Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

michaels

Grumpy_chap said:

QrizB said:

I don't have an EV but my next vehicle is likely to be one, and the one after that will almost certainly be one. I can't afford £50k for a Tesla or £25k for a new MG 

As I understand it, a big selling point of new EV's is the very low depreciation.
I see a real challenge to the MG EV's in this regard because of their massive discounting to public sector:

• MG5 for "average Joe" = £25k - £27.5k.    For public sector = £20k - £22.5k
• MG ZX EV for "average Joe" = £26k - £28.5k.    For public sector = £21.5k - £23.5k

This is a massive depreciation immediately built in for "average Joe" and significant brand devaluation.
That aside, IMO the two best EVs available right now are the MG5 and the TM3.

I was reservation no 22 to buy the higher spec mg as EV when it first came out for 21..5k.  I thought you could get them for that or less now from a broker like carwow?

(Didn't buy because you can not specify a third rear seat head restraint and we have 3 kids, good thing really, our 6 yo leaf continues to do all we need it too and got us onto a v2g trial for useful electricity savings that the mg would not have qualified for. Leaf was 12.3k new which makes the mg look expensive)

shinytop

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Just seen a 40kwh Leaf for sale at £13999 which should give you a minimum 100 mile range in virtually all circumstances. I really like mine.

I think we're talking different languages here, in 33 years of motoring I've bought seven cars and their purchase prices total £12k - which includes £4k I once paid for an 18-month-old Fiat Punto (and which, to be fair, I enjoyed driving for nine years).

Admittedly my current car is 17 years old so if that Leaf lasted to the same age without needing serious work it would work out as about £1k/year (and I'd be nearly 70 by then).

This is important.  There will never be an economic case for buying a newish EV over an old banger ICE, even with the most creative 'man-maths'.  You can just about make one comparing new with new in some circumstances but that needs home charging and some hopeful assumptions about future depreciation. 

With current technology and prices, EV 'bangernomics' won't be the same as with ICE.  Because of the battery, EVs won't ever depeciate to near zero levels. That might sound good to people who buy them new but it means that some people might never be able to afford one.  To put things in perspective, when you go bankrupt, you're allowed a car worth up to £1000 before it's taken off you. Will an old but functional (i.e. with a working battery) EV ever be worth as little as that?     

silverwhistle

shinytop said:

This is important.  There will never be an economic case for buying a newish EV over an old banger ICE, even with the most creative 'man-maths'.

Absolutely! My justification is now or never, otherwise known as getting on a bit! My own record is similar to QrizB with 8 cars before this one in 37 years motoring with a similar overall total. Two of the cars were 12 years old and only disposed of as I was moving country and it was difficult and not worth re-registering.

FWIW my new MG ZS EV Exclusive was <22k last year. You make a good point about bangernomics but at least we've some way to go before we reach that point. My first car was a £100 Marina and kept running with the help of a friend and visits to scrappies, and that's another area where budget motorist will struggle in future.

michaels

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Just seen a 40kwh Leaf for sale at £13999 which should give you a minimum 100 mile range in virtually all circumstances. I really like mine.

I think we're talking different languages here, in 33 years of motoring I've bought seven cars and their purchase prices total £12k - which includes £4k I once paid for an 18-month-old Fiat Punto (and which, to be fair, I enjoyed driving for nine years).

Admittedly my current car is 17 years old so if that Leaf lasted to the same age without needing serious work it would work out as about £1k/year (and I'd be nearly 70 by then).

This is important.  There will never be an economic case for buying a newish EV over an old banger ICE, even with the most creative 'man-maths'.  You can just about make one comparing new with new in some circumstances but that needs home charging and some hopeful assumptions about future depreciation. 

With current technology and prices, EV 'bangernomics' won't be the same as with ICE.  Because of the battery, EVs won't ever depeciate to near zero levels. That might sound good to people who buy them new but it means that some people might never be able to afford one.  To put things in perspective, when you go bankrupt, you're allowed a car worth up to £1000 before it's taken off you. Will an old but functional (i.e. with a working battery) EV ever be worth as little as that?     

Not sure - at the moment the value of the battery may be a floor but in future when old EVs are ubiquitous they may well end up being worth only a few hundred quid?

QrizB

shinytop said:

With current technology and prices, EV 'bangernomics' won't be the same as with ICE.  Because of the battery, EVs won't ever depeciate to near zero levels. That might sound good to people who buy them new but it means that some people might never be able to afford one.  To put things in perspective, when you go bankrupt, you're allowed a car worth up to £1000 before it's taken off you. Will an old but functional (i.e. with a working battery) EV ever be worth as little as that?     

I'm wondering if this will change once EVs are more common. Currently EV residuals are high because people want to buy them and supply is limited. If my Googled stats are reliable, there are something like 32M cars registered in the UK (on average, 8.2 years old) at the moment with 2M added and 1.4M scrapped each year, but only 515k of those 32M are plug-in EVs. As annual EV registrations increase, supply of used ones will follow and used prices should eventually fall.

You suggest the battery will have value and this will keep EV residuals high. Batteries are getting cheaper; since 2010 they have fallen from US$1100 to US$137 (about £100) per kWh and Tesla expect this to halve again over the next three years. When a 40kWh battery costs £2000 new, the value of a 10-year-old one *might* fall enough that the car gets into bangernomics territory.

I guess we'll all find out over the next decade

Edit to add: I spent so long checking my numbers that michaels made the same point, much more succinctly, before I managed to post!

JKenH

QrizB said:

shinytop said:

With current technology and prices, EV 'bangernomics' won't be the same as with ICE.  Because of the battery, EVs won't ever depeciate to near zero levels. That might sound good to people who buy them new but it means that some people might never be able to afford one.  To put things in perspective, when you go bankrupt, you're allowed a car worth up to £1000 before it's taken off you. Will an old but functional (i.e. with a working battery) EV ever be worth as little as that?     

I'm wondering if this will change once EVs are more common. Currently EV residuals are high because people want to buy them and supply is limited. If my Googled stats are reliable, there are something like 32M cars registered in the UK (on average, 8.2 years old) at the moment with 2M added and 1.4M scrapped each year, but only 515k of those 32M are plug-in EVs. As annual EV registrations increase, supply of used ones will follow and used prices should eventually fall.

You suggest the battery will have value and this will keep EV residuals high. Batteries are getting cheaper; since 2010 they have fallen from US$1100 to US$137 (about £100) per kWh and Tesla expect this to halve again over the next three years. When a 40kWh battery costs £2000 new, the value of a 10-year-old one *might* fall enough that the car gets into bangernomics territory.

I guess we'll all find out over the next decade

Edit to add: I spent so long checking my numbers that michaels made the same point, much more succinctly, before I managed to post!

The argument is often made that the savings on fuel, VED and maintenance offset the higher cost of buying a BEV but unless you are doing a lot of miles I suspect it may be a while before one works financially for you (and several million others). My wife has a 10 year old Kia Picanto, zero road tax, about £100 budget service and MOT, £180 insurance and £250 fuel - less than £500 per year. That’s about 2 months leasing cost for a BEV.

Edit: ....and it does 300 miles on a fill up, with no plan B and C required. 

JKenH

EV Charge Networks - Why oh Why!

https://youtu.be/5GRqKJENX0g

Video from one of the UK’s most followed EV YouTubers Electric Vehicle Man. Worth a watch if you are considering an EV. 

Edit: I just read the comments below the video - unusually, total agreement. Maybe he is onto something.

JKenH

The truth about battery degradation

Extremely informative video, the best I’ve seen, about battery degradation. 

https://youtu.be/IHz-Kx5h_Tw

Edit: I wouldn’t have come across this if I hadn’t been watching one of the Juice Media videos recommended on here, so thanks for sharing that earlier link.

JKenH

Rocket Scientists Are Developing Roads That Can Charge Electric Cars

The fear of running out of range could soon be solved.

https://hypebeast.com/2021/5/electric-car-charging-roads-rocket-scientist-ev-development-future

QrizB

JKenH said:

Rocket Scientists Are Developing Roads That Can Charge Electric Cars

30 years ago I played a sci-fi game called Shadowrun (think Blade Runner with magic). Some electric cars in the game were powered inductively from grids in the road. It's interesting to see it becoming a real life technology!