Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Tromking

phillw wrote: »

Well the idea would be to have a 2nd referendum that asks for the people to provide an absolutely definitive way forward. If you don't ask the people then you can't move forward at all.

Also the brexit party believe that the EU will negotiate further, I kinda think Farage may have burnt his bridges there somewhat but you never know.

No deal is the default. I’m not sure there’s the numbers to legislate for a 2nd referendum. Plenty of Northern Labour MP’s won’t support it and it would take a brave rebel Tory MP to vote for it also.

SpiderLegs

phillw wrote: »

If Parliament votes against leaving without a deal then the Tory candidate can huff and puff as much as they want.

Nothing about the EU election has given a mandate to leave without a deal, no matter what lies the WTO supporters spin.



Parliament would need to pass legislation, the Tory leader is free to vote against it if they want.

As ever, Parliament is sovereign. The loss of support in the last General Election removed Conservatives majority purely to make it difficult for the conservatives to pass their unique vision of brexit (or possibly even any brexit at all). They can keep stringing it out, but I don't particularly see a way forward other than a 2nd referendum.

With the three groups of people that can't compromise with each other, there isn't a majority for anything.

I don’t think you understand.

The govt control the order paper. So if you want to stop no deal or have another referendum it requires legislation. The issue is how that happens if the next Tory PM is elected on a no-deal ticket.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-prime-minister-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0

phillw

Tromking wrote: »

No deal is the default.

There isn't support in Parliament for it.

Labour have said they would try to force a General election or 2nd referendum.

Conservatives could whip for no deal, I don't think they'll want the responsibility when it inevitably is a disaster. They'll never get elected again, the leave voters won't remember that it was them that caused it. They'll blame the conservatives.

A no confidence vote in the government could allow parliament to take control of the house.

SpiderLegs wrote: »

I don’t think you understand.

The govt control the order paper.

Maybe I don't, but I don't see why parliament can't pass an amendment that takes control away from government as they did in March.

Prism

phillw wrote: »

Parliament can pass an amendment that takes control away from government as they did in March.

An amendment to what?

Moe_The_Bartender

phillw wrote: »

There isn't support in Parliament for it.

It's not just up to the UK Parliament. The EU might take it out of their hands.

phillw

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

It's not just up to the UK Parliament. The EU might take it out of their hands.

Anything is possible at the moment. All that has changed from the EU parliament votes is more people are looking forward to WTO terms (without understanding it) and more people are looking forward to a 2nd referendum (without knowing what the result will be).

Prism wrote: »

An amendment to what?

If there is going to be no business in parliament between now and October then I would expect a no confidence vote to succeed.

Herzlos

What's the path to a no deal brexit then?

The only way i see is for a no-deal PM to upset the EU enough for them to stop negotiating with us and let it time out. We'd get destroyed in any follow on negotiations though, as I honestly think they've been being sympathetic to us so far.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

What's the path to a no deal brexit then?

The only way i see is for a no-deal PM to upset the EU enough for them to stop negotiating with us and let it time out. We'd get destroyed in any follow on negotiations though, as I honestly think they've been being sympathetic to us so far.

The EU say they aren't negotiating any further, they have the withdrawal deal on the table and that is it. Although anything is possible, but none of the Tory candidates look like they have a clue how to get out of this mess.

I'm not sure the DUP will continue supplying confidence to the conservatives.

SpiderLegs

Herzlos wrote: »

What's the path to a no deal brexit then?

The only way i see is for a no-deal PM to upset the EU enough for them to stop negotiating with us and let it time out. We'd get destroyed in any follow on negotiations though, as I honestly think they've been being sympathetic to us so far.

The path to no deal is just to let time run out. Do nothing. If you read the link you’d understand the path.
There is no current negotiation with the eu as they have said it isn’t possible. As is their right.

Prism

phillw wrote: »

If there is going to be no business in parliament between now and October then I would expect a no confidence vote to succeed.

I do too but then a general election would likely create such a mess that I have no idea what would happen after that. It would be tactically very interesting i reckon