Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Ballard

phillw wrote: »

Sure about that?

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082516/understanding-amazons-capital-structure-amzn.asp

I couldn’t be bothered to look into it earlier but they have issued at least one bond. The isin USU02320AD80 is issued by Amazon.com.

It’s really not important though. I made a point and it was disbelieved by a few posters, one of whom seems to have had a mini obsession about it but it really is no big deal.

Spy_Key

With the 0.3pc expansion reported on Monday, Britain has now had 13 quarters of economic growth since the Brexit referendum. The evidence is irrefutable: the UK economy has grown faster than Germany, France and the eurozone as a whole for most of the last two years. It is has outgrown several west European states even since the vote.

Totting up the exact numbers, it is no longer excusable for the Remainer establishment, the Liberal Democrats, and allied think tanks, to keep claiming that the UK economy is 3pc smaller than it would have been without Brexit, or that we are “3pc poorer” in Westminster parlance.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/11/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-hong-kong/

mayonnaise

Spy_Key wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/11/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-hong-kong/

With the 0.3pc expansion reported on Monday, Britain has now had 13 quarters of economic growth since the Brexit referendum.

Fake news.

Q2 2019 -0.2%
Or did the Telegraph journo include 'negative growth', if so, then his statement is correct. :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

I couldn’t be bothered to look into it earlier but they have issued at least one bond. The isin USU02320AD80 is issued by Amazon.com.

It’s really not important though. I made a point and it was disbelieved by a few posters, one of whom seems to have had a mini obsession about it but it really is no big deal.

Raising money via the markets isn't bank borrowing though. US global companies have structured their debt to minimise tax liabilities. Cheaper to borrow from home markets than repatriate cash back from overseas and suffer a tax charge. Though Trump's corporation tax changes have influenced a change in thinking.

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Raising money via the markets isn't bank borrowing though. US global companies have structured their debt to minimise tax liabilities. Cheaper to borrow from home markets than repatriate cash back from overseas and suffer a tax charge. Though Trump's corporation tax changes have influenced a change in thinking.

The point was made that Amazon do not borrow. This has been proved to be incorrect. Furthermore, banks buy and sell bonds for their own book so banks and other institutions will dump bonds if an issue no longer meets their criteria (such as country limits). If this were to happen on any scale then the price of that bond will fall.

Spy_Key

mayonnaise wrote: »

Fake news.

Q2 2019 -0.2%
Or did the Telegraph journo include 'negative growth', if so, then his statement is correct. :rotfl:

Are you not very good with arithmetic or not very good at comprehension?
Since the referendum date there have been fourteen quarters of GDP growth reported, the first after the referendum being published July 27th 2016. So the linked report is right because it does in fact mean thirteen quarters have been of growth.

I think that makes yours the "fake news".

sevenhills

Spy_Key wrote: »

Totting up the exact numbers, it is no longer excusable for the Remainer establishment, the Liberal Democrats, and allied think tanks, to keep claiming that the UK economy is 3pc smaller than it would have been without Brexit, or that we are “3pc poorer” in Westminster parlance.

How does our growth since 2016 compare to our average or forcasted growth?

Moe_The_Bartender

sevenhills wrote: »

How does our growth since 2016 compare to our average or forcasted growth?

Depends whose forecast you listen to. If it was George Osborne's or the BoE's, it’s been truly spectacular.

CKhalvashi

Honey_Badger wrote: »

So your forecast is that Labour won’t lose a single seat to the Brexit Party? Even in constituencies where they voted 70% leave?

Why would they?

In a lot of cases, Labour leavers don't have Brexit as their main priority and feel it needs to be done properly.

Pushing it through because it's possible to do so won't achieve this.

IMO doing it in this way is stupid, I'd have gone for Norway Plus initially and moved backwards if it had to be done, whereas going in effectively the opposite direction is risking the economy.

I still believe the best deal is still to Remain though, and having been previously willing to compromise before being fed with abuse, I will now not be changing my stance or compromising on this at all.

scaredofdebt

mayonnaise wrote: »

After Farage's capitulation today, I have to revise my forecast:

Con 300
Lab 250
Lib Dem 40
Brexit 0
SNP 40
Other 20

About right I think , SNP will do better though and BXP will get a seat or two.


Another Hung parliament, Con Dem or Lab Dem SNP?


If Swinson goes in with the Tories, that'll be interesting.


But this is a very tough one to predict, it will come down to how important Brexit is on a constituency level.