I am staying within its range can’t honestly think of a better car (for the money) either ICE, PHEV or EV. Those times I have to travel outside its range, however, I am faced with foreboding every journey. That, even before yesterday’s experience, I  considered taking an 11 year old Picanto for my Cambridge trip when I have a very comfortable 2 year old car,  perhaps says a lot about EVs. After yesterday next time I won’t just be considering it, I will be taking it. And that is me travelling on my own. Imagine someone with a young family, an elderly relative, or someone with special needs all of which want to see the journey completed in the shortest time possible. 

I recounted my experience to my son today. He told me yesterday that he took his young family for a day out in his diesel Astra rather than his Leaf. He worked out that his round trip was going to be within the range of the Leaf but there was no ‘headroom’. If he got diverted the range might be marginal and if there was a change of plan as can happen as the day develops he would be limited in choice of alternative destinations. He is an EV enthusiast but he is pragmatic. 

According to Google Maps my whole journey (without stops) was supposed to take around 2h10m. (Currently it is showing as 2h13m and on Saturday it was 2h7m). My journey yesterday took 3h30m, 1h20m longer than Google estimates were I doing it in an ICE car, yet I only actually spent 50 minutes charging and I completed the drive home from charging at Huntingdon faster than estimated. The other 40 minutes plus were wasted going off route twice to charging stations, checking the status of chargers, planning an additional stop and driving at 50mph to make sure I reached the charger. That doesn’t even take into account the abortive stop on Saturday.

I am not the only one having these experiences and recounting them to others.The more EVs hit the road the more commonplace these experiences which tend to be shared with others become. It does not surprise me that there is still a deep grained suspicion of EVs among the general public. One of the 3 friends I met up with wants to move to an EV for environmental reasons the other 2 don’t for practical reasons. They may be my age but they are not knuckle dragging boneheads. One is a non exec director of an AIM listed start up tech company. Beyond the cost savings which they can see, they just see the impracticality and inconvenience of EVs for their lifestyle.

I am increasingly coming returning to the conclusion I reached 3-4 years ago that EVs make exceedingly good choices for two car households where the alternative vehicle is ICE but as sole transport for a family they are not first choice. As long as the tax advantages (both in terms of income tax savings and lack of tax on fuel) of EVs are in place they will be an attractive choice for a significant proportion of car users but without those incentives and for those for whom those incentives are not significant it may be a while before they become a popular choice on their own merits. There will always be those around like me for whom the pleasure of driving or other emotional issues influence choice but for the vast majority of the population a car has to meet the practical needs of the buyer and there is still a long way to go there; not because of EVs themselves but because of the charging network. For those who say it is improving all the time, I would say that in my personal experience charging has if anything become more problematic. I think the fact that EV owners virtually always trade up to new EVs with longer ranges suggests that they silently agree. 

I suspect that Hyundai/Kia have worked out ICE vehicles are going to be around for a lot longer than governments in Europe are suggesting. Perhaps governments in the face of popular opinion will extend the deadline as they keep doing with FM radio in the UK.

Normally if I can avoid public charging by driving conservatively I will but I had a round trip to NW London on Saturday and didn't bother to see if I could just make it as the guessometer on the leaf was suggesting as there seemed to be at least a dozen chargers on my route with no detour.  IN the end we stopped at the 4th one of the 12, got straight on the electricity at Ikea and by the time we had bought frozen meatballs (and no we didn't trail and the store first) - a whole 10 minutes we had added twice what we needed to complete the trip.  We would have got home with minus 4% without the stop but could easily have hypermiled had we needed to and probably would have taken less total time than the 10 minute stop.

Only time I went to Cambridge I charged for free at the Nissan dealers although agree they are the wrong side of town.

I’m quite lucky that I can usually find a free charger when I go to my Tesco. I think in most urban areas, if one charger isn’t available you can find another one not too far away. There are two Instavolts in Gainsborough and I can’t ever recall seeing them both in use at the same time - but it’s not really on the way to anywhere and anyone local will have charged at home. The problem is belting up and down trunk roads where there provision is poor and competition for them is high. Perhaps Cambridge is just at that distance from London that a lot of people travelling north up the M11 find it the perfect place to top up. I think Rugby is similar where even Tesla chargers can have queues at times. 

I don’t think it is about absolute numbers or numbers per head of population, it’s about working out where we need them. As we get EV penetration into terrace house and flat dwellers we will need the local chargers but at the moment I think most people do charge at home/work whenever possible and it is the long distance traffic we need to be catering for. 

Martyn1981

EricMears said:

JKenH said:
I am increasingly coming returning to the conclusion I reached 3-4 years ago that EVs make exceedingly good choices for two car households where the alternative vehicle is ICE but as sole transport for a family they are not first choice. deadline as they keep doing with FM radio in the UK.

It's really not valid to extrapolate from one particular journey to EV usage in general. !

In your position,  I'd have stopped long before the battery got down to 20-odd %.  Afraid these days the chances of finding a rapid charger available on a MSA are pretty slim but you wouldn't have had to go far out of your way to find an alternative.

There are for instance an Osprey at Bourne, a Morrisons at Stamford,  several rapids in Peterborough, one at Tesco in Huntingdon, another at Morrisons in St Ives 

Yep. We've been fully BEV for two years now, and have had no problems whatsoever.

I suspect reality for most sits somewhere between perfect, and total disaster, rather than at either extreme end. Certainly the impression I get from the vast majority of BEV'ers on here.

Perhaps we need a BEV discussion thread, but my thought was that that was better left for the Motoring Forum, hence a G&E thread for BEV news.

Edit - Actually I was thinking that perhaps the solution would be for BEV'ers to give him some tips/lessons, but perhaps a BEV advice thread would help some others too, and those pondering dipping their toes in the water, but concerned about some of the negativity they are seeing/hearing?

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

EricMears said:

JKenH said:
I am increasingly coming returning to the conclusion I reached 3-4 years ago that EVs make exceedingly good choices for two car households where the alternative vehicle is ICE but as sole transport for a family they are not first choice. deadline as they keep doing with FM radio in the UK.

It's really not valid to extrapolate from one particular journey to EV usage in general. !

In your position,  I'd have stopped long before the battery got down to 20-odd %.  Afraid these days the chances of finding a rapid charger available on a MSA are pretty slim but you wouldn't have had to go far out of your way to find an alternative.

There are for instance an Osprey at Bourne, a Morrisons at Stamford,  several rapids in Peterborough, one at Tesco in Huntingdon, another at Morrisons in St Ives 

Edit - Actually I was thinking that perhaps the solution would be for BEV'ers to give him some tips/lessons, but perhaps a BEV advice thread would help some others too, and those pondering dipping their toes in the water, but concerned about some of the negativity they are seeing/hearing?

That’s very generous of you, Mart. Already some good advice has been provided by Eric, such as avoid MSAs (the chance of finding a rapid charger available are slim). Stop long before your battery gets down to 20% (ie. don’t expect to be able to use the full range of your EV so you make more stops). Avoid the quickest/most direct route on major roads that Google maps might suggest and instead meander through market towns like Bourne. It’s only going to add around 20 minutes to your journey. 

These suggestions alone would have improved my weekend journey so much and avoided this unnecessary negativity. It’s a shame they didn’t arrive a little earlier as I could have imparted them to the gentleman at Northampton services who had been waiting for over half an hour to charge his e-Niro.

Edit: it will be reassuring for prospective owners to learn that in 2 years you have had no problems whatsoever. I would imagine when you first had an EV you also had an ICE car as well so perhaps you didn’t push your luck with long runs in the EV like I do.  When you went all EV you opted for a Tesla with a 300mile+ range and access to Tesla’s supercharger network avoiding many of the problems we face using the public charging network. That was understandable but still an interesting choice for someone who had never had a problem with public chargers.

I think the charging problem has got worse recently (as did the guy with the E-Niro today) and perhaps having access to what is without doubt an excellent Tesla network has shielded you from the day to day issues many of us now face with the public charging network. 

As I have pointed out before, it hardly seems to be a coincidence that most of the EV owners on here have switched to cars with substantially bigger batteries. 

I could honestly say that if I had a 300mile range EV I am 100% certain I would never have had a problem with the public charging network;  I would never have needed to rely on it.

EricMears

JKenH said:

I could honestly say that if I had a 300mile range EV I am 100% certain I would never have had a problem with the public charging network;  I would never have needed to rely on it.

My Leaf (e+) has a nominal range of 250 miles although it's safer to assume only 200.

I went to Cambridge earlier in the year and although I could theoretically have done that without a refuelling break I needed to stop for a comfort break which I did just South of Leicester and topped up battery at same time

1961Nick

JKenH said:

I could honestly say that if I had a 300mile range EV I am 100% certain I would never have had a problem with the public charging network;  I would never have needed to rely on it.

On Saturday mine is a year old. It's done 18,000 miles & is yet to visit a public charger out of necessity. I did use one once, but only because the parking spaces were 50% wider than normal negating the possibility of a door ding & the electricity was free.

silverwhistle

EricMears said:

It's really not valid to extrapolate from one particular journey to EV usage in general. !

No, these individual stories don't help with the overall picture. Does the charging situation need to improve? Undoubtedly, although CCS is where the focus now lies. JKenH, do you think you have been affected by having Chademo?

But my own situation with never having used a public charger in anger (testing purposes only) is also not too helpful for many people either, with different usage patterns. There are compromises to be made on a grid of car cost and range against regular and occasional needs but to say you should have an ICE for edge cases is not a solution for many.

There are gaps in provision, certainly, but the increase in 4/6 place chargers and at faster speeds even in the last 6 months is encouraging. Warn new entrants by all means, and outline the compromises they may encounter, but I think for most the benefits outweigh the disadvantages.

I hope to get more free mileage via my solar panels and granny charger tomorrow, so I admit that benefit maybe sways my opinion! ;-)