The Top Easy Access Savings Discussion Area

cwep2

boingy said:

wiseonesomeofthetime said:

"Inflation in the UK dropped to 7.9% in the year to June from 8.7% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics." - BBC

Let's see what effect that has on decision making at the next BoE interest rate meeting in a few weeks' time.

Slightly better than predicted but still stubbornly high. I think it will split the BoE committee but they'll still go for an increase, probably 0.25%.

Inflation still way above target. Before this data market was pricing either 0.25% or 0.50% with the latter much more likely. I would be gobsmacked if they don't hike by 0.25%, but think any more is very unlikely now.

This is the first piece of good news - previous readings had seen headline inflation fall but core inflation still increasing, this time core inflation fell (unexpectedly) but it is still 6.9% and remember this doesn't include food or energy (or rent/mortgage payments) so they still need to keep rates high and this is only one piece of data, we have two more CPI readings before the September BoE meeting so if they don't raise rates on 3rd August there could be egg on their faces if the next CPI readings are high. If they get 3 benign readings in a row then no change in September is fine rather than having to course correct for not raising rates in August and adding another 0.5%. There has (justifiably IMHO) been a lot of criticism that the BoE were too slow to react and raise rates at the start of the hiking cycle, which means they have to raise them higher at the end so they will want to avoid that situation as well.

The committee will absolutely be split, there are 2 voters (Dhingra and Tenreyro) who have voted against raising rates since December 2022 when rates were 3%, so I would expect a vote of 7-2 as the previous four meetings, but we may get one or two members (Mann?) voting for a bigger increase.

Either way gilt yields are down quite a bit today so we may have seen the peak in fixes, and it is possible that August is the peak in the Bank Rate for the UK.

pecunianonolet

cwep2 said:

boingy said:

wiseonesomeofthetime said:

"Inflation in the UK dropped to 7.9% in the year to June from 8.7% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics." - BBC

Let's see what effect that has on decision making at the next BoE interest rate meeting in a few weeks' time.

Slightly better than predicted but still stubbornly high. I think it will split the BoE committee but they'll still go for an increase, probably 0.25%.

Inflation still way above target. Before this data market was pricing either 0.25% or 0.50% with the latter much more likely. I would be gobsmacked if they don't hike by 0.25%, but think any more is very unlikely now.

This is the first piece of good news - previous readings had seen headline inflation fall but core inflation still increasing, this time core inflation fell (unexpectedly) but it is still 6.9% and remember this doesn't include food or energy (or rent/mortgage payments) so they still need to keep rates high and this is only one piece of data, we have two more CPI readings before the September BoE meeting so if they don't raise rates on 3rd August there could be egg on their faces if the next CPI readings are high. If they get 3 benign readings in a row then no change in September is fine rather than having to course correct for not raising rates in August and adding another 0.5%. There has (justifiably IMHO) been a lot of criticism that the BoE were too slow to react and raise rates at the start of the hiking cycle, which means they have to raise them higher at the end so they will want to avoid that situation as well.

The committee will absolutely be split, there are 2 voters (Dhingra and Tenreyro) who have voted against raising rates since December 2022 when rates were 3%, so I would expect a vote of 7-2 as the previous four meetings, but we may get one or two members (Mann?) voting for a bigger increase.

Either way gilt yields are down quite a bit today so we may have seen the peak in fixes, and it is possible that August is the peak in the Bank Rate for the UK.

- Low energy usage, it is summer after all, and we're not sweating like the central and south of Europe and keep AC on full blast 24/7 so as soon as we hit the dark time and winter, demand will increase and so likely energy prices stay at least at the current level or slightly increase again

- Grain deal with Ukraine/Russia no longer in place and grain prices have already reacted. Top 3 grain importers from Ukraine were China, Netherlands and Turkey. Most of the grain, especially in China, is to feed animals such as pig farms in China.

- Extreme heat across Europe and other parts of the world will have a significant impact on food prices e.g. olive harvest at massive risk in Europe so expect olive oil to increase in price. Grain harvest yields will be down, so bakery items might jump further and since a lot of grain is used to feed animals, meat produce prices will remain high or increase further

- Food safety checks for all food items from EU from October (currently only for non EU imported items). More paperwork, more certificates, more cost. I would be very surprised if importers and supermarkets have already priced this in so expect this to be passed on. Another Brexit gift. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-65757282
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/26/post-brexit-import-checks-risk-further-pushing-up-food-prices-industry-group

- Record debt and higher interest rates also mean higher interest for repayment of debt, so much less money left for the gov. High inflation usually has a "welcoming effect" for gov to get rid of debt easier but much less effect in the UK due to many gilts having short terms. Gilt experts may be able t explain in more detail.

- 3 by elections this week, depending on result increased pressure for a GE sooner. Because of the point before, no budget left for tax reduction gifts to attract voters. Autumn budget will be interesting, expect higher taxes.

So the inflation number will come down as it is a comparison to 12 months ago, hence an easy but rather meaningless promise by the gov to say they half inflation. The high prices are here to stay and the pressure on households won't go away, it will just be a little less painful for many. 

Bridlington1

@soulsaver
Secure Trust Bank Access Account now pays 4.45%.

pepsi_max2k

MichaelAP said:

With Chip; what happens when your linked bank is approaching the end of its connection. In other words, to maintain connection what must be done?

It gives you a popup notification in the app in advance, and then you click one button to confirm relinking it.

happybagger

[Deleted User] said:

TiVo_Lad said:

No authenticator app required. Just username (you choose), password (you choose) and passcode (you choose). I sent a Faster Payment deposit and it was in the account within a couple of minutes.

Revisiting this one, who are the main providers offering leading rates which allow online logging in without an authenticator? Leeds & Coventry BS come to mind?

YBS you need a mobile to receive a text.

Or a voice call to a landline or mobile number will do for YBS

10_66

Anyone tried making a postal withdrawal from Hanley (NLA) yet?  If so, how long did it take from sending postal request in, to when you received FP into nominated account, please?

PhilFox1985

cwep2 said:

boingy said:

wiseonesomeofthetime said:

"Inflation in the UK dropped to 7.9% in the year to June from 8.7% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics." - BBC

Let's see what effect that has on decision making at the next BoE interest rate meeting in a few weeks' time.

Slightly better than predicted but still stubbornly high. I think it will split the BoE committee but they'll still go for an increase, probably 0.25%.

Inflation still way above target. Before this data market was pricing either 0.25% or 0.50% with the latter much more likely. I would be gobsmacked if they don't hike by 0.25%, but think any more is very unlikely now.

This is the first piece of good news - previous readings had seen headline inflation fall but core inflation still increasing, this time core inflation fell (unexpectedly) but it is still 6.9% and remember this doesn't include food or energy (or rent/mortgage payments) so they still need to keep rates high and this is only one piece of data, we have two more CPI readings before the September BoE meeting so if they don't raise rates on 3rd August there could be egg on their faces if the next CPI readings are high. If they get 3 benign readings in a row then no change in September is fine rather than having to course correct for not raising rates in August and adding another 0.5%. There has (justifiably IMHO) been a lot of criticism that the BoE were too slow to react and raise rates at the start of the hiking cycle, which means they have to raise them higher at the end so they will want to avoid that situation as well.

The committee will absolutely be split, there are 2 voters (Dhingra and Tenreyro) who have voted against raising rates since December 2022 when rates were 3%, so I would expect a vote of 7-2 as the previous four meetings, but we may get one or two members (Mann?) voting for a bigger increase.

Either way gilt yields are down quite a bit today so we may have seen the peak in fixes, and it is possible that August is the peak in the Bank Rate for the UK.

I'm not 100%, but I think I heard that Tenreyro had completed her term.

That's likely to mean (on balance) a stronger concensus for rate hikes (I.e you may see 8-1 votes rather than 7-2).

Probably means relatively little at this point.

13zero8

It's a slow afternoon so I decided to count how many easy access savings accounts I have......

26 at the moment. 

Out of interest, how many do you lot have?

I try to close ones that I obviously won't use anymore as the rates are stupidly low. But even doing that I'm still left with loads, most with about in a quid in them, with rates around the low 4s.

redchiz

martinm1 said:

If you do ditch chip after 4th working day of month you don't get the interest.  Is that correct how I read their terms?  Just something to be aware of.

That may have been the case when they paid a monthly "bonus" rather than interest, as they do on a more conventional basis now. 

25_Years_On

Bridlington1 said:

@soulsaver
Secure Trust Bank Access Account now pays 4.45%.

I see this a new issue - version 8 so all the version 7 holders need to open a new account I guess.