Estate agent - £25k reduction after a month

billy2shots

Crashy_Time wrote: »

What you actually have to do is look at sold prices AND sales volumes from 2 or 3 years ago to see what the market is doing now.

Average Uk house prices

Sep 2016 = £214,816
Sep 2019 = £234,370


Sales volume is down a little for that time period for a multitude of variables. BTL rules tightening so many second/third homes being sold a few years ago. Brexit also having an effect which will be shortly coming to a conclusion.

I think ignoring average house prices and pinning your hopes on sales volume and a small percentage of houses dropping big chunks off their asking price is not the best indicator of a nearing crash.

Crashy, you joined these forums in July 2014, Uk average house prices were £189,709 and have been predicting a crash since then.
Uk average rents are now £953 per month
Back in 2014 they were £625 so let’s be ultra generous and pretend average rent has remained at 2014 levels.

2014-2019
Average Uk house price increase in cash terms £20,000

Rent spent
Sep 14- Sep 19 = £625 x 12 months x 5 years = £37,500

Average property rise + rent spent = £57,500.

In short Crashy, you need the average Uk house to drop £57,500 or 25% right now just for you to break even. That figure would be 30% plus if we calculate increased average rent over the years.

The longer you continue to wait and procrastinate the bigger drop you need.

You’re in a hugely different scenario to someone new to all this. Somebody leaving the family home and deciding to rent or buy in 2019 ‘may’ be better off renting whilst various political things are sorted out.

You on the other hand have lost your gamble my friend. Now it’s just a case of choosing to cut your losses or hang in there for the mother of all cockups.

Crashy_Time

billy2shots wrote: »

Average Uk house prices

Sep 2016 = £214,816
Sep 2019 = £234,370


Sales volume is down a little for that time period for a multitude of variables. BTL rules tightening so many second/third homes being sold a few years ago. Brexit also having an effect which will be shortly coming to a conclusion.

I think ignoring average house prices and pinning your hopes on sales volume and a small percentage of houses dropping big chunks off their asking price is not the best indicator of a nearing crash.

Crashy, you joined these forums in July 2014, Uk average house prices were £189,709 and have been predicting a crash since then.
Uk average rents are now £953 per month
Back in 2014 they were £625 so let’s be ultra generous and pretend average rent has remained at 2014 levels.

2014-2019
Average Uk house price increase in cash terms £20,000

Rent spent
Sep 14- Sep 19 = £625 x 12 months x 5 years = £37,500

Average property rise + rent spent = £57,500.

In short Crashy, you need the average Uk house to drop £57,500 or 25% right now just for you to break even. That figure would be 30% plus if we calculate increased average rent over the years.

The longer you continue to wait and procrastinate the bigger drop you need.

You’re in a hugely different scenario to someone new to all this. Somebody leaving the family home and deciding to rent or buy in 2019 ‘may’ be better off renting whilst various political things are sorted out.

You on the other hand have lost your gamble my friend. Now it’s just a case of choosing to cut your losses or hang in there for the mother of all cockups.

Would you agree though that if someone`s rent is still well under your 2014 figure they should just ignore your workings and your advice?

Crashy_Time

GDB2222 wrote: »

Sales volumes here
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/847287/UK_Tables_Nov_2019__cir_.xlsx

No change, really.

Can you post up your figures for a longer time period, no change from collapsed volumes is hardly a positive endorsement of the property market?

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Surrey-property-transactions.html

billy2shots

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Would you agree though that if someone`s rent is still well under your 2014 figure they should just ignore your workings and your advice?

No, because unlike you I don’t like to work with individual examples. That’s why I have tried to be fair and use the National average for both.

A middle aged man living with his mum will obviously be in a better financial situation than someone paying average Uk rent.

Crashy_Time

billy2shots wrote: »

No, because unlike you I don’t like to work with individual examples. That’s why I have tried to be fair and use the National average for both.

A middle aged man living with his mum will obviously be in a better financial situation than someone paying average Uk rent.

So we agree that if less people come over to the UK, or leave after Brexit, and more people go back to live with their mum because rents are too high, then rents will most likely drop?

billy2shots

Yes Crashy, you are right. There is a property crash coming. The stock market will also crash at some point and aliens will make contact in the future.

When?

Please put a date on it so you stop coming across as a troll.

GDB2222

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Can you post up your figures for a longer time period, no change from collapsed volumes is hardly a positive endorsement of the property market?

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/Surrey-property-transactions.html

Those ONS figures go back nearly 15 years. ONS may have figures going back further, and you’re welcome to look.

Apart from that CML may have a longer time series.

Crashy_Time

RelievedSheff wrote: »

No. You look at sold data from this year.

Why would you look at three years ago?

Asking prices mean nothing. Asking price reductions mean nothing. It is actual sales data that is important.

Asking price reductions mean everything about sentiment, and smart buyers know that sentiment is very important in regards to how much property sells for.

RelievedSheff

Crashy. If you want to believe that the property is crashing right now before your very eyes. You believe that.

The rest of the sane people will just use the available data and resources that show that not to be the case.

I will try one last time.

A reduction in asking price is irrelevant if that asking price was too high to start with.

You need to compare actual sales data which is not showing the downward trend you seem to believe is happening.

Crashy_Time

RelievedSheff wrote: »

Crashy. If you want to believe that the property is crashing right now before your very eyes. You believe that.

The rest of the sane people will just use the available data and resources that show that not to be the case.

I will try one last time.

A reduction in asking price is irrelevant if that asking price was too high to start with.

You need to compare actual sales data which is not showing the downward trend you seem to believe is happening.

It is not irrelevant if that asking price was becoming a sold price a year or two ago on similar properties, and as stated many times transactions are way down on the peak of the market so a higher average price on lower transactions isn`t really of much benefit to those who can`t find a buyer is it? I`m not saying this is the crash, just that it is obvious that sentiment has changed massively from a few short years ago. It is obvious that there has been a downward trend in sales numbers since the peak of the property bubble, and more recently a downward trend in people`s expectations for the price they can achieve on their property.