It's time to start digging up those Squirrelled Nuts!!!!

michaels

Bravepants said:

tigerspill said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Sea_Shell said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

I think you're joking...Hopefully!!


Well, we'll cross that bridge if we come to it.     We'll still be in a better position than most, if things got that bad!!


There are plenty of things I would go without, if it meant not having to go back to work...but would there be any jobs to go back to if things got that bad, as no one would have any spare money for anything, as it'd all be going on Fuel and Baked Beans, so the wider economy would collapse.

I think 12% inflation on top of a 75% crash would wipe almost everyone out...not to mention people losing the homes if interest rates shot up to try and counter inflation.

So, "end of civilisation as we know it" aside....I'll take my chances!!  

Inflation could run riot in the UK economy again, history often repeats itself. Have a look at UK inflation figures between 1970 and 1982.

However, dies the government not now have a much better understanding of how to control inflation?

Inflation is controlled by meeting demand by increasing production to meet demand, or by increasing interest rates to reduce demand. There's not much else in the equation really.

You can reduce demand via increased taxation and or reduced govt spending.

Bravepants

michaels said:

Bravepants said:

tigerspill said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Sea_Shell said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

I think you're joking...Hopefully!!


Well, we'll cross that bridge if we come to it.     We'll still be in a better position than most, if things got that bad!!


There are plenty of things I would go without, if it meant not having to go back to work...but would there be any jobs to go back to if things got that bad, as no one would have any spare money for anything, as it'd all be going on Fuel and Baked Beans, so the wider economy would collapse.

I think 12% inflation on top of a 75% crash would wipe almost everyone out...not to mention people losing the homes if interest rates shot up to try and counter inflation.

So, "end of civilisation as we know it" aside....I'll take my chances!!  

Inflation could run riot in the UK economy again, history often repeats itself. Have a look at UK inflation figures between 1970 and 1982.

However, dies the government not now have a much better understanding of how to control inflation?

Inflation is controlled by meeting demand by increasing production to meet demand, or by increasing interest rates to reduce demand. There's not much else in the equation really.

You can reduce demand via increased taxation and or reduced govt spending.

It depends on whether the Government decides to interfere or not. Surely you would not expect a Tory Government to interfere with the economic cycle?  

Dansmam

tigerspill said:

SouthCoastBoy said:

Sea_Shell said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

I think you're joking...Hopefully!!


Well, we'll cross that bridge if we come to it.     We'll still be in a better position than most, if things got that bad!!


There are plenty of things I would go without, if it meant not having to go back to work...but would there be any jobs to go back to if things got that bad, as no one would have any spare money for anything, as it'd all be going on Fuel and Baked Beans, so the wider economy would collapse.

I think 12% inflation on top of a 75% crash would wipe almost everyone out...not to mention people losing the homes if interest rates shot up to try and counter inflation.

So, "end of civilisation as we know it" aside....I'll take my chances!!  

Inflation could run riot in the UK economy again, history often repeats itself. Have a look at UK inflation figures between 1970 and 1982.

However, dies the government not now have a much better understanding of how to control inflation?

😳 to which government do you refer @tigerspill? The current one has a track record. Not personally convinced that will keep inflation controlled given current  strategy, interest rates and pressures on costs. Will now dodge back behind the barricades to await deluge of examples of government percipience, perception and perfection. Or will it be all BoE fault?

sevenhills

Bravepants said:

It depends on whether the Government decides to interfere or not. Surely you would not expect a Tory Government to interfere with the economic cycle?  

Universal credit is being cut and corporation tax increased in 2023, although private sector  wages are increasing; the public sector won't be allowed large pay rises.

Will that cause a winter of discontent? Can the Government really control the monetary flow?

Sea_Shell

I don't know about any "winter of discontent" but it does make me almost want to go into "One more year" mode.

Although in my circumstances, its not "one more year" of working....It's "one more year" before really letting the brakes off and spending.

I find myself now thinking "lets just see how the land lies in the Spring", as it all feels so unsettled at the moment.

TBH, we're due to go away at the weekend (already paid for) and we might get one more trip end of October, but other than that we don't really spend much over the winter.   We tend to hibernate anyway.

So I think I'll be keeping my nuts in storage for a little bit longer!!! 

 

22 in 22 is off!!!!   
(unless our newly purchased Premium Bonds come up trumps in November!!)

MallyGirl

MallyGirl said:

we are with pure planet right now, which is green for both, and their rates are quite a lot lower than octopus for variable. We are high users so go for lower rate/higher standing charge for best savings. I am going to switch to Sainsbury's I think - green electric but not gas. We'll get a smart meter which might focus people's mind - like Mr 'the hifi sounds better when it is left on all the time to stay warm'!

Glad I did get myself sorted and switched on Monday. That tariff is now gone and the new one being offered is significantly more expensive. It is going to be a strange year as we are in the final throes of remortgaging away from an offset to a 5 year fixed rate so our 2 major outgoings will be fixed. We are going to be dealing with savings for the first time in years, plus the plan for OH's LTA management next year will liberate a fair bit of cash.
We have a close friend, 56, with terminal brain cancer and another from the same small group has just told us they have Frontal disexecutive syndrome and will be retired due ill health at 54. So awful. For me this is all the more reason to be squirreling to allow an early exit while we can still enjoy it.

cfw1994

Sea_Shell said:

I think I'll be keeping my nuts in storage for a little bit longer!!! 

22 in 22 is off!!!!   

Pfffft…..keep the faith!
You, of all of us here, will be just fine 💪😎👍
& it’s up to you to keep the economy moving forwards 🤪

Sea_Shell

Afternoon everyone on a thoroughly miserable wet Saturday!!

We're just back from a week away, and we had a great time.   Managed to dodge most of the rain and walked about 26 miles in total (my new shoes were very comfy).    We are now however down to 1/4 tank of petrol.   We want to book again somewhere for a week or so's time...but not until we've secured some fuel for the trip.    I have no idea what's its been like round our way.

Anyway, enough of that!!

We had 3 pub meals out, at about £33 a pop (just mains* and a pint each), and with a bit of parking here and their spent about £110.

Just been updating everything with receipts etc. and looked at the ISA's and pensions....oh dear oh dear!!   £10k down from last month.   Ho hum! 

Better go for a run in the morning to burn more of the food off as the portions in the pubs we went to were very generous!! 

* No room for starters or puddings.    I did joking say to one of the waiting staff that they'll never sell any puddings with mains that size!!!   She said they don't sell many!!

Audaxer

Sea_Shell said:

22 in 22 is off!!!!   
(unless our newly purchased Premium Bonds come up trumps in November!!)

What does 22 in 22 mean?

Sea_Shell

Audaxer said:

Sea_Shell said:

22 in 22 is off!!!!   
(unless our newly purchased Premium Bonds come up trumps in November!!)

What does 22 in 22 mean?

To spend £22,000 during 2022!!!



So basically let the moths out of our wallets 🤣🤣🤣