Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

I’m not part of the government so can’t answer but you would presumably be given the chance to sell for cash before the day just as you would for a standard takeover.

Remember Black Friday? Wait for the foreign investors to start dumping UK stocks en masse. Likewise pension funds, including those that cover public sector employees. No one is going to want to hold a UK IOU .

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Remember Black Friday? Wait for the foreign investors to start dumping UK stocks en masse. Likewise pension funds, including those that cover public sector employees. No one is going to want to hold a UK IOU .

Do you think that a Labour government is likely to nationalise all U.K. stocks then? I can’t see it myself.

A lot of people have been calling for us to leave the EU without a deal and not pay the £30 odd billion bill that we have agreed to. How do you think that would look to international investors? Do you think that our standing would increase, decrease or stay the same?

It’s all academic anyway as the chances of Labour getting in under Corbyn are negligible.

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

Do you think that a Labour government is likely to nationalise all U.K. stocks then? I can’t see it myself.

Sufficiently to be of concern. Allied to the other broader policies proposed. The UK is no longer going to be business friendly.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Sufficiently to be of concern. Allied to the other broader policies proposed. The UK is no longer going to be business friendly.

It's a sad state when the alternative is business friendly at the expense of people. In that case I'd have to choose losing being business friendly.

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Sufficiently to be of concern. Allied to the other broader policies proposed. The UK is no longer going to be business friendly.

But reneging on the agreement to pay what we’ve agreed that we owe the EU would have no significant effect?

sevenhills

Ballard wrote: »

It’s all academic anyway as the chances of Labour getting in under Corbyn are negligible.

My National Grid shares are still 8% higher, so investers dont think Corbyn will get in. I am hoping a Tory Government will mean certainty and an increase in the share price.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

It's a sad state when the alternative is business friendly at the expense of people. In that case I'd have to choose losing being business friendly.

People need jobs in order to earn a living. Governments need tax revenues to provide public services and benefits. Large corporations , as Honda have shown, have little regard for social issues. When business comes first. Plenty of countries across Europe, in particular Eastern, will welcome companies looking to relocate.

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

But reneging on the agreement to pay what we’ve agreed that we owe the EU would have no significant effect?

What's the connection to "business" ?

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

My National Grid shares are still 8% higher, so investers dont think Corbyn will get in. I am hoping a Tory Government will mean certainty and an increase in the share price.

Be interesting to see what they did with the overseas parts of the business. Then there's the issue if Scotland devolves.

Ballard

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What's the connection to "business" ?

I assume that we all agree that all businesses borrow money to function. The way that banks work is that every potential borrower is examined and given various country codes depending on where they are based and where they do the majority of their business etc.

All banks will have various risk appetites as part of their strategy. They would have a limit on how much they are prepared to lend for oil companies, real estate, shipping etc. They will also have a line for each country. This means that companies categorised as GB will get better rates and larger lines than those in ZW.

If a country agrees to pay another a large sum and subsequently doesn’t then this is highly likely to impact its credit rating. This in turn would automatically reduce the risk appetite of overseas institutions for the U.K.

This mightn’t be a massive change but it would happen. If an overseas bank is currently ‘full up’ on its GB exposure then it would have no choice but to pull lines if GB is downgraded. This isn’t worst case scenario or theory. This is what the rating system is for.