Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Herzlos

Conina wrote: »

Rubbish and yes I dealt with import/export paperwork on a regular basis; it's only a nightmare if a) you aren't used to doing it. or b) if you don't have the intelligence to follow simple instructions. I guess from your reply that we know which category you fall into.

I'm assuming based on that, that you don't have any experience, which is fine.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/customs-procedures-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-without-a-deal
Looks like a piece of cake doesn't it?


How much do you think it'll cost businesses to have to deal with customs overheads to/from the EU?

Thrugelmir

Conina wrote: »

"Increases" you say, and if you take those with the rising point at which income tax is deducted they don't together make some of the poorest better off?

I get your point but the reality is that the ridiculous sum invented by the IFS is just that, ridiculous because it;'s money that has never actually existed. That's why Moby can't explain why he's (not) worse off.

Personally I have experienced six years of below inflation (CPI) pay rises. Not complaining I should add. As we are comfortably off and have accumulated adequate pension provision. For those at the start of their working lives a very different situation.

Difficult to see wages increasing with labour now globalised. I was in Albania last week. Italian companies operate 35 call centres employing 35,000 people out of Tirana. Average monthly wage is around €450 in the call centres. Profit comes first.

Conina

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm assuming based on that, that you don't have any experience, which is fine.

Again you're wrong (don't you ever tire of getting it wrong?) and if your memory was up to much you'd maybe remember a post from a few days ago where you can see me discussing trading with the USA and elsewhere.
Your link is very nice but pointless for those of us that already have trade dealings beyond the EU and BTW that is already more than deal with the EU.

Herzlos

Conina wrote: »

Again you're wrong (don't you ever tire of getting it wrong?)

If I'm ever wrong I'll let you know

and if your memory was up to much you'd maybe remember a post from a few days ago where you can see me discussing trading with the USA and elsewhere.
Your link is very nice but pointless for those of us that already have trade dealings beyond the EU and BTW that is already more than deal with the EU.

No I remember; I asked you for clarification on something and you never replied.
I'm well aware that's the standard for non-EU trade, but you must admit it's a lot more onerous than the EU trade is currently?


So again, how much do you think leaving the customs union should be costing UK businesses?

Sailtheworld

buglawton wrote: »

So we're back at square one again after 3.5 years? The EU can dictate any deal it likes to the UK, including legal and economic annexation of part of it. Because a vocal portion of the British public is scared rigid of the unpredictable future?

Some more time wouldn't hurt because a good part of that 3.5 years was spent on two Tory leadership elections, a general election and negotiating a deal with the DUP. David Davis turned up to the first day of negotiations just a week after a poor result in the 2017 GE armed with only a bemused look on his face. We're on the third or fourth brexit secretary now?

You lot need to stop being angry because it's making you irrational. Nobody is scared rigid of an unpredictable future. There are some risks which, for the sake of a few months, could be reduced substantially by either reaching an agreement or being better prepared for no deal (which would actually improve our negotiating position).

It's not a war. We're not being occupied. Try to relax.

Thrugelmir

Sailtheworld wrote: »

There are some risks which, for the sake of a few months, could be reduced substantially by either reaching an agreement or being better prepared for no deal (which would actually improve our negotiating position).

A deal appears somewhat unlikely. Eire has it's own interests to protect . Along with the increasing possibility of unification.

Sailtheworld

Conina wrote: »

Rubbish and yes I dealt with import/export paperwork on a regular basis; it's only a nightmare if a) you aren't used to doing it. or b) if you don't have the intelligence to follow simple instructions. I guess from your reply that we know which category you fall into.

Yes, we have office juniors who shuffle import/ export paperwork too. Probably more senior people (those issuing simple instructions to you) were ensuring that the contents of the paperwork were a true representation of what was happening in the supply chain in terms of raw materials and processses.

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir wrote: »

A deal appears somewhat unlikely. Eire has it's own interests to protect . Along with the increasing possibility of unification.

Maybe but no-deal isn't in the best interests of anyone (least of all Ireland) so hopefully work continues in the background whilst the sniping continues in the foreground.

Even if we left without a deal a delay would allow better preparedness and a reduction in the reasonable worse case scenarios. Any business dealing with third countries understands what's coming. I'm convinced that those who currently only trade with Europe aren't prepared and are just crossing their fingers a deal is reached.

A massive waste of money getting ready for a no-deal brexit just to help Johnson's negotiating position.

Conina

Herzlos wrote: »

If I'm ever wrong I'll let you know

You don't need to ta, it's plain for all to see.

Herzlos wrote: »

No I remember; I asked you for clarification on something and you never replied.

It looks like you're wrong again unless you show me where, & I just checked too.

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm well aware that's the standard for non-EU trade, but you must admit it's a lot more onerous than the EU trade is currently?

No it's not "a lot more onerous", it is different. There are positive and negatives - no EC type approvals being among the positives when dealing extra-EU for example.

Herzlos wrote: »

So again, how much do you think leaving the customs union should be costing UK businesses?

Personally and as is usually the case with any expense it won't in reality cost anything, as well you will surely know if you are indeed in any position to understand how a business works but if you really need a grasp on how to balance the books in business might I suggest a dedicated thread in the appropriate place.

Herzlos

Sorry, you're trying to say that increasing work done won't increase costs? Do you have staff idle to absorb the extra work?


Realistically, any additional work will result in more staff hours and more £ spent. For simple import/export it may be a couple of minutes a shipment once they are familiar with it, but for complex stuff it could get fairly involved. You've then got different issues with say, a UK based boutique manufacturer who buys raw materials from the EU and ships a handful of products to the EU a week, and someone like Nissan who have a hugely complex supply chain management system.


Also the EC type approvals is an interesting thing - that implies you think it'd be worth producing 2 sets of widgets, some of the EU market and some for RoW. That might make sense if the cost of EC type approval was significant, but then you'd need to handle 2 product codes and 2 lots of inventory. You'd also likely need an additional production line or some duplexing to allow you to make 2 different things in different ways.


What's most likely is that companies will continue to build for the higher standard for whatever market's they ship into, which means we'll be making almost everything to be EU compliant anyway.