Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Filo25

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Well the scale of the conservative collapse has basically forced their new leader to accept a 31st October exit date come what may.

The scale of the labour collapse will force them to have an actual policy.

Those two are pretty much given now. I think labour are going to find it just as tough to sort their internal issues as the tories will.

I am biased but the other thing I think this result does is kill off the second referendum. Maybe labour would fall in behind it but the new govt will simply not allow it. I’m sure some will disagree but if parliament acts to force one then the only option for the tories is a GE. I also think it would be a mistake for labour anyway, since a forced GE where they campaign on that platform is pointless.

The next Tory leader will undoubtedly back "No Deal" in public, the problem remains how do they deliver it, there is no majority for it in Parliament and there is no majority for it in the country (although there is a majority for it amongst likely Tory voters).

Labour will almost certainly move to full support for a second ref now, they don't really have much choice, if they don't the Remain parties will eat them alive.

For No Dealers their best hope is Labour stays in its current no mans land, the Tories consolidate the Brexit vote under a new leader and call a snap election while the Remain supporting vote is split, hell of a gamble though.

Filo25

movilogo wrote: »

Doesn't need to be 50%. Just need to be more than remain

Which it isn't based on the EU elections, the "No Deal" supporters got a lower % of the vote than unambiguously Remain parties (albeit neither got over 50%)

Herzlos

Filo25 wrote: »

Not remotely 50% though, is it?

If you filter out Labour and Conservative who don't have a stance, it's comes out as almost 51.9% of the vote. Cool. It'll be fun watching people claim that one 52% majority is irrelevant whilst arguing that another is a clear mandate.


Edit: I thought pro-Brexit parties got 37% of the vote, it's 34.9% Vs 40.4% anti-Brexit. So it's actually a 53.65% majority if you leave Con/Labour out, which I think you need to since they are so divided/vague/ineffective. Of course we wouldn't need to keep holding this proxy referendum crap if we just had a referendum.

SpiderLegs

Filo25 wrote: »

The next Tory leader will undoubtedly back "No Deal" in public, the problem remains how do they deliver it, there is no majority for it in Parliament and there is no majority for it in the country (although there is a majority for it amongst likely Tory voters).

Very difficult for this parliament to stop it tbh.

Labour will almost certainly move to full support for a second ref now, they don't really have much choice, if they don't the Remain parties will eat them alive.

When you have party A who says it will leave come what may.
And party B who says it will revoke.
Who is going to be left to support party C that says it will let people decide *again* between leave and revoke?

For No Dealers their best hope is Labour stays in its current no mans land, the Tories consolidate the Brexit vote under a new leader and call a snap election while the Remain supporting vote is split, hell of a gamble though.

I agree.
The issue for the tories is that if they don’t take a gamble pretty quickly they are not going to have a party left. My guess is they would rather risk losing an election but at least keep their core supporters.

Maybe the gamble is much more about where labour voters go.
I can guarantee you that three local labour MPs by me will lose to the tories if the former move to remain/2nd ref and the latter promise to leave come what may. I can also guarantee that labour and Tory HQs know that too.

The gamble is how many seats are like that and how many are the other way round. Maybe a new charismatic leader can tip the balance :rotfl:

Anyway I’d like to think the penny will drop fairly soon with tories labour and the eu, as none of them want no deal. Recent history suggests it’s unlikely though.

phillw

BikingBud wrote: »

Have you tried re-reading that? You've already had at least on go at editing and it still doesn't make sense. Your contradictions are coming within the same posts now.

Sorry if it's too complicated for you. If there is anything specific you think is contradictory then please ask and I'll explain.

Herzlos wrote: »

Edit: I thought pro-Brexit parties got 37% of the vote, it's 34.9% Vs 40.4% anti-Brexit.

The SNP generally aren't being included because some people voted for them despite voting to leave. It's only really safe to go with lib dem, green & change uk. Despite what ann widicome is claiming, I don't think there are enough lib dem or green leave voters to make a difference (if there are any at all).

We obviously can't know, but then you can't know that the ~10% of the electorate that voted for brexit party have any idea what WTO terms means.

phillw

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Well the scale of the conservative collapse has basically forced their new leader to accept a 31st October exit date come what may.

As parliament has repeatedly proved, it's not up to the leader of the party.

SpiderLegs wrote: »

I am biased but the other thing I think this result does is kill off the second referendum.

You think that because you're biased. It probably has increased the chance (but then the chance was ~0% before).

movilogo wrote: »

EU election result proves there is strong public support for No Deal Brexit.

Around 10% of the registered electorate isn't strong.

BikingBud wrote: »

I should not be persecuted for my sexuality, preferences, religious or political beliefs yet you continually and aggressively throw derogatory comments and names because you have a different opinion.

When your political belief is itself one of persecution, then you get what you deserve.

BikingBud wrote: »

So why are you so vociferous in calling all those that may have voted for a change xenophobes and racists?

Only people who exhibit xenophobic behavior and are unapologetic about it & instead of self reflection they go into denial and feign outrage and call to political correctness. If you were honest then we could have had a reasonable debate, I believe the reason people aren't honest is to shut down debate.

BikingBud wrote: »

So your public displays of hate towards Brexit voters are supporting the rights to free speech and freedom of thought by demonstrating tolerance to all are they?

I don't hate brexit voters, I hate it when xenophobics hide behind political correctness. You're right, I won't tollerate that. I have as much freedom of speech to show my dissatisfaction with you as you do with foreigners. The difference is that I am doing it because something you have done, while you are doing it because of something they are.

BikingBud wrote: »

Your opinion is that we will be worse off but you continue to demonise those that may have a different opinion.

I feel sorry for the people who voted to leave because they were conned into thinking they would be better off, it's only the xenophobics that deserve the ridicule they are getting. I get that it must be hard to understand why people dislike what you stand for, because in your own mind it all makes sense.

SpiderLegs

phillw wrote: »

As parliament has repeatedly proved, it's not up to the leader of the party.

Which Tory candidate is going to get elected on a platform of extend or revoke?

You think that because you're biased. It probably has increased the chance (but then the chance was ~0% before).

Explain to me what the path to a second referendum now looks like.

phillw

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Which Tory candidate is going to get elected on a platform of extend or revoke?

If Parliament votes against leaving without a deal then the Tory candidate can huff and puff as much as they want.

Nothing about the EU election has given a mandate to leave without a deal, no matter what lies the WTO supporters spin.

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Explain to me what the path to a second referendum now looks like.

Parliament would need to pass legislation, the Tory leader is free to vote against it if they want.

As ever, Parliament is sovereign. The loss of support in the last General Election removed Conservatives majority purely to make it difficult for the conservatives to pass their unique vision of brexit (or possibly even any brexit at all). They can keep stringing it out, but I don't particularly see a way forward other than a 2nd referendum.

With the three groups of people that can't compromise with each other, there isn't a majority for anything.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

They can keep stringing it out, but I don't particularly see a way forward other than a 2nd referendum.

If the vote is to leave. Doesn't address the issue of the Withdrawl Bill. The the EU has made it's offer. There's no further negotiation.

We are then no further forward.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If the vote is to leave. Doesn't address the issue of the Withdrawl Bill. The the EU has made it's offer. There's no further negotiation.

We are then no further forward.

Well the idea would be to have a 2nd referendum that asks for the people to provide an absolutely definitive way forward. If you don't ask the people then you can't move forward at all. You're expecting MPs to blink first and get hood winked into voting for something damaging, I don't see that happening.

Also the brexit party believe that the EU will negotiate further, I kinda think Farage may have burnt his bridges there somewhat but you never know. He will have to get over his relatively low number of votes, he can hype it all he wants but nobody appears to be buying it (other than those who want it to be true).