Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

GDP isn't wealth. Politico's love to bandy the figures around. Means little though. Ownership of the assets is what counts.

Of course; the thing that counts is something that’s a vague measure and thus not particularly useful when trying to compare the effects of Brexit. Convenient that.

I suppose you could always look at the reasons for the projected lower GDP than would otherwise be expected rather than worrying that GDP isn’t your preferred measure of bad things.

Sailtheworld

movilogo wrote: »

The king maker in next election could be either LibDem or Brexit party - depending on how much Remain and Leave votes they attract.

Hard to see Brexit Party being kingmaker when they’ll have between 0 and 2 seats. Have you been reading the Telegraph again?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

GDP isn't wealth. Politico's love to bandy the figures around. Means little though. Ownership of the assets is what counts.

Presumably buying power is what counts? Someone having £1m in housing equity doesn't really mean anything if they can't do much with it.


GDP seems like a reasonable indication of how the economy is performing though, even if it doesn't apply to what mr everyman can spend on groceries.

kingstreet

Malthusian wrote: »

The idea that Remain Tories hate Leaving so much that they'll put Corbyn in power is a fantasy.

39% of the 2015 election Conservative vote was remainers. That's 4.4m people.

I suspect a large slice will be ABC 'Anyone but Conservative' and there are two here, as I've mentioned previously.

We'll vote for whoever stands the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate and in Stafford that will be Labour. We voted Labour in 2017 but Lefroy was re-elected but he isn't standing this time. In The Euros our Green vote prevented a further Brexit party MEP being elected where that wouldn't have worked if we'd voted Lib Dem.

For the average voter, a Labour Government is not half as scary as some of the stuff we've seen from the Conservatives in recent years.

Thrugelmir

kingstreet wrote: »

For the average voter, a Labour Government is not half as scary as some of the stuff we've seen from the Conservatives in recent years.

Corbyn is going to have to get his backside off the fence. Unless it intends to remain the party of indecision.

Malthusian

Herzlos wrote: »

Presumably buying power is what counts? Someone having £1m in housing equity doesn't really mean anything if they can't do much with it.

Being able to live in a £1 million house rent-free isn't "being able to do much with it". Finger on the pulse of the common man as always, Herzy.

kingstreet wrote: »

39% of the 2015 election Conservative vote was remainers. That's 4.4m people.

Which would be terrific for Labour if 100% of the 2015 Labour vote were leavers. Unfortunately, they weren't, and Labour have an even bigger problem than the Tories due to their younger voting base.

I suspect a large slice will be ABC 'Anyone but Conservative' and there are two here, as I've mentioned previously.

We'll vote for whoever stands the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate and in Stafford that will be Labour.

So you're going to vote for Labour to take us out of the EU instead of the Tories.

Indidividuals are perfectly entitled to make confused voting decisions, that's what makes democracy fun. The idea that there is enough confusion to lead to Remain Tories voting for Corbyn to take us out of the EU is a fantasy.

For the average voter, a Labour Government is not half as scary as some of the stuff we've seen from the Conservatives in recent years.

The average voter wasn't alive the last time a non-Blairite Labour Government was in power, so that's understandable. Unfortunately for the average voter, people who were alive back then tend to vote a lot more often.

lisyloo wrote: »

I can only definitely speak for 2 (being a married couple of the same opinion) but I can categorically say you are wrong.

Unless you are a secret married cabal that rigs the UK elections, no I'm not. I said my prediction was that Remainer Tories wouldn't put Corbyn in power, not that he'd get zero votes from them.

This is not just personal, there is a 6 figure number of contractors (plus their spouses) who are now much less likely to vote Tory.

See, this is why Remain and Labour keep losing elections. Assigning themselves a group identity, and then saying "Well everyone in this group is just like me so therefore they'll all vote the same way I do".

A self-employed blue contractor is just as likely to vote Tory to get Brexit done and end the uncertainty that has been restraining investment and damaging their business. Labour has never been known for their benevolent attitude towards independent business owners.

MaxiRobriguez

Depends on three things:

1) Collaboration between Lib Dems/Labour/Green/SNP across all Tory marginal seats so that the non-Tory vote isn't split.
2) Farage fields Brexit Corporation candidates in every seat, rather than just Labour leave seats.
3) Labour's ability to turn the discussion away from Brexit even slightly.

If those things happen, then I think we get a hung parliament, and I wouldn't want to call the biggest party.

If one or two of those things don't happen, the Tories will likely win a majority.

fewgroats

Malthusian wrote: »

Something like
Con 340
Lab 220
SNP 40
Lib 30
Brexit 0

No party will have more than 300 seats after the election, not with the Brexit problems. My prediction is:

Lab 275
Con 230
SNP 35
Lib 35
Brexit 0

Keep telling yourself Corbyn can't win though. Why bother hustling? Put your feet up, open a bottle of wine...

Malthusian

Do I have an evil twin? That was epinjy's prediction.

Lab 275
Con 230
SNP 35
Lib 35
Brexit 0

Who do you think are going to get the other 75? Monster Raving Loonies?

mayonnaise

Malthusian wrote: »

Do I have an evil twin? That was epinjy's prediction.


Who do you think are going to get the other 75? Monster Raving Loonies?

DUP, SF, PC, Green, Independent...
But yeah...75 is a bit much to be spread among these.