ZingPowZing v bowlhead challenge

[Deleted User]

No-one likes an aftertimer, DairyQueen.

bowlhead99

ZingPowZing wrote: »

Interesting graph on your stock, bowlhead.
What was that all about?

I don't understand the question. What is the graph of a stock price about? Or some particular part of a price movement about which you're curious?

For a side bet of £1, may I have a go at the stock picking malarkey with:

Paypal $104.95 = £86.66
Unilever £49.765
Tencent HKD 330.4 = £34.81
Alphabet Class A $1164.25 = £961.40

Aegis

ZingPowZing wrote: »

Still, after noting that it's stupid and meaningless to measure strategies over one year and any result will be more by luck than judgement, I am happy for ZPZ to show us his stock picking skills for three benefit of a charity. - bowlhead

I have seen more backbone in a tin of sardines.

How can a 1yr test be "meaningless" when IFAs use "critical yield" as an alibi for their directions.

Critical yield doesn't mean 1 year's worth of returns, it's the annualised yield required over an entire term of investment in order to achieve a goal. I'm genuinely not sure where you got this particular interpretation from...

Aegis

bowlhead99 wrote: »

I don't understand the question. What is the graph of a stock price about? Or some particular part of a price movement about which you're curious?

For a side bet of £1, may I have a go at the stock picking malarkey with:

Paypal $104.95 = £86.66
Unilever £49.765
Tencent HKD 330.4 = £34.81
Alphabet Class A $1164.25 = £961.40

For such a small bet, at least pick some smaller companies that could rocket!

Aegis

DairyQueen wrote: »

With any luck this thread could top my all-time favourite to-date, Whatever happened to the poster who, in November 2017, forecast a £400k return on his two-year £10k Bitcoin investment?. Tried searching and I can't find it.

Are we allowed to place side bets?

(*Settles in comfy chair with bag of popcorn).

Looks like the thread was sneakily deleted. That's a genuine shame because graffias' predictions could be tested at this point, and BTC definitely isn't anywhere near the $100k per coin he expected by now.

squirrelpie

What exchange rates are being used for the US stocks?
And what dealing charges/duties are included for all stocks?

bowlhead99

beamyup wrote: »

can we also track some kind of more "normal" benchmark aligned fund, and if that wins then you both pay £100 to charity?
e.g. LS100

No.

Picking a global 100% equities benchmark index and comparing it to a mixed asset <100% equities investment vehicle will generally just tell you whether equities went up or down in the period, and doesn't need to be tested. The type of person that buys a mixed asset fund does not want 100% equities exposure, so what 100% equities exposure would have got them over a random short time period is somewhat useless.

Likewise the contention from ZPZ on the other thread that when you are trying to protect or moderately grow your pension assets in the last few years of your life it would be a good idea to just pick your own few stocks and change it up every so often as you 'manage' your exposure to Brexit somehow - rather than diversify across a variety of asset classes and pay a manager for the privilege of that diversification - is not something that is proven or disproven by seeing what a 100% global equity fund would achieve.

So, neither party finds themselves needing to compare results against a 100% equity global fund.

Aegis wrote: »

For such a small bet, at least pick some smaller companies that could rocket!

As our comparison was borne out of a contention that picking (say) four stocks with strong dollar revenue would be a better use of a £160k SIPP than buying a fund that holds a mix of asset types - which was not a contention I agreed with - it would seem a bit cheeky for me to then say, "by the way, you could get a lot more potential returns if you invest in something with no revenues like SXX, or limited revenues and subjective asset valuations like BUR, and hope it all comes good over the next year". Because while I hold those things in my own portfolio, I would not recommend them as the backbone of someone else's SIPP.

[Deleted User]

Aegis wrote: »

Critical yield doesn't mean 1 year's worth of returns, it's the annualised yield required over an entire term of investment in order to achieve a goal. I'm genuinely not sure where you got this particular interpretation from...

My financial adviser calculated the critical yield to the age of 63 (mine).
Unfortunately, not a long hop.

ratechaser

Well I've just rebalanced my pension funds very significantly away from equities and toward gov/corp bonds, so will follow this one with interest...

squirrelpie

bowlhead99 wrote: »

OK, the mixed asset fund is RIT Capital Partners plc.

Closing price on the LSE today was 2055p.

The offer is 2050
What we really need is to see what the opening price is tomorrow morning, since that's the earliest they can be bought.