Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

michaels

Ectophile said:

I'm not sure some people realise how car makers work.  Tesla struggled for years to achieve the production numbers they wanted.  The legacy car makers have been doing it for decades.  And they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains and building up partnerships with suppliers.

Engines are often made at a different factory from the rest of the car.  They can just shut down or repurpose the engine factory.  If they want battery packs, they will buy them in.  If they want motor controllers, they will buy them from an electronics company.  The motor units can be bought in.

They will then update the production line, and start bolting together electric cars, just like they have bolted together petrol and diesel ones for years.  They have to update the production like every time a new model comes out, so that's nothing new.

And as we can all see from vw the software integration bit just requires a click of the fingers......

JKenH

Brexit Deal Protects U.K. Electric Car Trade - For Now

In the end, the EU agreed to allow an exemption for electric cars, but only for six years.

This means that European carmakers have until 2026 to switch their battery supply chain from East Asia to Europe. Otherwise, the 10% tariffs will begin to apply on electric car sales from U.K. to EU or vice versa, if the electric cars are made up of more than 55% components of non-European origin.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2021/12/27/brexit-deal-protects-uk-electric-car-tradefor-now/

Martyn1981

Ectophile said:

I'm not sure some people realise how car makers work.  Tesla struggled for years to achieve the production numbers they wanted.  The legacy car makers have been doing it for decades.  And they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains and building up partnerships with suppliers.

Engines are often made at a different factory from the rest of the car.  They can just shut down or repurpose the engine factory.  If they want battery packs, they will buy them in.  If they want motor controllers, they will buy them from an electronics company.  The motor units can be bought in.

They will then update the production line, and start bolting together electric cars, just like they have bolted together petrol and diesel ones for years.  They have to update the production like every time a new model comes out, so that's nothing new.

But if you think about what you've said, and break it down?
Tesla struggled for years, yes, so why will the legacy automakers with less skill, manage it any quicker. The legacy car makers haven't been doing this for decades, their BEV production (and sales) is small, and ICEV production has as much meaning going forward as horse breeding skills did v's the Model T.
Yes, they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains, but what use will those chains be going forward (exhausts, fuel management, radiators, ICE's)?
If they continue as they have been doing by 'just buying in' then they won't stand a chance of making a profit against a vertically integrated producer. If they just buy in batteries, then that solves nothing, since the 'magic sauce' is in the battery packs and battery management. If they buy in battery packs, then 'who from', since they will then be paying someone else to make a profit. If they continue with dealerships, they won't stand a chance of making a profit against a producer that sells at retail.
And of course, where will they get the top engineers from? In the US Space X and Tesla battle for 1st and 2nd choice for graduates, and elsewhere it's probably safe to assume that the first to go heavy into BEV's will mop up the best.
As Michaels has pointed out, how did software development for VW go? And why is the VW Group holding Mission T meetings to try to work out how they can compete, if it's easy, given that they have been quicker than many to go BEV heavy? Why is the industry itself starting to panic?

The current ICEV model is a small number of large companies that assemble parts from their suppliers and sell to their dealers, and that model ain't gonna cut it going forward.

Ectophile

Martyn1981 said:

Ectophile said:

I'm not sure some people realise how car makers work.  Tesla struggled for years to achieve the production numbers they wanted.  The legacy car makers have been doing it for decades.  And they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains and building up partnerships with suppliers.

Engines are often made at a different factory from the rest of the car.  They can just shut down or repurpose the engine factory.  If they want battery packs, they will buy them in.  If they want motor controllers, they will buy them from an electronics company.  The motor units can be bought in.

They will then update the production line, and start bolting together electric cars, just like they have bolted together petrol and diesel ones for years.  They have to update the production like every time a new model comes out, so that's nothing new.

But if you think about what you've said, and break it down?
Tesla struggled for years, yes, so why will the legacy automakers with less skill, manage it any quicker. The legacy car makers haven't been doing this for decades, their BEV production (and sales) is small, and ICEV production has as much meaning going forward as horse breeding skills did v's the Model T.
Yes, they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains, but what use will those chains be going forward (exhausts, fuel management, radiators, ICE's)?
If they continue as they have been doing by 'just buying in' then they won't stand a chance of making a profit against a vertically integrated producer. If they just buy in batteries, then that solves nothing, since the 'magic sauce' is in the battery packs and battery management. If they buy in battery packs, then 'who from', since they will then be paying someone else to make a profit. If they continue with dealerships, they won't stand a chance of making a profit against a producer that sells at retail.
And of course, where will they get the top engineers from? In the US Space X and Tesla battle for 1st and 2nd choice for graduates, and elsewhere it's probably safe to assume that the first to go heavy into BEV's will mop up the best.
As Michaels has pointed out, how did software development for VW go? And why is the VW Group holding Mission T meetings to try to work out how they can compete, if it's easy, given that they have been quicker than many to go BEV heavy? Why is the industry itself starting to panic?

The current ICEV model is a small number of large companies that assemble parts from their suppliers and sell to their dealers, and that model ain't gonna cut it going forward.

Traditional car manufacturers have spent ages optimising everything to produce vehicles at the lowest price they can.  If that means buiying in bits from a specialist, that's what they will do.  My current Land Rover has a Ford engine in it, and the previous one had a BMW engine.  It was cheaper than developing their own engines.  Buying in bits hasn't stopped Nissan, Kia, Hyundai, Renault, Skoda, Seat, VW, MG (SAIC) and many others making electric vehicles, and every one of them offers cars cheaper than the cheapest Tesla.

Tesla aren't the only company making batteries.  And they aren't the only ones constantly improving their battery technology.  They just make more of a song and dance about it in front of the World's media.

I haven't bought my first electric vehicle yet.  But I'm pretty certain when I do, it won't be a Tesla.  They are stuck at the luxury end of the market making cars that are too expensive for the average motorist.  A nice little sub-£20k Seat Mii would make a nice little runaround.  Though a nearly-new Renault Zoe is also a tempting prospect.

Martyn1981

I'm sorry but you are suggesting a 'business as normal' approach from these companies, which would work if they are competing against each other, all with the same losses to right off, the same dealership networks to pay off, the same suppliers of batts and even batt packs. They could take their time (as they have), and slowly transition to BEV's of the cash flow and profits from their ICEV sales. They can get parts from suppliers, because the others are doing that.

But, you are ignoring the elephant in the room ...... Tesla ..... they are already the largest BEV producer (ICEV sales mean absolutely nothing going forward, other than greater costs to write down), selling cars cheaper than the competition (comparing like for like, not just prices as you've done of different class vehicles), are cash flow positive, and profitable, and expanding production at roughly 100% every 2 years. The exact same can probably be said for many of the Chinese companies heading this way, with decent BEV's.

You are also ignoring VW's Mission T, which means you disagree with one of the largest ICEV car companies on this issue too!!!!

Previously you said "I'm not sure some people realise how car makers work.", but I'd suggest we do, and that's why they are in for a World of hurt as the slow, delaying tactics approach to this transition has been blown out of the water completely, and it's now heading for full disruption, and they are not ready.

As I and ABrass have pointed out you also have to consider the large impact on profits that a small drop in ICEV sales will have on the industry as they lose the top sales that are needed to make a profit, as the rest just cover CAPEX, and boost production high enough to reduce the OPEX.

Don't get obsessed with Tesla, you need to obsess on the production and sales model that Tesla (and the Chinese) are using, and the monopolisation of battery production, and more importantly in house battery production ...... back to that vertical integration issue again.

ABrass

Ectophile said:

Martyn1981 said:

Ectophile said:

I'm not sure some people realise how car makers work.  Tesla struggled for years to achieve the production numbers they wanted.  The legacy car makers have been doing it for decades.  And they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains and building up partnerships with suppliers.

Engines are often made at a different factory from the rest of the car.  They can just shut down or repurpose the engine factory.  If they want battery packs, they will buy them in.  If they want motor controllers, they will buy them from an electronics company.  The motor units can be bought in.

They will then update the production line, and start bolting together electric cars, just like they have bolted together petrol and diesel ones for years.  They have to update the production like every time a new model comes out, so that's nothing new.

But if you think about what you've said, and break it down?
Tesla struggled for years, yes, so why will the legacy automakers with less skill, manage it any quicker. The legacy car makers haven't been doing this for decades, their BEV production (and sales) is small, and ICEV production has as much meaning going forward as horse breeding skills did v's the Model T.
Yes, they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains, but what use will those chains be going forward (exhausts, fuel management, radiators, ICE's)?
If they continue as they have been doing by 'just buying in' then they won't stand a chance of making a profit against a vertically integrated producer. If they just buy in batteries, then that solves nothing, since the 'magic sauce' is in the battery packs and battery management. If they buy in battery packs, then 'who from', since they will then be paying someone else to make a profit. If they continue with dealerships, they won't stand a chance of making a profit against a producer that sells at retail.
And of course, where will they get the top engineers from? In the US Space X and Tesla battle for 1st and 2nd choice for graduates, and elsewhere it's probably safe to assume that the first to go heavy into BEV's will mop up the best.
As Michaels has pointed out, how did software development for VW go? And why is the VW Group holding Mission T meetings to try to work out how they can compete, if it's easy, given that they have been quicker than many to go BEV heavy? Why is the industry itself starting to panic?

The current ICEV model is a small number of large companies that assemble parts from their suppliers and sell to their dealers, and that model ain't gonna cut it going forward.

Traditional car manufacturers have spent ages optimising everything to produce vehicles at the lowest price they can.  If that means buiying in bits from a specialist, that's what they will do.  My current Land Rover has a Ford engine in it, and the previous one had a BMW engine.  It was cheaper than developing their own engines.  Buying in bits hasn't stopped Nissan, Kia, Hyundai, Renault, Skoda, Seat, VW, MG (SAIC) and many others making electric vehicles, and every one of them offers cars cheaper than the cheapest Tesla.

Tesla aren't the only company making batteries.  And they aren't the only ones constantly improving their battery technology.  They just make more of a song and dance about it in front of the World's media.

I haven't bought my first electric vehicle yet.  But I'm pretty certain when I do, it won't be a Tesla.  They are stuck at the luxury end of the market making cars that are too expensive for the average motorist.  A nice little sub-£20k Seat Mii would make a nice little runaround.  Though a nearly-new Renault Zoe is also a tempting prospect.

You're still assuming that the ICE vehicles are equally profitable, or in fact remain profitable at all. There are no laws of physics that say it has to remain that way and numerous large manufacturers have been open about saying thre is a  point fast approaching where a new ICE vehicle won't be profitable.

More to the point, how many existing or under development lines won't pay for themselves as the market for ICE dries up? That is what is meant by stranded assets, not the ongoing inability for legacy manufacturers to outdo Tesla.

Coastalwatch

Ectophile said:

I haven't bought my first electric vehicle yet.  But I'm pretty certain when I do, it won't be a Tesla.  They are stuck at the luxury end of the market making cars that are too expensive for the average motorist.  A nice little sub-£20k Seat Mii would make a nice little runaround.  Though a nearly-new Renault Zoe is also a tempting prospect.

Have to agree with you somewhat on that point Ecto, as Tesla certainly are at the luxury end and will not touble the lower tiers until they do. While Elon has mentioned a cheaper version in future, circa $25k, I doubt that would still suit the majority of potential owners pockets. Unless of course they built a factory in China specifically for the purpose.

While mentioning China there are many makes over there already ramping up production to compete at this level which European manufacturers will find difficulty in displacing.

For sure difficult times ahead for existing ICE manufacturers, perhaps not unlike the British Motorcycle Industry in the Sixties before it's well documented demise. And that on a level playing field with no change in fuel type!

Coastalwatch

Another Nikola project bites the dust. Not sure how many, if any, now look to survive!

Nikola, Republic scrap electric trash truck

Electric truck developer Nikola Corp. and trash-hauling specialist Republic Services have scrapped their collaboration on garbage truck development.

The pair was working on a garbage truck based on a zero-emissions battery-electric drive platform and body. A statement said that after “considerable collaboration and review,” they have agreed that combining technologies and design concepts “would result in longer-than-expected development time, and unexpected costs.”

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/12/28/nikola-republic-scrap-electric-trash-truck/

Martyn1981

One of my all time automotive loves, the AC Cobra, and only £168k. [Edit - But sadly a TM3 LR AWD can beat it to 60mph and for only £48.5k]

A New AC Cobra Follows Carroll Shelby’s Original Recipe

The new AC Cobra Series 4-electric isn’t a quick and dirty electric conversion aiming to sell green cred while disrespecting its roots. AC actually put in the effort to make sure it’s a decent electric sports car and a real Cobra. The car weighs only 1190 kg (2600 lbs), which helps it get decent handling performance wise, but also helps it get better range. Compare this with a Nissan LEAF (around 3500 pounds), or a Tesla Model S (around 4900 pounds), and it’s pretty clear just how light it is.

“Eliminating excess weight brings with it positive benefits for the car’s owner. Lower overall weight reduces energy consumption, allowing the batteries to deliver a longer range and the ability to drive the car to AC’s traditional high standards for speed and acceleration which the marque has achieved over many years” said Alan Lubinsky, the owner of AC.

The car has a 54 kWh pack, but with the light weight, it can go around 200 miles on a charge.

JKenH

ICE-spy: 'Smart' electric parking bays could detect when petrol or diesel cars stop in them and issue £70 fines

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9095327/Cars-Smart-electric-parking-bays-issue-70-fines-petrol-diesel-cars-stop-them.html