Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Martyn1981

I think this is BEV news, or at least 'anti-ICEV' news.

It seems that European emissions targets may be too low/easy to drive the transition to BEV's as fast as it otherwise could be. But also acknowledges that the charging infrastructure rollout is falling behind the pace of the EV rollout.

If I'm reading it correctly, it's not that a transition to BEV's isn't happening quickly, just that the targets leave enough room for progress to be less than it could otherwise be. That's assuming of course that ICEV's are still an economic choice in the late 2020's, and I'm thinking (hoping) that they simply won't be.

Major European carmakers will hit emissions targets too easily, research shows

Weak EU vehicle emissions targets could allow Europe’s biggest carmakers to produce millions more petrol and diesel cars than necessary up to 2030 in a “wasted decade” for cutting carbon pollution, according to a report.

Analysis of car industry sales plans for electric vehicles shared exclusively with the Guardian by Transport and Environment (T&E), a thinktank and campaign group, showed that manufacturers could hit their 2030 EU carbon emissions targets with four years to spare.

However, the report warned that manufacturers could stick closely to their minimum requirements, as has been the case in recent years – opening up the potential for the industry to sell their more profitable petrol and diesel marques.

Based on the car industry’s publicly stated commitments for EV production, the study showed there was a gap between what could be achieved and where sales volumes would be if they are kept in line with the EU emissions rules.

A spokesperson for ACEA said manufacturers were fully committed to bringing CO2 emissions down to zero and supporting the EU’s goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2050.

They said that car industry investment in EVs was outpacing funding for charging infrastructure, warning that failure to increase spending on the network could lead to electric car uptake stalling.

“The auto industry’s efforts must be met with the same level of ambition by the EU and its member states. It is essential that all players work together to create the right supportive framework that will drive consumers towards cleaner mobility options, and thus achieve our common goal of reaching climate neutrality in Europe.”

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

That's assuming of course that ICEV's are still an economic choice in the late 2020's, and I'm thinking (hoping) that they simply won't be.

I accept your "hoping" and thinking that would be nice.

It could be argued that ICEs are not a great economic choice even now, if whole life cost is assessed an EV will be favourable in many cases.

Most people are not looking at whole life cost, but simply the cost to acquire.

By late 2020's, some of the tax incentives that favour EVs may have fallen away.

What could happen is that ICE manufacturers have a raft of old stock and sell ICEs at "fire-sale" prices right up until the last allowed date in 2029 (or whatever the date is).  So, the new decade will be kick-started with a load of bucket-list ICEs brand new / pre-reg to dispose of the stock while the EV manufacturers have been keeping prices robust.  The pre-reg ICEs might take a couple of year to finally trickle out of being available.  That approach allows the automotive manufacturers to squeeze the maximum value from old technology and new at the same time.

I hope my "could" is not what happens, but just look at the large numbers of EU5 cars that swamped the final months of sale prior to EU6 being mandatory.  Why should we think the manufacturers will act any more responsibly than the legislators require them to by the end of the decade?

shinytop

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

That's assuming of course that ICEV's are still an economic choice in the late 2020's, and I'm thinking (hoping) that they simply won't be.

I accept your "hoping" and thinking that would be nice.

It could be argued that ICEs are not a great economic choice even now, if whole life cost is assessed an EV will be favourable in many cases.

Most people are not looking at whole life cost, but simply the cost to acquire.

By late 2020's, some of the tax incentives that favour EVs may have fallen away.

What could happen is that ICE manufacturers have a raft of old stock and sell ICEs at "fire-sale" prices right up until the last allowed date in 2029 (or whatever the date is).  So, the new decade will be kick-started with a load of bucket-list ICEs brand new / pre-reg to dispose of the stock while the EV manufacturers have been keeping prices robust.  The pre-reg ICEs might take a couple of year to finally trickle out of being available.  That approach allows the automotive manufacturers to squeeze the maximum value from old technology and new at the same time.

I hope my "could" is not what happens, but just look at the large numbers of EU5 cars that swamped the final months of sale prior to EU6 being mandatory.  Why should we think the manufacturers will act any more responsibly than the legislators require them to by the end of the decade?

But like EU5 diesels in London's ULEZ, ICE cars will simply be priced off the road by local authorities.  If people know that's coming, nobody will buy them.

CKhalvashi

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

That's assuming of course that ICEV's are still an economic choice in the late 2020's, and I'm thinking (hoping) that they simply won't be.

I accept your "hoping" and thinking that would be nice.

It could be argued that ICEs are not a great economic choice even now, if whole life cost is assessed an EV will be favourable in many cases.

Most people are not looking at whole life cost, but simply the cost to acquire.

By late 2020's, some of the tax incentives that favour EVs may have fallen away.

What could happen is that ICE manufacturers have a raft of old stock and sell ICEs at "fire-sale" prices right up until the last allowed date in 2029 (or whatever the date is).  So, the new decade will be kick-started with a load of bucket-list ICEs brand new / pre-reg to dispose of the stock while the EV manufacturers have been keeping prices robust.  The pre-reg ICEs might take a couple of year to finally trickle out of being available.  That approach allows the automotive manufacturers to squeeze the maximum value from old technology and new at the same time.

I hope my "could" is not what happens, but just look at the large numbers of EU5 cars that swamped the final months of sale prior to EU6 being mandatory.  Why should we think the manufacturers will act any more responsibly than the legislators require them to by the end of the decade?

The issue for us comes in the form of funding to an extent.

An EV works out considerably cheaper while we can get funding at 5%. In some regions we've either expanded into or hope to in the near future, that funding can't be obtained at less than 15-20% APR. This at the moment pushes the whole life ownership cost to us in favour of ICEV's. My Ioniq was partially financed at an average effective interest rate of around 2.1% annually with the biggest chunk to be paid at around the 2 year mark, while I legally own the car outright. I can't finance business vehicles in a similar way due to company BT deals not being as readily available and the higher risk (and therefore costs) associated with business lending.

There is an argument that we can run vehicles for 3-4 years in lower interest rate markets before transferring them later on. That comes with challenges of its own, but does mean an extra 4 years of waiting in this scenario.

I personally may be a 'normal' driver in terms of my normal daily commute, but definitely not in terms of what we are using business vehicles for. The issue I'm hoping will be resolved is both in terms of 9 seaters with additional range and double cab-in vans, which Vauxhall have to their credit solved so far, but with huge waiting lists and a less than ideal (but perfectly manageable on paper for around 80% of our operations in 2019) range.

As we get back to normal I'm sure we can evaluate the situation far better, however we are still not operating normally (and still only at about breakeven as we ramp up operations) and I'm not known for spending large amounts of money on a whim. That said, the vehicles we buy today I'm sure will not be the same technology as the vehicles replacing them in 3-4 years time, which means as the technology develops we will be able to cut out more emissions than at present.

ABrass

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

That's assuming of course that ICEV's are still an economic choice in the late 2020's, and I'm thinking (hoping) that they simply won't be.

I accept your "hoping" and thinking that would be nice.

It could be argued that ICEs are not a great economic choice even now, if whole life cost is assessed an EV will be favourable in many cases.

Most people are not looking at whole life cost, but simply the cost to acquire.

By late 2020's, some of the tax incentives that favour EVs may have fallen away.

What could happen is that ICE manufacturers have a raft of old stock and sell ICEs at "fire-sale" prices right up until the last allowed date in 2029 (or whatever the date is).  So, the new decade will be kick-started with a load of bucket-list ICEs brand new / pre-reg to dispose of the stock while the EV manufacturers have been keeping prices robust.  The pre-reg ICEs might take a couple of year to finally trickle out of being available.  That approach allows the automotive manufacturers to squeeze the maximum value from old technology and new at the same time.

I hope my "could" is not what happens, but just look at the large numbers of EU5 cars that swamped the final months of sale prior to EU6 being mandatory.  Why should we think the manufacturers will act any more responsibly than the legislators require them to by the end of the decade?

I doubt it, car manufacturers can slow or stop production if they start to build up a surplus.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

That's assuming of course that ICEV's are still an economic choice in the late 2020's, and I'm thinking (hoping) that they simply won't be.

I accept your "hoping" and thinking that would be nice.

It could be argued that ICEs are not a great economic choice even now, if whole life cost is assessed an EV will be favourable in many cases.

Most people are not looking at whole life cost, but simply the cost to acquire.

By late 2020's, some of the tax incentives that favour EVs may have fallen away.

What could happen is that ICE manufacturers have a raft of old stock and sell ICEs at "fire-sale" prices right up until the last allowed date in 2029 (or whatever the date is).  So, the new decade will be kick-started with a load of bucket-list ICEs brand new / pre-reg to dispose of the stock while the EV manufacturers have been keeping prices robust.  The pre-reg ICEs might take a couple of year to finally trickle out of being available.  That approach allows the automotive manufacturers to squeeze the maximum value from old technology and new at the same time.

I hope my "could" is not what happens, but just look at the large numbers of EU5 cars that swamped the final months of sale prior to EU6 being mandatory.  Why should we think the manufacturers will act any more responsibly than the legislators require them to by the end of the decade?

I thought 'fire-sale' would imply selling at a loss? Plus they won't start panicking at the end of 2029, the problem will start once price parity gets closer, which may be around mid decade, and they'll only be able to sell ICEV's at zero profit for a short time, especially if they don't expect the market to recover.

I can imagine a month or two of over production, and the ability to store them temporarily, but not years worth. When this happens it's typically because of a temporary downturn in demand, but it's hard to believe that as demand for ICEV's falls, the legacy manufacturers will remain in full denial, and continue to build as many ICEV's, after all, without quick sales to the dealerships, their cashflow would collapse.

Lastly, whilst we humans are irrational to an extent, I honestly believe that new car purchases are considered to a significant extent, and once the majority of the public starts to believe that BEV's will replace ICEV's, the Osborne Effect will kick in based simply on the potential of making a big expensive mistake, even for those who don't necessarily appreciate (yet) that ICEV's are an inferior product. But that's just my opinion, and there may be time before BEV dominance arrives, for chips and Covid issues to improve, and for ICE sales to rise, but I'm thinking they may now have begun their decline?

EVandPV

Received an email from Myenergi today looking for people with a Zappi EV charger to take part in a trial whereby they limit the charge rate during peak times with a couple of Amazon vouchers as an incentive.
Was quite happy to sign up given we usually charge from 00.30 to 4.30am anyway.

Grumpy_chap

CKhalvashi said:

I personally may be a 'normal' driver in terms of my normal daily commute, but definitely not in terms of what we are using business vehicles for. The issue I'm hoping will be resolved is both in terms of 9 seaters with additional range and double cab-in vans, which Vauxhall have to their credit solved so far, but with huge waiting lists and a less than ideal (but perfectly manageable on paper for around 80% of our operations in 2019) range.

I'm not an expert but, as I understand it, UK BIK for a company EV car is very favourable but UK BIK for a company EV van is no different to an ICE van.  That makes the company EV van less attractive (or no more attractive) to a van-user than a company ICE van.

I am entirely happy if the BIK rules have changed and the above is incorrect.


I like the comments around the end of ICE towards latter-half 2020's.  Lots of speculation - let's see how reality progresses.

EVandPV said:

Received an email from Myenergi today looking for people with a Zappi EV charger to take part in a trial whereby they limit the charge rate during peak times with a couple of Amazon vouchers as an incentive.
Was quite happy to sign up given we usually charge from 00.30 to 4.30am anyway.

Will this type of scheme reach a point whereby the electric grid eventually determines that all the time is peak time?  As we move to ASHP and more EV's, would the profile of electricity use not tend towards a flatter profile throughout the day - night cycle in any case?

Coastalwatch

with a couple of Amazon vouchers as an incentive.

Why do companies believe Amazon vouchers to be an incentive. Due to their questionable tax avoidence schemes they are the last resort for me in terms of shopping. That coupled with their owners fascination for accelerating global warming by the pointless exercise of sending people up into the stratosphere for no benefit to mankind whatsoever is simply beyond comprehension!

EVandPV

Coastalwatch said:

with a couple of Amazon vouchers as an incentive.

Why do companies believe Amazon vouchers to be an incentive. Due to their questionable tax avoidence schemes they are the last resort for me in terms of shopping. That coupled with their owners fascination for accelerating global warming by the pointless exercise of sending people up into the stratosphere for no benefit to mankind whatsoever is simply beyond comprehension!

I can't argue with any of that but I have to admit to using them fairly frequently simply due the convenience. 
It's also hard to find an alternative retailer for certain things these days, sadly.