It's time to start digging up those Squirrelled Nuts!!!!

ex-pat_scot

cfw1994 said:

OldScientist said:

cfw1994 said:

michaels said:

Sea_Shell said:

For anyone interested, thi.£500,000

Sadly whsuccess.

Away froat assessment?

Is soarranted).

That could be it!  For those not reading the link (& it is a bit technical), a couple of lines that stand out to me:

there is a strong and consistent relationship between safe withdrawal rates for a 60/40 portfolio and the real returns of equities during the first decade of retirement. ……

…… In other words, just as a bad first decade can be so severe with ongoing withdrawals that a subsequent market rebound just isn't enough to recover, but a good first decade can be so positive than even a subsequent bear market can’t ruin the outcome!

Does that article reassure you, michaels?

I still reckon many of us here would fail long before Seashell has any issues 🤣👍

@seashell will be the last (wo)man standing, pretty much.

Sea_Shell

ex-pat_scot said:

cfw1994 said:

OldScientist said:

cfw1994 said:

michaels said:

Sea_Shell said:

For anyone interested, thi.£500,000

Sadly whsuccess.

Away froat assessment?

Is soarranted).

That could be it!  For those not reading the link (& it is a bit technical), a couple of lines that stand out to me:

there is a strong and consistent relationship between safe withdrawal rates for a 60/40 portfolio and the real returns of equities during the first decade of retirement. ……

…… In other words, just as a bad first decade can be so severe with ongoing withdrawals that a subsequent market rebound just isn't enough to recover, but a good first decade can be so positive than even a subsequent bear market can’t ruin the outcome!

Does that article reassure you, michaels?

I still reckon many of us here would fail long before Seashell has any issues 🤣👍

@seashell will be the last (wo)man standing, pretty much.

And I shall defend my last tin of beans to the death!!! 😉



(You've @ the wrong Sea Shell)

Terron

BarbaraG2000 said:

On the energy bill issue, I am hoping against hope that the EPC for our new (build) house is even remotely right, because if it is, we should be using about half the gas we did in the previous place.  Seeing how hard we’ve had to try in the past few weeks to keep the temperature down to anything like a bearable level, I don’t think the heating is going to need to be on very much to keep us comfortable in the winter.

Another bonus is that we seem to be using marginally less electricity in this house than the previous one, despite switching from gas to electric cooking. I’m putting this down to the white goods being newer and therefore more efficient.

I got around to having my front door fixed a couple of months ago. The glass panels had slipped and the mailbox was loose. That seems to have made a big difference to my heating.

enthusiasticsaver

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

We would all be wiped out if that happened!

Ibrahim5

Terron said:

BarbaraG2000 said:

On the energy bill issue, I am hoping against hope that the EPC for our new (build) house is even remotely right, because if it is, we should be using about half the gas we did in the previous place.  Seeing how hard we’ve had to try in the past few weeks to keep the temperature down to anything like a bearable level, I don’t think the heating is going to need to be on very much to keep us comfortable in the winter.

Another bonus is that we seem to be using marginally less electricity in this house than the previous one, despite switching from gas to electric cooking. I’m putting this down to the white goods being newer and therefore more efficient.

I got around to having my front door fixed a couple of months ago. The glass panels had slipped and the mailbox was loose. That seems to have made a big difference to my heating.

Yes I think my house could do with better insulation. Best go and sit in the middle of the road and block the traffic. Surely that'll work.

westv

Terron said:

I got around to having my front door fixed a couple of months ago. The glass panels had slipped and the mailbox was loose. That seems to have made a big difference to my heating.

I trust its not one of those silly letter boxes that's at ground level rather than in the middle of the door! 

Sea_Shell

enthusiasticsaver said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

We would all be wiped out if that happened!

I have to admit though, with all the negative news around at the moment, to feeling a little bit...unnerved.

westv

Sea_Shell said:

enthusiasticsaver said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

We would all be wiped out if that happened!

I have to admit though, with all the negative news around at the moment, to feeling a little bit...unnerved.

The point of a safe (as possible) withdrawal rate is so that you can rest easy if things ever look like getting tough.

Sea_Shell

westv said:

Sea_Shell said:

enthusiasticsaver said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

We would all be wiped out if that happened!

I have to admit though, with all the negative news around at the moment, to feeling a little bit...unnerved.

The point of a safe (as possible) withdrawal rate is so that you can rest easy if things ever look like getting tough.

But it's not just about me (us), it's about friends and family, and the wider economy.

We might have enough room on our lifeboat for us...but not for passengers!!

What if they're "clinging to a wooden door!!!"

SouthCoastBoy

Sea_Shell said:

shinytop said:

QrizB said:

Sea_Shell said:

Sadly while it looks great I suspect many 'failing' withdrawal portfolios looked great for the first few years.  You  also need to present it it real inflation adjusted) terms for it to be meaningful.   I'm not saying any info is worse than no info but just that seeing a line go in the right direction for 5 (or even 10+) years doesn't actually mean that the overall outcome will be a success.

We have inflationary adjusted projections on another spreadsheet!! 🤣

"Right direction" for us can even be a gentle downslope, and only HAS to last 10 years (at full spends).

So an 75% drop tomorrow with no recovery would see you on £156k, enough to take £15k6 for ten years? And you're only hoping to spend £15k pa anyway? Sounds like you'll be fine

Not so fast, inflation at what, 10 or 12 percent for a few years on top of the 75% would wipe you out. You're doomed !  You'll have to go back to work or spend even less.  

I think you're joking...Hopefully!!


Well, we'll cross that bridge if we come to it.     We'll still be in a better position than most, if things got that bad!!


There are plenty of things I would go without, if it meant not having to go back to work...but would there be any jobs to go back to if things got that bad, as no one would have any spare money for anything, as it'd all be going on Fuel and Baked Beans, so the wider economy would collapse.

I think 12% inflation on top of a 75% crash would wipe almost everyone out...not to mention people losing the homes if interest rates shot up to try and counter inflation.

So, "end of civilisation as we know it" aside....I'll take my chances!!  

Inflation could run riot in the UK economy again, history often repeats itself. Have a look at UK inflation figures between 1970 and 1982.