Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

CKhalvashi

Ken, I have said several times that I believe personally that Tesla as a brand is overpriced as an investment prospect. I have very specific requirements with regard to any investment in terms of what I expect as a return and don't believe Tesla will offer that, nor have I for a number of years.

In general, 'tech' investments are overpriced with a limited number of exceptions. I'll put Tesla into this bracket.

I know they have other business interests such as solar roofing, but I was reading an article (in Russian so won't post here) that a Kazakh company is looking to take on the solar roof aspect at much lower prices. A 3kW roof could cost as little as US$6000 ex-factory, so for arguments sake £10k installed, with significant leverage on battery storage etc. It may not look quite as sharp as the Tesla offering, but comes at a significantly lower price and does exactly the same thing, effectively leaving the Tesla system redundant.

I personally equally find their cars expensive for what they are, although appreciate they have their brand in this regard and the price (and hopefully Tesla's unit costs, which IMO are currently out of control but I appreciate there is a lot of R&D happening) likely will come down over time.

I am not a Tesla shareholder.

JKenH

JKenH said:p

Tesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation

It’s been a while since we visited this topic and a lot has happened since then, with on the one hand legacy manufacturers embracing EVs and the explosive growth of the Chinese industry increasing competition and on the other the increasingly remote possibility that we might imminently see Tesla robotaxies on the streets. 

A perhaps timely article from Forbes has appeared today questioning the current valuation on Tesla. The whole article is worth a read but here are a couple of pertinent comments.

Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple (AAPL) by 2030. 

Even if Hertz eventually agrees to buy 100,000 Tesla Model 3s, I do not think it is worth the $100 billion in market cap, or $1 million per vehicle, that I saw investors give Tesla’s market cap after the Hertz deal made headlines. Even Elon Musk questioned the surge in share price, noting that the price movement was “strange” given that Tesla is “very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/

PS: I am still a Tesla shareholder but that doesn’t mean I can’t think critically about my investment.

... and for balance an alternative point of view

As Split Rumors Grow, Investor Says Tesla is Being 'Misanalyzed'

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/as-split-rumors-grow-investor-says-tesla-is-being-misanalyzed

Martyn1981

Coastalwatch said:

Rumblings of discontent at VW threaten Herbert Diess plans and hence progress in transitioning to EV manufacturing. Difficult times ahead for all and I don't envy those involved, be it from losing your job or to those doing their best in keeping the company on track. While many jobs will go, or need to be relocated, opportunities for others will arise. It will be a painful nettle to grasp, but any delay would simply allow competitors to take advantage if the roll out of EV's from VW is stifled!

Works council conflict at VW continues to escalate

According to media reports, the VW works council has issued a vote of no confidence in Herbert Diess. A mediation committee has now been set up in the supervisory board. The dispute is about possible massive job cuts – but also about the role of the individual plants in the transition to electric mobility.

https://www.electrive.com/2021/11/04/works-council-conflict-at-vw-continues-to-escalate/

I was disgusted at VW/VWG for their dieselgate actions, but so long as they don't ditch Diess, and slow down their EV progress, I'm feeling quite positive about them, and for them, now.

This article heaps praise on them, and also mentions Diess briefly skirting around the current issues, but over all I think it's deserved praise if they keep the EV momentum going:

Antihero to zero: VW rises from ‘dieselgate’ to lead charge on electric vehicles

Six years after the humiliation of its global emissions scandal, the world’s largest carmaker by output is leading the charge for Germany’s carmakers, as they look to end their lengthy and lucrative love affair with hydrocarbons by going electric.

Dieselgate in 2015 – where VW was found to have installed so-called defeat devices in its cars to cheat emissions tests – left an indelible mark on the company. It may also have pushed VW more quickly to a lower-emission strategy than many of its domestic and international rivals, and spurred tough new government rules. The European Union intends to end the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035.

“We started this four, five years ago when we had the discussion, what are the next steps for Volkswagen’s strategy, where are we going as a company with our customers,” recalled Andreas Walingen, Volkswagen’s chief strategy officer.

“We can be open on this also; the diesel crisis really gave us, [a sense of] think about yourself, what is your purpose,” Walingen said.

“We sat together and said we really have to make a change, we have to go for zero”.

Meanwhile, VW’s chief executive Herbert Diess has recently felt the heat from the works council at the company’s Wolfsburg headquarters over how it plans to revamp the site, as it looks to boost productivity amid the semiconductor shortage.

The company is also facing competition on its home turf from US electric carmaker Tesla, which is building a factory outside Berlin, where it intends to create 10,000 jobs and produce 500,000 cars a year at its gigafactory, which will include the world’s largest battery plant.

“Especially in Germany you’ve got specialist companies that have been champions of industry, specialising in specialist parts for the internal combustion engine,” Schmidt said. “Of course there are going to be job losses, but what often gets missed is there are going to be new job opportunities created as well.”

JKenH

Tesla’s 4680 cell replicated by StoreDot who claims 10-minute charge time

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-storedot-battery-10-minute-charge/

orrery

JKenH said:

Tesla’s 4680 cell replicated by StoreDot who claims 10-minute charge time

If I had a pound (Euro, Dollar...) for every time I've seen a headline about a new battery that is twice as dense, half the weight, half the size, double the capacity, takes a few seconds to charge etc etc, I'd have already bought a Tesla!

ABrass

orrery said:

JKenH said:

Tesla’s 4680 cell replicated by StoreDot who claims 10-minute charge time

If I had a pound (Euro, Dollar...) for every time I've seen a headline about a new battery that is twice as dense, half the weight, half the size, double the capacity, takes a few seconds to charge etc etc, I'd have already bought a Tesla!

My view is that battery stories should be mostly ignored until they get into mass production. Which for storedot means 2024. Soon we should be starting to discuss the Tesla version.

JKenH

Buyers spending more on used diesels compared to an EV, says Buyacar

 Not sure what to make of this.

“Even more unexpected is the fact that although EVs tend to have a reputation for being more expensive than cars with an internal combustion engine, our customers are spending more, on average, when they buy diesel than electric.”

https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/buyers-spending-used-diesels-compared-ev-says-buyacar-11-11-2021

Verdigris

I think it is the shortage of new cars owing to shortage of chips. Apparently, some cars are appreciating in value when you drive them from the showroom, rather than taking a big hit, as in normal times. I imagine most manufacturers are cutting down production of diesels, so they have a rarity value to those who insist on buying them.

I don't remember the same happening to filament bulbs, though.

Grumpy_chap

Verdigris said:

I think it is the shortage of new cars owing to shortage of chips. Apparently, some cars are appreciating in value when you drive them from the showroom, rather than taking a big hit, as in normal times. I imagine most manufacturers are cutting down production of diesels, so they have a rarity value to those who insist on buying them.

I don't remember the same happening to filament bulbs, though.

Yes, the car situation is absolutely absurd, here is the CARWOW page for one particular (petrol) vehicle:

Yep, second hand from only £1k above list price!

So, there are used diesels available and not used EVs so @JKenH may have linked to something that is correct but misleading all the same.  The firming up of ICE car prices is doing a lot to close the gap to EVs in terms of initial outlay.

Regarding filament bulbs, my Dad was so worried he would not be able to light the house once they were banned he stocked up on a life-time supply.  He passed in 2016 and Mum still has a shed full of the things that she is slowly using.  In fact there are enough to see her out and see me out and very likely see the end of the world out!

Verdigris

Apparently people will pay stupid prices on Ebay for filament bulbs. You could become wealthy enough to buy some LEDs and cut your electricity bills into the bargain.