Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

adindas

Herzlos wrote: »

Yet you (Brexiteers, at least) said the IMF was unreliable when they said Brexit would hurt the UK?
You're also talking about a (from memory) 0.1 percentage point difference here? Noise.

That was IMF under Christine Laggarde. Now she is the chief of ECB.
DUH! We got our sums wrong! IMF FINALLY admits Brexit Britain will be a world force
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1231256/project-fear-brexit-news-imf-backtracks-christine-lagarde-eu-davos

"The 2016 article is headlined: “IMF: Brexit hit to UK could be ‘pretty bad to very, very bad’”
She said she had ”not seen anything that’s positive” about Brexit, warning it could lead to a “technical recession”.
What Brexodus? More than 1,000 EU firms apply for licence
The 2016 article is headlined: “IMF: Brexit hit to UK could be ‘pretty bad to very, very bad’”.

Published barely a month before the vote, the story cites an IMF report which claims: “A vote for exit would precipitate a protracted period of heightened uncertainty, leading to financial market volatility and a hit to output.”
However, fast-forward four years and things do not appear to be quite so bleak, with Mr Winstone including for comparison a story published yesterday headlined:

“IMF predicts stable growth after Britain’s exit from EU”.
Speaking four years ago Ms Lagarde said the impact of Brexit would have “pretty bad, to very, very bad” consequences for the UK.
She said she had ”not seen anything that’s positive” about Brexit, warning it could lead to a “technical recession”.

An IMF report on the UK economy suggested a leave vote could have a “negative and substantial effect”.
The previous report suggested it would have “severe regional and global damage”.

Then-Chancellor George Osborne also weighed in, saying: “Not a single serious economist does not think Brexit will be bad for the economy.”
World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab (Image: Reuters)

In stark contrast, the IMF’s latest assessment of UK prospects over the course of the next two year is optimistic.

Growth is predicted to be 1.4 percent this year and 1.5 per percent in 2021, in each case better than the Euro Area, where the figures are 1.3 percent and 1.4 percent respectively.

In addition, the UK figures are superior to those of Germany (1.1 percent and 1.4 percent) and France (1.3 percent for both years).

Herzlos wrote: »

You're also comparing apples and yachts here. You should be comparing how the UK is doing outside the EU Vs what it'd be doing inside the EU, rather than comparing it to the EU.

No One ever argues that Brexit will not impact the UK in the short term. But so is the impact on the EU. But keep in mind Brexit is about a long tern impact, not short term.

UK is about to leave and the prediction is in favour of a better economic prospect.

Getting_greyer

adindas wrote: »

It is interesting to see how the people react when asked about the newly created profile. ....

At least I am using my original profile that was created since 2010. I have been using it to post not only the view, opinion of brexit but for other posts as well to show my integrity.

With mobile internet people could easily create a dozen of profiles without being able to be identified. I know, a few old posters here have created a new profile to hide their previous scaremongering views on brexit which has been proven to be untrue day by day. They are ashamed to acknowledge that they got it wrong. Which one you are, it is only you could know.

And well, sensible people are not giving the time of day to other posters they do not like.

I'm not sure how to reply to this. Do you think this is some sort of gotcha moment? I'll lay it out for you Inspector. My old name was badgerhead. Couldnt remember my old email logon details. If you can keep your hands out of your pants whilst doing it, scroll through my posts, you will see posts from past 12 months or so that are generally Brexit sceptical you will also see if pretty against inequality and like to muse on political concepts and ideologies. Thinking brexit is bad is not scaremongering. Any prediction that one doesn't like can be called scaremongering. Am I proven wrong ? No, I'm not proven right either. We'll find out in a few years or so. As long as I've not been tried for treason that is. Just hope the multiple operational tours I've served my country in count in my favour.

Since we're sharing life stories now anything you'd like to share with the group? Or will you be too busy with your comb and my posts about cooking during my early 20's?

Herzlos

Fran_Klee wrote: »

Or is the suggestion of mass murder somehow more acceptable if it is made by a fellow remain supporter?

Except it wasn't a suggestion of mass murder, it was a throwaway comment showing how England wouldn't attempt to occupy Scotland. They don't invade anywhere with nukes.


Plus, I thought it was common that Scottish Nationalists want to abolish Trident because they'd never use them.


You guys are good at twisting things, though :money:

melanzana

Next Friday means nothing. It is just symbolic and a lot of work and negotiations + Trade Deals must be sorted by July I think?

Anyway, it doesn't matter much since Johnson doesn't care and will continue to say Brexit is done next Friday. Those who believe that are deluded, and Johnson doesn't care what they think either. That is because the red tops will insist he has delivered the Holy Grail on 31/1. And we all know those who read these red tops and believe everything they say are also blinkered. yee ha.

Conned. Mark my words. But as a Rejoiner I am not allowed to speak.

I expect Adindas to respond Toot Sweet with more rubbish. Hey ho.

adindas

melanzana wrote: »

Next Friday means nothing. It is just symbolic and a lot of work and negotiations + Trade Deals must be sorted by July I think?

Anyway, it doesn't matter much since Johnson doesn't care and will continue to say Brexit is done next Friday. Those who believe that are deluded, and Johnson doesn't care what they think either. That is because the red tops will insist he has delivered the Holy Grail on 31/1. And we all know those who read these red tops and believe everything they say are also blinkered. yee ha.

Conned. Mark my words. But as a Rejoiner I am not allowed to speak.

I expect Adindas to respond Toot Sweet with more rubbish. Hey ho.

Next Friday means a lot and will be written in the history. At least people Could say go to hel;l with the Eu single market, ECJ ...

The UK could decide for a no deal anytime.

Moe_The_Bartender

Herzlos wrote: »

It did.



Brexit has played out pretty much as we said it would.

There are 2 predictions that were made (more or less). World war 3 (misattributed) and the recession, which we've skirted but not actually entered.

But you must know that by now.

I sometimes wonder if you live in some kind of parallel universe. You appear to think that unprecedented levels of employment and continued economic growth means that the economy has hit the rocks. If that is the case, what on earth do you think of the weaker growth and higher unemployment in that paradise on earth, the EU.

Herzlos

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

I sometimes wonder if you live in some kind of parallel universe. You appear to think that unprecedented levels of employment and continued economic growth means that the economy has hit the rocks. If that is the case, what on earth do you think of the weaker growth and higher unemployment in that paradise on earth, the EU.

I wonder if it's you who's in the parallel universe. Walking down any high street here tells the same grim story, food banks on the rise, increase in homelessness.

If the economy is doing so well for everyone, wheres the money?

Herzlos

adindas wrote: »

Next Friday means a lot and will be written in the history. At least people Could say go to hel;l with the Eu single market, ECJ ...

The UK could decide for a no deal anytime.

We'll still be in the single market on Saturday. No deal just ain't going to happen.

What will happen is that Johnson will declare brexit done, ban anyone mentioning brexit and then get on with the activity formerly known as brexit, but we'll now call something else.

Brexit wont actually be done until we've left with a deal in place, some time.in the next decade or so.

We could have been out already if we were honest about what we wanted.

goral

adindas wrote: »

Next Friday means a lot and will be written in the history. At least people Could say go to hel;l with the Eu single market, ECJ ...

The UK could decide for a no deal anytime.

And? What will be good for average person in UK after brexit?
What opportunity will be have ordinary British citizen after brext?

goral

fatbeetle wrote: »

What does that have to do with the Australian points system?

Answer about point system visa is in post number: #7608
Australian point system visa was granted around ~65000 last year, total emigration to Australia was more then 3000000.
So, in total Australian point system visa is around 2% of total immigration.


Link:
https://www.politico.eu/article/australia-immigration-system-migration-brexit-boris-johnson/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=97e60f1a4b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_01_28_07_04&utm_medium=email&u%20%20tm_term=0_10959edeb5-97e60f1a4b-190026745