Battery Electric Vehicle News / Enjoying the Transportation Revolution

michaels

JKenH said:

Chairman and co-founder of Britishvolt quits after tax fraud conviction emerges just days after £2.6bn battery gigafactory plans revealed

Britishvolt’s Nikola moment?

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/chairman-and-co-founder-of-britishvolt-quits-after-tax-fraud-conviction-emerges/210972

Hard to know if the whole thing is just about bilking grants from a govt desperate for Green investment or if this is something minor from long ago.  No govts have great form at not being taken for a ride but shucksters.

JKenH

Mercedes-Benz Gets Serious: 10 New Electric Models

Being an existing ICE car company, it makes sense that Mercedes would share production lines, and this minimizes the risk to demand fluctuations in the future. If they don’t get many orders for EVs at first, they can run the plant making ICE vehicles and hybrids most of the time, while keeping the capability to crank out more EVs. If they get more demand for EVs, they can turn down ICE production and crank out more EVs.

In other words, they’re not expecting to go all EV overnight, but they’re seriously gearing up for a transition. This shows that they’re not only serious, but are realistic about it and have a plan to get there.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/20/mercedes-benz-gets-serious-10-new-electric-models/

EVandPV

The cost of Lithium-ion battery pack prices has fallen close to 90%, and rates lower than US$100/kWh have been reported for the first time.

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/battery-pack-prices-reported-below-us100kwh-for-first-time

JKenH

Apple targets car production by 2024 and eyes 'next level' battery technology - sources

It will be interesting to see how Apple’s outsourcing approach to manufacture compares to the vertically integrated model adopted by Tesla. In a rapidly evolving tech world is it better to concentrate on design and marketing than manufacturing? 

Apple Inc is moving forward with self-driving car technology and is targeting 2024 to produce a passenger vehicle that could include its own breakthrough battery technology, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-apple-autos-exclusive-idUSKBN28V2PU

Martyn1981

Carbon Commentary newsletter extracts:

1, Electric planes. An impressive few days for ZeroAvia, the US/UK business that is pioneering hydrogen/electric planes. The company raised $21m from a variety of investors including Gates’s Breakthrough Ventures and the Amazon Climate Pledge Fund. It also gained funding of about $16m from the UK government to deliver a 19 seat plane by 2023 that can fly 800km, as well as announcing a partnership with IAG’s British Airways. The British Airways press release allowed ZeroAvia to claim that hydrogen/electric aircraft may have lower operating costs than standard planes. That statement was supported by a separate comment from the IcelandAir CEO who said that electricity might be cheaper than aviation kerosene for Iceland’s internal flights. A local parliamentary committee there is pushing for full electrification of domestic air travel by 2030.

JKenH

Electric cars are nearly £90 CHEAPER on average to insure than petrol and diesel cars, claims new report

What is it with the Daily Mail and electric cars?😀

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-9025797/Electric-cars-nearly-90-CHEAPER-insure-petrol-diesel-cars.html

JKenH

Combustion engine car factories are 'stranded assets' in age of electric

Just wondering about how this will work out. ICE vehicles are currently profitable for legacy automakers funding development of electric cars. Yes the engine plants will need to  be shut down but not necessarily before 2030. In the meantime existing engines will continue to be produced and refined without the need for new investment in developing the next range of engines, so the run out phase of ICEs may prove quite profitable. 

Manufacturers regularly develop new platforms so will they not just roll out new electric platforms as VW have done? Manufacture of bodies, suspensions and interiors requires little new investment that would not be incurred in bringing out a new ICE model and the legacy manufacturers already have considerable expertise at manufacturing these elements profitably, expertise that new automakers are still acquiring. That just leaves the power train and batteries but most of the big manufacturers are already working on them. Why not come in later and take advantage of all the hard work others have done?

Would, say, Toyota now be in a better position financially if they had been making electric cars at a loss for the last 10 years or ICEs at a profit?

Had Tesla been building ICE cars for the last decade instead of developing BEVs how much profit might they have made?

Nissan/Renault have been manufacturing BEVs for 10 years. Has that given them an advantage over other manufacturers such as Hyundai/Kia who started much later?

I don’t have a clue as to how much money the latter make or lose on cars like the Ionic, Kona and e-Niro but they are very competent cars so I doubt that the legacy automakers will have any technical difficulty actually manufacturing BEVs. As a large part of their manufacturing facilities are already set up for making bodies, interiors suspension etc, the amount of new investment they are likely to require to build electric cars is less than the new entrants. They can divert more of their investment to developing the powertrain side.

I know GM are spending huge amounts on battery tech but is it necessary for all legacy automakers to do so? With rapidly evolving technology why assume you can develop it better than anyone else. LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL, BYD, etc. all have vast experience developing batteries. We know already from the various battery technologies that have been tried that some are more suited to certain applications than others. Tesla are using different chemistries. Why commit to your own battery plant specialising in one chemistry when you might need a mix of batteries for your range of vehicles, from city cars to 40 tonne trucks? Who knows what the next big step in batteries will be and what if you have just committed to building a plant for what you thought was the latest thing, only to find out it is now redundant? What if Toyota pull off solid state batteries - where will that leave others?

I know it is fashionable to write off the legacy automakers (and some most likely will fall by the wayside - I worry about JLR) but I think it is too early to say they are all dead in the water, just yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/27/combustion-engine-car-factories-are-stranded-assets-in-age-of-electric?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

ABrass

JKenH said:

Combustion engine car factories are 'stranded assets' in age of electric

Just wondering about how this will work out. ICE vehicles are currently profitable for legacy automakers funding development of electric cars. Yes the engine plants will need to  be shut down but not necessarily before 2030. In the meantime existing engines will continue to be produced and refined without the need for new investment in developing the next range of engines, so the run out phase of ICEs may prove quite profitable. 

Manufacturers regularly develop new platforms so will they not just roll out new electric platforms as VW have done? Manufacture of bodies, suspensions and interiors requires little new investment that would not be incurred in bringing out a new ICE model and the legacy manufacturers already have considerable expertise at manufacturing these elements profitably, expertise that new automakers are still acquiring. That just leaves the power train and batteries but most of the big manufacturers are already working on them. Why not come in later and take advantage of all the hard work others have done?

Would, say, Toyota now be in a better position financially if they had been making electric cars at a loss for the last 10 years or ICEs at a profit?

Had Tesla been building ICE cars for the last decade instead of developing BEVs how much profit might they have made?

Nissan/Renault have been manufacturing BEVs for 10 years. Has that given them an advantage over other manufacturers such as Hyundai/Kia who started much later?

I don’t have a clue as to how much money the latter make or lose on cars like the Ionic, Kona and e-Niro but they are very competent cars so I doubt that the legacy automakers will have any technical difficulty actually manufacturing BEVs. As a large part of their manufacturing facilities are already set up for making bodies, interiors suspension etc, the amount of new investment they are likely to require to build electric cars is less than the new entrants. They can divert more of their investment to developing the powertrain side.

I know GM are spending huge amounts on battery tech but is it necessary for all legacy automakers to do so? With rapidly evolving technology why assume you can develop it better than anyone else. LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL, BYD, etc. all have vast experience developing batteries. We know already from the various battery technologies that have been tried that some are more suited to certain applications than others. Tesla are using different chemistries. Why commit to your own battery plant specialising in one chemistry when you might need a mix of batteries for your range of vehicles, from city cars to 40 tonne trucks? Who knows what the next big step in batteries will be and what if you have just committed to building a plant for what you thought was the latest thing, only to find out it is now redundant? What if Toyota pull off solid state batteries - where will that leave others?

I know it is fashionable to write off the legacy automakers (and some most likely will fall by the wayside - I worry about JLR) but I think it is too early to say they are all dead in the water, just yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/27/combustion-engine-car-factories-are-stranded-assets-in-age-of-electric?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Eventually ICE factories are going to go bust. It will cost more money to design and build a new engine than they'll be able to recoup on sales.

So yes, there is an absolute danger of them becoming stranded assets, where they stop being able to sell the engines before the Costa are recouped. The difficult question is when the legacy manufacturers need to draw a line under new R&D and move into a managed decline phase. Doing that whilst seamlessly building up the EV pipeline will be difficult.

You can have dual use assembly lines, but they aren't optimised for EV models and you can't snap your fingers and double your battery output overnight.

Then there's the lumpy reality of manufacturing. A factory may be profitable at 90% utilisation and make a loss at 50%. Not all engine factories build all types of engines and retooling isn't cheap. Imagine if everyone stopped buying diesels for some, unknown, reason. All the diesel plants would be stranded assets and a liability to their owners.

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Combustion engine car factories are 'stranded assets' in age of electric

Just wondering about how this will work out. ICE vehicles are currently profitable for legacy automakers funding development of electric cars. Yes the engine plants will need to  be shut down but not necessarily before 2030. In the meantime existing engines will continue to be produced and refined without the need for new investment in developing the next range of engines, so the run out phase of ICEs may prove quite profitable. 

Manufacturers regularly develop new platforms so will they not just roll out new electric platforms as VW have done? Manufacture of bodies, suspensions and interiors requires little new investment that would not be incurred in bringing out a new ICE model and the legacy manufacturers already have considerable expertise at manufacturing these elements profitably, expertise that new automakers are still acquiring. That just leaves the power train and batteries but most of the big manufacturers are already working on them. Why not come in later and take advantage of all the hard work others have done?

Would, say, Toyota now be in a better position financially if they had been making electric cars at a loss for the last 10 years or ICEs at a profit?

Had Tesla been building ICE cars for the last decade instead of developing BEVs how much profit might they have made?

Nissan/Renault have been manufacturing BEVs for 10 years. Has that given them an advantage over other manufacturers such as Hyundai/Kia who started much later?

I don’t have a clue as to how much money the latter make or lose on cars like the Ionic, Kona and e-Niro but they are very competent cars so I doubt that the legacy automakers will have any technical difficulty actually manufacturing BEVs. As a large part of their manufacturing facilities are already set up for making bodies, interiors suspension etc, the amount of new investment they are likely to require to build electric cars is less than the new entrants. They can divert more of their investment to developing the powertrain side.

I know GM are spending huge amounts on battery tech but is it necessary for all legacy automakers to do so? With rapidly evolving technology why assume you can develop it better than anyone else. LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL, BYD, etc. all have vast experience developing batteries. We know already from the various battery technologies that have been tried that some are more suited to certain applications than others. Tesla are using different chemistries. Why commit to your own battery plant specialising in one chemistry when you might need a mix of batteries for your range of vehicles, from city cars to 40 tonne trucks? Who knows what the next big step in batteries will be and what if you have just committed to building a plant for what you thought was the latest thing, only to find out it is now redundant? What if Toyota pull off solid state batteries - where will that leave others?

I know it is fashionable to write off the legacy automakers (and some most likely will fall by the wayside - I worry about JLR) but I think it is too early to say they are all dead in the water, just yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/27/combustion-engine-car-factories-are-stranded-assets-in-age-of-electric?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Eventually ICE factories are going to go bust. It will cost more money to design and build a new engine than they'll be able to recoup on sales.

So yes, there is an absolute danger of them becoming stranded assets, where they stop being able to sell the engines before the Costa are recouped. The difficult question is when the legacy manufacturers need to draw a line under new R&D and move into a managed decline phase. Doing that whilst seamlessly building up the EV pipeline will be difficult.

You can have dual use assembly lines, but they aren't optimised for EV models and you can't snap your fingers and double your battery output overnight.

Then there's the lumpy reality of manufacturing. A factory may be profitable at 90% utilisation and make a loss at 50%. Not all engine factories build all types of engines and retooling isn't cheap. Imagine if everyone stopped buying diesels for some, unknown, reason. All the diesel plants would be stranded assets and a liability to their owners.

The best analogy I've heard regarding the difficult decision that legacy ICEV manufacturers face was stated on the Tesla Time News channel. They compared the situation to being stuck in the woods with your leg caught in a bear trap. If you just stay like that, you will eventually die. The alternative is to cut your own leg off, at great cost, and then try to crawl your way out. You might make it, you might not, but the longer you lay there with your leg in the trap, trying to decide when to cut your leg off, the less chance you have of making it.

The legacy manufacturers thought they could take their time, perhaps watch and learn from Nissan and Renault - then Tesla came along with their mission statement "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy", and all their plans went to hell!

Ectophile

I'm not sure some people realise how car makers work.  Tesla struggled for years to achieve the production numbers they wanted.  The legacy car makers have been doing it for decades.  And they have spent a long time optimising their supply chains and building up partnerships with suppliers.

Engines are often made at a different factory from the rest of the car.  They can just shut down or repurpose the engine factory.  If they want battery packs, they will buy them in.  If they want motor controllers, they will buy them from an electronics company.  The motor units can be bought in.

They will then update the production line, and start bolting together electric cars, just like they have bolted together petrol and diesel ones for years.  They have to update the production like every time a new model comes out, so that's nothing new.