Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

gfplux

For those interested the EU negotiating team released a slide presentation last week on their approach to the future trade talks with the UK.
This of course as we all know is based on the Political Declaration.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/seminar-20200116-lawenf_en.pdf

goral

I do not deny the right to democratic referendums. But if most say that the moon is made of cheese does not mean that it really is.

Sailtheworld

Tromking wrote: »

IMF predicts the U.K. economy will grow faster than the Eurozone in the first two years after Brexit. Weird.

I would've thought any brexiteer worth his salt wouldn't give any credence to (a) any IMF forecast and (b) a forecast which predicts a growth difference of 0.1% (i.e. noise) over two years.

We're not exactly going to be accelerating to those sunlit uplands with growth of 1.4% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021 especially as those predictions assume an orderly and gradual move to a new trading relationship. Let's not kid ourselves that the craggy shores of Europe are done wrecking the careers of Tories just yet.

Like it or not the UK is going to continue to mirror the fortunes of the EU because of simple geography and trade. Anyone crowing because the IMF is forecasting lack lustre growth in Europe as a whole is someone who struggles to see the bigger picture.

mayonnaise

If I remember well, the IMF was part of Project Feer so shouldn't be given too much credence.

Tromking

I can smell the growing disappointment from some on here that the oft repeated prediction of economic Armageddon for the UK may not be all they hoped for. Although to their credit, they do tend to alter their chosen metric for Brexit disaster each time a bit of benign economic news is announced about the UK. It wasn't long ago they talked of mass unemployment, recession's, rampant inflation and the rest, now predictions of anaemic growth is supposed to act as the argument against Brexit.
And they have the temerity to call Brexiteers the charlatans.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

I can smell the growing disappointment from some on here that the oft repeated prediction of economic Armageddon for the UK may not be all they hoped for.

We're all hoping it works out and these uplands happen. Just one group of us is trying to figure out how and the other group is going "lalalala sunlit uplands".

borntobefree wrote: »

I’m sure if you really want to Leave it already does. Kowtowing doesn’t feel that great does it?

But we're not kowtowing to anyone, and as far as I can tell we're not actually gaining any freedom to do anything unless we want to destroy the economy.

Even as a Remainer I hated the way the EU treated Cameron and don’t even mention how they treated May.

I dare say both deserved it - they went to the EU purely for home crowd grand standing and were met by competent politicians.

In recent years Britain seems to have had no influence in the EU anyways, so I guess we’ve lost nothing in that regard.

We've certainly had no influence in the EU for the last 3.5 years, because we asked not to be.

adindas wrote: »

[FONT=&quot]As previously mentioned, I will not be answering any personal question.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/quote[FONT=&quot]][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]I don't think he was asking about you, adindas, directly. More the royal you, or one. What opportunities are available for someone that didn't already exist?[/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]

Brexit is a mandate from the referendum. It is a democratic process. Democracy is priceless, no money could buy. In the past people will need to shed blood for this cause.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]So why are you so keen to deny another referendum to let people have their democratic say?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

Also, not to mention, free from ECJ.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The ECJ has been instrumental in protecting UK citizens from the UK governments worst excesses. The daily rags will say all it does is prevent terrorists being deported, but that's just not actually true.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- When you suddenly have money in your pocket is it not an opportunity?? Opportunity to stimulate economy, new infrastructure, etc

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Where is this money coming from? Brexit has cost us more than we've ever contributed to the EU and we've not even left yet. Even Boris' figures show we're going to be worse off.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]

- When a country could do direct trading by its own with other countries without intermediary I it not an opportunity? No more EU political quota.

[/FONT]
Yeah, we can form trade deals faster and if we diverge we can lower standards to suit them. Who do you think we should be forming trade deals with that is worth losing the trade deals with and via the EU?


[FONT=&quot]

- Opportunity in fishing industries.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Because we can fish our waters but not any others? Are we going to break up the quotas that were sold off to huge corporations?[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]

I do not remember anyone ever argue that with Brexit there is no short-term impact on the UK. But keep in mind the impact is also on the EU. Moreover, Brexit is about a long-term benefit, not short term[/FONT]

Yeah, this long term benefit that Reese Mogg said might take more than 50 years to see?
Can you see any path to a long term benefit?

Sailtheworld

Tromking wrote: »

I can smell the growing disappointment from some on here that the oft repeated prediction of economic Armageddon for the UK may not be all they hoped for. Although to their credit, they do tend to alter their chosen metric for Brexit disaster each time a bit of benign economic news is announced about the UK. It wasn't long ago they talked of mass unemployment, recession's, rampant inflation and the rest, now predictions of anaemic growth is supposed to act as the argument against Brexit.
And they have the temerity to call Brexiteers the charlatans.

I never predicted a brexit Armageddon so you can't be talking about me.

I've been consistent in my view that the UK will be worse off outside the UK. This isn't the place to debate this because it requires a counterfactual position i.e. what would growth (or any other metric) be if the UK hadn't had a brexit referendum in 2016.

Obviously there's no point debating this with the brexiteers on here because that counterfactual requires both an inquisitive mind and the input of economic experts. The former is absent and their thought leaders have taught them to listen only to the one true voice and ignore all others.

The evidence is at hand i.e. clowns being happy about forecasts of weak economic growth because of a 0.1% different between two neigbouring areas.

I only come here to feel intellectually superior. I know - I should set the bar a bit higher - maybe I should benchmark the early morning drinkers in 'spoons.

adindas

Tromking wrote: »

IMF predicts the U.K. economy will grow faster than the Eurozone in the first two years after Brexit. Weird.

uk-economy-will-grow-faster-than-eu-rivals-in-brexit-year-says-imf
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10785337/uk-economy-will-grow-faster-than-eu-rivals-in-brexit-year-says-imf/

The same institution who predicted slow growth, doomsday armageddon for British Economy when it was chaired by a French woman Christine Lagarde. During the referendum, short after the triggering article 50, during first stage of negotiation when the IMF was chaired by Christine Lagarde how many times IMF has been revising against its UK growth prediction ?? How many times has it been proven that the IMF prediction is wrong ?? This has made IMF, a very reputable Institution, should be independent to become a laughing stock.

Since November 2019 This woman has become President of the European Central Bank. With her new role, she is now quiet shy away from making prediction about UK economy. She is shy away knowing that her previous prediction about doomsday for brexit, economics growth have been proven untrue.

It seems that the IMF new chief, board of directors know that IMF had been used as political vehicle by this woman for personal gain and ambition who were eyeing the ECB and might be more.

mayonnaise wrote: »

If I remember well, the IMF was part of Project Feer so shouldn't be given too much credence.

Could you not see that the new IMF chief has know let the cat (the old chief) out of the bag (see above).

People on here recognise "mayonnaise" is one of recognizable figure as an arch remoaner who always talk bad about the British Economy after Brexit. Was the above statement an acknowledgement of the obvious to make a person looks good or just a sarcasm ?? Well you do not need to answer that question as people know that arch remoners will always do everything they could to make Brexit looking doom.

Anti Brexit campaign were funded / sponsored by multi billionaires, well known figures. Just to name IMF, ECB, Former US president Obama, George Soros, UK's richest businessmen. Many of surveys institutions such as IFS get funded to produce results the anti brexit wanted to hear. Compare it to how much money the Brexit Campaigners have got ??

Is it not embarrassing anti Brexit campaigners have got so much funding, political supports but still losers in many fronts. Just look at the emerging of Brexit Party during the EU referendum, the recent GE result.

Tromking

It’s not too late Saily to admit you called it wrong.

Moe_The_Bartender

gfplux wrote: »

For those interested the EU negotiating team released a slide presentation last week on their approach to the future trade talks with the UK.
This of course as we all know is based on the Political Declaration.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/seminar-20200116-lawenf_en.pdf

Where is trade mentioned in there? Did I miss something?