Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

phillw

LHW99 wrote: »

I would like all the parties standing to be clear on their policies for Brexit. We know what the Brexit party, UKIP and the LibDems stand for. It would be nice to have clarity on exactly what "vision" Labour / Conservatives actually are asking us to vote for.

If the EU elections happen then it's all tactical. Leave vote split between UKIP, Brexit party, Conservatives, remain voters basically have Labour.

There is no point in visions as unless brexit is cancelled then MEPs aren't going to be sitting long, if they even take their seats.

Treat it like a second referendum, turn out should be huge.

Dippypud

movilogo wrote: »

Shoppers ignore Brexit chaos as UK retail sales show surprise jump

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/18/shoppers-ignore-brexit-chaos-as-uk-retail-sales-show-surprise-jump-ons

Stocking up ?

SpiderLegs

phillw wrote: »

I don't think anyone really wants a second referendum, half the country want to leave and the other half wants brexit cancelled. As both sides hate the idea of a second referendum equally then it would be a reasonable compromise.

Fair enough. Can we say the same about May’s ‘deal’ ?

Malthusian

phillw wrote: »

The annoying thing is that EU elections use PR, so the brexit party elite will get their grubby little mitts all over our money.

I thought it was the EU's money the moment it left the UK's shores.

Otherwise all that EU money being used to keep the benighted souls of Cornwall and Sunderland alive is also our own money, as is the rebate, and that way lies madness.

phillw wrote: »

I don't think anyone really wants a second referendum, half the country want to leave and the other half wants brexit cancelled. As both sides hate the idea of a second referendum equally then it would be a reasonable compromise.

That's not a compromise. An example of a compromise, given that it's impossible to half-leave, would be to break up the UK and let the newly independent Wales, Scotland, London, Republic of Exmoor etc join or not join as they preferred. That way most people would get what they wanted.

A second referendum is merely an expensive way of doing nothing as after the referendum you would still have half the country wanting to leave and the other half wanting Brexit cancelled.

LHW99 wrote: »

I would like all the parties standing to be clear on their policies for Brexit. We know what the Brexit party, UKIP and the LibDems stand for. It would be nice to have clarity on exactly what "vision" Labour / Conservatives actually are asking us to vote for.

Both want to Leave. That was made perfectly clear during the 2017 election.

If you're asking "but do they want Norway, Canada, customs union, nuke Paris, etc", neither have a clue. That has also been perfectly clear during and since the 2017 election. Labour call this policy stance "constructive ambiguity". The Tories call this "BUT MUMMY I DON'T WANNA".

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

If the EU elections happen then it's all tactical. Leave vote split between UKIP, Brexit party, Conservatives, remain voters basically have Labour.

I'd expect ChangeUK to wheedle some further vote away from Labour.

Herzlos

phillw wrote: »

Only 27% are outraged by the fraud coming out of the investigations into leave.eu?

The annoying thing is that EU elections use PR, so the brexit party elite will get their grubby little mitts all over our money.

Are you saying the MEP elections are too democratic? Sure, it's a waste of time and money to send anti-EU MEPs over and have them not turn up, but if it closer represents the will of the people, then it's up to the people.

LHW99

I'd expect ChangeUK to wheedle some further vote away from Labour.

And remain voters also have the LibDems and the Greens (and SNP in Scotland)

Thrugelmir

LHW99 wrote: »

And remain voters also have the LibDems and the Greens (and SNP in Scotland)

Difficult to take either the LibDems or Greens seriously at the current time. There's no SNP candidates proposed south of the border. Therefore has no bearing on the more interesting English vote. Which you would expect outside of the metropolitan centres to be more inclined towards Leave than Remain. The country is going to appear more divided than ever I fear.

Arklight

A Brexit-supporting troll who sent MPs death threats and racist messages has been sentenced to nearly 10 months in jail.

Jarod Kirkman, 51, sent malicious messages to seven politicians, including former Conservative cabinet minister Nicky Morgan and Labour’s David Lammy, Westminster magistrates’ court heard.

Some messages, sent through the MPs’ websites, had the subject lines “Brexit traitor” and “Brexit loser” with menacing email addresses such as MPdeadpoliticianwalking.com and Putinfsb.ru.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/18/internet-troll-jailed-over-threats-and-racist-messages-to-mps?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I'd expect ChangeUK to wheedle some further vote away from Labour.

You're right of course, I'd forgotten completely about them & await to see whether they fizzle out or not.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The country is going to appear more divided than ever I fear.

At the moment TM is making decisions based on the leave voters being more angry & it's not a problem to upset remain voters. There are two ways to balance that out, leave voters could become less angry or remain voters could become more angry. Using game theory it's the later.

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Fair enough. Can we say the same about May’s ‘deal’ ?

The first meaningful vote result was 202 vs 432 with 1 abstention. There is too much support for it to be the same. Plus TM's deal is a trap, so it's difficult to work out how many people would support it if they understood it (so in that regard it's the same as the first referendum).