Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

SpiderLegs

mayonnaise wrote: »

After Farage's capitulation today, I have to revise my forecast:

Con 300
Lab 250
Lib Dem 40
Brexit 0
SNP 40
Other 20

God that would be truly fantastic. PM Jezza here we come :j

Dee_Best

Takedap wrote: »

Not if the bill is for things you have already committed to.

We've neither of us committed to any future relationship though, have we.

Ballard

Dee_Best wrote: »

We've neither of us committed to any future relationship though, have we.

The view that the ‘divorce’ payment is only payable if a deal is struck is a common one but my understanding is that it’s entirely separate and is simply to pay for things for which we had already committed prior to the referendum.

Zero_Gravitas

I’ve posted this before, but it’s worth repeating in the light of this continuing leave lie:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48586677

In essence, we are paying for already-agreed future commitments, which continue to fall due until after the middle of this century. Interestingly, there are a couple of years when we get some money back.

gfplux

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

Given that we are already so closely aligned with the EU, there is little reason why any deal could not be completed in a year. If it doesn’t happen, the most likely cause would be EU intransigence.

But, hey, they wouldn’t do that seeing as we are best buddies and all that.

I am sure a lot of work by Civil Servants for a trade deal has been going on in the background.
However one of the many reasons a trade deal takes a long time is negotiating the various interests of the partys involved. Any EU “intransigence” will be them looking after their interests.
Will the British interests be looked after by the British Politicians. I am not so sure. There might be a desperation to do a quick deal on the British side. This desperation might leave some British people’s interests behind.

Trade deals.
What does MY country want to sell more of to the country sitting across the table and what industry/region/financial supporters/pals do I want to protect by demanding a high tariff be imposed on any imports.
Trade deals are just like any deal. After Brexit “with a withdrawal deal” Britain will sit down opposite a group of 27 countrys to negotiate.
If there is a NO DEAL those 27 countries sitting opposite (if they actually come to the table) will be very upset, with their political leaders angry, their Industry’s damaged, their economy weakened and they will blame Britain and Hulk Johnson. The damage will be done. Why would they actually want to do a trade deal quickly after that?

gfplux

Dee_Best wrote: »

No, the reason that we're in this situation is because TM capitulated and immediately allowed the EU to "negotiate" withdrawal before negotiating trade when both should (in a sensible scenario) have taken place simultaneously.
Even you surely have to agree that paying your bill before knowing what you're going to get is unusual to say the least?

The bill as you call it was Britain agreeing to pay for what Britain had already agreed to spend.

gfplux

Dee_Best wrote: »

We've neither of us committed to any future relationship though, have we.

The non binding Political Declaration details how the future relationship will work out.

From the Gov.uk site October 19th 2019 the new (modified) deal and Ireland including the new Political declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. It also shows that the protection for workers rights have moved from the legally binding withdrawal agreement to the NON legally binding Political Declaration. Shame on you Boris Johnson.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-withdrawal-agreement-and-political-declaration?utm_source=0ca9df6b-122f-48c1-a92b-dcc1f82e2c6f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

gfplux

Good news.....for Germany

Tesla chooses Berlin

Meanwhile, the BBC reports that Elon Musk has said Berlin will be the site of Tesla’s first European factory. “Everyone knows that German engineering is outstanding and that's part of the reason we are locating our Gigafactory Europe in Germany,” Musk reportedly told an audience at an awards ceremony on Tuesday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50400068

Triple_Zero

gfplux wrote: »

The bill as you call it was Britain agreeing to pay for what Britain had already agreed to spend.

Since according to the EU this bill was in the largest part for commitments made under the EU budget running until 2020 and since the UK has continued paying these past years that must surely mean that the remaining bill will be negligible if, as planned, the UK will remain a member until early 2020?
What about the UK's share of EU assets (widely recognized & agreed) built up since joining, can anyone tell us when these will be discussed and agreement reached since it does look like the EU will owe quite a sum back to the UK?

kingstreet

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

Given that we are already so closely aligned with the EU, there is little reason why any deal could not be completed in a year. If it doesn’t happen, the most likely cause would be EU intransigence...

... or more likely, a UK desire for divergence.