Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

ABrass

JKenH said:

CATL Promises Solid-State Battery With More Than 350 Wh/kg

Just ignoring the solid state batteries for a moment, CATL are talking about huge improvements in efficiency of LFP batteries. With new battery developments being announced somewhere virtually every week one would question Tesla’s strategy of developing their own 4680 battery and battery manufacturing plant. There are so many companies now working on EV technology that it is possible that the vertical integration model which has worked for Tesla to date (in the absence of outside suppliers) might work to their detriment in the future.

Regarding LFP cells, new developments would soon take it to 200 Wh/kg and even 230 Wh/kg. Currently, the best ones reach only 160 Wh/kg. If they really get to 200 Wh/kg, that’s a 25 percent improvement.

https://insideevs.com/news/483085/catl-solid-state-battery-350-wh-kg/

If they were running a risk of not wanting to use those batteries instead of even better ones from CATL/Panasonic etc then yes, there's a risk. But Tesla need so many cells that even if the 4680s turn out to be second rate by the time they're in mass production then it doesn't matter. They'll just use them for Standard range models or stationary storage. Tesla are probably cell limited.

The only way it doesn't work out is if the cells cost too much to make a profit on. The odds seem decent that won't be an issue.

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

CATL Promises Solid-State Battery With More Than 350 Wh/kg

Just ignoring the solid state batteries for a moment, CATL are talking about huge improvements in efficiency of LFP batteries. With new battery developments being announced somewhere virtually every week one would question Tesla’s strategy of developing their own 4680 battery and battery manufacturing plant. There are so many companies now working on EV technology that it is possible that the vertical integration model which has worked for Tesla to date (in the absence of outside suppliers) might work to their detriment in the future.

Regarding LFP cells, new developments would soon take it to 200 Wh/kg and even 230 Wh/kg. Currently, the best ones reach only 160 Wh/kg. If they really get to 200 Wh/kg, that’s a 25 percent improvement.

https://insideevs.com/news/483085/catl-solid-state-battery-350-wh-kg/

If they were running a risk of not wanting to use those batteries instead of even better ones from CATL/Panasonic etc then yes, there's a risk. But Tesla need so many cells that even if the 4680s turn out to be second rate by the time they're in mass production then it doesn't matter. They'll just use them for Standard range models or stationary storage. Tesla are probably cell limited.

The only way it doesn't work out is if the cells cost too much to make a profit on. The odds seem decent that won't be an issue.

Yep. I think they just said that the delays on the Tesla semi are down to battery supply constraints. And I think Elon said that their 4680 pilot factory would still rate in the top ten for size and production.
There seem to be some odd arguments going around about how Tesla's technology today may be outdated by future technology, which seems a strange 'argument' to make, when Tesla (and we) know that their current technology will be outdated by their future technology, and then that by the future future technology and so on.
Given their enormous expansion in energy products, they also need large amounts more production for that, as you mention, and can't keep up with demand, hence the recent US price increase in the Powerwall.
I'd also agree that profitability is most likely not a problem given their vertical integration model, and the reports on their cells, and packs being some of the cheapest. As Elon always says, it's not the machines that they build, but the machines that build the machines that they need to perfect (the Giga factories), and that seems to be going quite well.

michaels

Surely a battery factory can make cells with different chemistry's as they are invented - the current giga factory isn't still churning out identical batteries to when it first started manufacturing.

JKenH

michaels said:

Surely a battery factory can make cells with different chemistry's as they are invented - the current giga factory isn't still churning out identical batteries to when it first started manufacturing.

I may be wrong (and I am sure someone will correct me if I am) but as yet I wasn’t aware that Tesla actually had ever themselves manufactured any batteries that have gone into production cars (other than for testing  purposes). They have been buying in their batteries and will continue to do so until the 4680 battery plant is up and running. 

Apologies in advance if I am wrong. 

michaels

JKenH said:

michaels said:

Surely a battery factory can make cells with different chemistry's as they are invented - the current giga factory isn't still churning out identical batteries to when it first started manufacturing.

I may be wrong (and I am sure someone will correct me if I am) but as yet I wasn’t aware that Tesla actually had ever themselves manufactured any batteries that have gone into production cars (other than for testing  purposes). They have been buying in their batteries and will continue to do so until the 4680 battery plant is up and running. 

Apologies in advance if I am wrong. 

Not only but also, the 4680 is just a form factor, it doesn't necessarily need to feature any of the new battery technology shown in battery day (except possibly tabless) and thus can (and will) be manufactured by many other companies not just Tesla - for example I wouldn't be surprised if the first GigaBerlin cars don't have LG 4680 cells with 'traditional' chemistries and production techniques.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

CATL Promises Solid-State Battery With More Than 350 Wh/kg

Just ignoring the solid state batteries for a moment, CATL are talking about huge improvements in efficiency of LFP batteries. With new battery developments being announced somewhere virtually every week one would question Tesla’s strategy of developing their own 4680 battery and battery manufacturing plant. There are so many companies now working on EV technology that it is possible that the vertical integration model which has worked for Tesla to date (in the absence of outside suppliers) might work to their detriment in the future.

Regarding LFP cells, new developments would soon take it to 200 Wh/kg and even 230 Wh/kg. Currently, the best ones reach only 160 Wh/kg. If they really get to 200 Wh/kg, that’s a 25 percent improvement.

https://insideevs.com/news/483085/catl-solid-state-battery-350-wh-kg/

If they were running a risk of not wanting to use those batteries instead of even better ones from CATL/Panasonic etc then yes, there's a risk. But Tesla need so many cells that even if the 4680s turn out to be second rate by the time they're in mass production then it doesn't matter. They'll just use them for Standard range models or stationary storage. Tesla are probably cell limited.

The only way it doesn't work out is if the cells cost too much to make a profit on. The odds seem decent that won't be an issue.

Yep. I think they just said that the delays on the Tesla semi are down to battery supply constraints. 

After checking, Elon said that Tesla Semi and Cybertruck production would be limited this year due to battery constraints, but production would ramp up in 2022.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

Martyn1981 said:

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

CATL Promises Solid-State Battery With More Than 350 Wh/kg

Just ignoring the solid state batteries for a moment, CATL are talking about huge improvements in efficiency of LFP batteries. With new battery developments being announced somewhere virtually every week one would question Tesla’s strategy of developing their own 4680 battery and battery manufacturing plant. There are so many companies now working on EV technology that it is possible that the vertical integration model which has worked for Tesla to date (in the absence of outside suppliers) might work to their detriment in the future.

Regarding LFP cells, new developments would soon take it to 200 Wh/kg and even 230 Wh/kg. Currently, the best ones reach only 160 Wh/kg. If they really get to 200 Wh/kg, that’s a 25 percent improvement.

https://insideevs.com/news/483085/catl-solid-state-battery-350-wh-kg/

If they were running a risk of not wanting to use those batteries instead of even better ones from CATL/Panasonic etc then yes, there's a risk. But Tesla need so many cells that even if the 4680s turn out to be second rate by the time they're in mass production then it doesn't matter. They'll just use them for Standard range models or stationary storage. Tesla are probably cell limited.

The only way it doesn't work out is if the cells cost too much to make a profit on. The odds seem decent that won't be an issue.

Yep. I think they just said that the delays on the Tesla semi are down to battery supply constraints. 

After checking, Elon said that Tesla Semi and Cybertruck production would be limited this year due to battery constraints, but production would ramp up in 2022.

Yes, the semi was due to launch in 2019. It’s now 3 years late. Will it ever appear. Being battery constrained is an interesting explanation but could Elon Musk not have seen this coming in 2017 and placed orders with Panasonic, LG etc at the time? 

Tesla’s new battery factory was due to open around September 2020 (see press extract below from June 2020) but it still isn’t up and running. 

Tesla, which said it currently has a "small-scale" battery manufacturing operation in Fremont, applied for city government approval to build an expanded battery operation. It estimated construction of the project, including the installation of all manufacturing equipment, can be completed in around 3 months.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-to-expand-battery-manufacturing-make-own-automotive-batteries-2020-6

Maybe it is Tesla’s decision to build its own battery plant rather than buying in batteries that has led to the delays with the semi and CT. 

Solarchaser

To be fair to musk, there's been a pandemic going on, and the US gov decided his was not an essential service, so I'd expect delays on a plant opening. 

No excuse for the delay on semis if the actual date was 2017 though

JKenH

Elon Musk should be seen as a hero by all of us who want to keep the joy in driving

Functionally, I have no opinion on the superiority or otherwise of Musk’s products compared with the alternatives on the market, or their value for money.

However, what he has helped to achieve is to turn the electric vehicle into an object of desire. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/31/elon-musk-should-seen-hero-us-want-keep-joy-driving/

Martyn1981

Extracts from this weeks Carbon Commentary newsletter:

1, Electric construction equipment. Proterra makes electric buses in the US but increasingly now focuses on supplying battery modules and other equipment to vehicle manufacturers. It announced a partnership with construction equipment company Komatsu to build a mid-sized electric excavator in 2021 with the intention of starting commercial production in 2023-24. The heavy batteries at the back of the vehicle, usually a disadvantage, provide useful weight to balance the movements of the excavator’s hydraulic arm.

5, Moving away from internal combustion engines. GM’s commitment to 100% electric vehicles by 2035 made headlines around the world. (It also announced a deal with truck maker Navistar to supply its hydrogen fuel cells for commercial vehicles). What was also striking was that the company said it would speed up its own move to ‘net zero’ by 2035 by buying only renewable electricity by 2030 in the US. This brings forward the date by 5 years. GM is already one of the top 10 buyers of clean energy in the world. It also said that it would use offsets, but only ‘sparingly’ in its move to zero emissions.  Perhaps even more importantly, ZF Frederickshavn, one of the top five automotive component manufacturers in the world, said that it had ceased R&D on internal combustion engines. The CEO said ‘we will no longer develop new products that are purely suitable for internal combustion engines. We have redirected all development resources to the new technologies. We are preparing for the fact that hardly any combustion engines will be sold in Europe in 2035, perhaps none at all in the passenger car sector’. (Thanks to Thad Curtz).