Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

Verdigris

It'll be like the Olden Days when motorway services all had to offer half a dozen brands of fuel, all at the same price!

EricMears

Verdigris said:

It'll be like the Olden Days when motorway services all had to offer half a dozen brands of fuel, all at the same price!

... and often as not all coming out of the same tankers !

JKenH

Analyst: Tesla Could Grab 25% Of Total Auto Market Share By 2026

Recently, Wood said she expects Tesla's market share to comprise up to 25% of the total automotive market share by 2026. She went on to say that rivals may simply already be too late to the game, and they're still not doing nearly enough to catch up. 

https://insideevs.com/news/548908/tesla-market-share-2026-25percent/

Ectophile

JKenH said:

Analyst: Tesla Could Grab 25% Of Total Auto Market Share By 2026

Recently, Wood said she expects Tesla's market share to comprise up to 25% of the total automotive market share by 2026. She went on to say that rivals may simply already be too late to the game, and they're still not doing nearly enough to catch up. 

https://insideevs.com/news/548908/tesla-market-share-2026-25percent/

In which country/countries?  USA - quite possibly.  China - no chance.

JKenH

Ectophile said:

JKenH said:

Analyst: Tesla Could Grab 25% Of Total Auto Market Share By 2026

Recently, Wood said she expects Tesla's market share to comprise up to 25% of the total automotive market share by 2026. She went on to say that rivals may simply already be too late to the game, and they're still not doing nearly enough to catch up. 

https://insideevs.com/news/548908/tesla-market-share-2026-25percent/

In which country/countries?  USA - quite possibly.  China - no chance.

Worldwide. That presumes they could make them, which is a big ramp up in production. Personally I still expect Toyota to be making more cars than Tesla in 2025. 

Tesla Can Sell 20M Vehicles A Year By 2025 Says ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood

Worldwide, around 80 million vehicles are sold every year. With a 20 to 25 percent share, this would mean Tesla could sell around 20 million vehicles a year by 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles last year.

Cathie Wood defends her prediction by pointing out Tesla already has a 60% share of the electric vehicle market in the US and a 20% share worldwide. In her firm’s earlier analysis, ARK expected Tesla’s EV market share to fall as new electric vehicles are introduced to the market.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/tesla-can-sell-20m-vehicles-year-2025-says-ark-invest-ceo-cathie-wood

Grumpy_chap

Ignoring any other factors, to consider the suggestion that Tesla could take 25% of global car sales by 2026 (only 5 years):
1. What is the Tesla percentage of global car sales presently?
2. What is the maximum percent of global car sales of any one company presently?  I suppose we have to consider multi-brand companies as one company for this assessment - e.g. VAG as a group, not each individual brand.
3. The linked articles seem to be referring to sales volume (number of cars), not sales value.

shinytop

I also wonder what the market share of Tesla-priced cars is.  Not every new car buyer can afford  a car that expensive so it will be a limiting factor.   

ABrass

Tesla are on track for just under 1 million vehicles this year. The global market is around 70 Million.

Next year they're expecting to be closer to 2 million vehicles as they're opening two new factories this Winter, and over 2 million in 2022 once those factories are fully up and running.

I don't think the ARK theory is worth paying much attention to. In theory it might be possible, but not probable.

ABrass

shinytop said:

I also wonder what the market share of Tesla-priced cars is.  Not every new car buyer can afford  a car that expensive so it will be a limiting factor.   

The average purchase price of a new car in the UK is £38,000. Tesla are in the top half of purchase prices, but let's not pretend they're Porches.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

Ignoring any other factors, to consider the suggestion that Tesla could take 25% of global car sales by 2026 (only 5 years):
1. What is the Tesla percentage of global car sales presently?
2. What is the maximum percent of global car sales of any one company presently?  I suppose we have to consider multi-brand companies as one company for this assessment - e.g. VAG as a group, not each individual brand.
3. The linked articles seem to be referring to sales volume (number of cars), not sales value.

Tesla are on track to sell around 850,000 cars this year. Global car sales in 2020 were around 64m units so Tesla’s market share currently is around 1.3%.

VAG and Toyota keep trading the top spot with around 8% of the global market each.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/316786/global-market-share-of-the-leading-automakers/