Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

cogito

Jonbvn wrote: »

In general those with higher population growth are expected to rise up the ranking, and vice-versa.

Having worked in some of those countries, I do have some reservations. Can Nigeria overcome their culture of corruption and and fulfill their potential? Can Vietnam overcome their opaque governance which acts as a strong business deterrent?

Nigeria is not in Asia, I believe.

As for Vietnam, over the last 30 years, it's GDP has never increased by less than 5% per annum, it’s GDP per capita has increased by nearly 1000% and it has very low unemployment. It seems to be doing OK.

fun4everyone

London property transactions drop to a decade low..

https://www.ft.com/content/12a83bc8-209a-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

Article behind paywall but try searching the headline in google if it doesnt work (in a browser you dont usually use)

The market is massively suppressed. Everyone is concerned about what’s going to happen in the future, every buyer is extremely cautious and counting every penny

gfplux

movilogo wrote: »

Have they not given 900 employees option to relocate to EU? If they have, then nothing is preventing UK employees to move to EU (land of milk and honey).

They will then NOT be paying their taxes and social security in the U.K.
Glossing over if you wish the impact locally on Hotels and resteraunts is rather sad.

This effect of Brexit is not financially neutral.

buglawton

wunferall wrote: »

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Yeah yeah yeah.
In May 2016 we were warned of hundreds of thousands of jobs being lost immediately if we dared to vote to leave the EU.
We were told that by now unemployment would have risen by 520,000.
By our own Treasury no less.
The reality?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2019

Don't be surprised when with statistics like these your cries of woe are ridiculed.

Working more than 1 hour per week is defined as being in employment. In reality there aren't many such. But around 8% work under 20 hours. I do wonder if the stats were counted the same way in 1971.

buglawton

fun4everyone wrote: »

London property transactions drop to a decade low..

https://www.ft.com/content/12a83bc8-209a-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

Article behind paywall but try searching the headline in google if it doesnt work (in a browser you dont usually use)

Stamp duty and the cancellation of the high net worth residential visa? Plus the high end of the market was too frothy anyway.

gfplux

cogito wrote: »

Are Airbus planning to leave the UK? If so, why?

Is it because the UK is no longer in the EU? If that's the case why do they buy engines from General Electric which is in the USA or buy other components from China? As far as I know, neither of these countries is in the EU.

You can hear for yourself exactly what the boss of Airbus says on their site. It is on the rotating front screen.
https://www.airbus.com

While you are there why not read more about them.

They are not about to move but with Britain out of the EU the long term investment is likely to not be in the U.K.
Once again not financially neutral but a long term negative for Britain.

Hopefully someone will find a long term benefit of Brexit. It still eludes me.

gfplux

I am not going to argue against posters who believe (their) future is in Asia.
Growing or slowing down in those lands has little to do with Brexit even if some posters want to shoehorn it in.

What can happen is that investment and investors will put their money into safe hands. With the huge unknown that is Brexit that investment is LESS likely to be placed in the UK.
The UNCERTAINTY of Brexit already well into its third year will not be resolved in the next few months. Even if there is an orderly withdrawal the economic “benefits” of Brexit are years in the future.

buglawton

May's deal essentially means nothing changes till the EU deigns it so. It's a BINO.
So the 'real deal' still needs to be negotiated.
And we already know that the EU's 4 principles cannot be prised apart.
So a no deal exit will speed up the pain then speed up the real solution.
I'd rather see the real deal heave into view.

Arklight

The Brexiter trope that we don't need Europe because we've "got" Asia needs some unpacking.

The UK is as far from having Asia (whatever they believe Asia means) as it's possible to get. At the moment the UK stands in April to be the only EU country which doesn't have any trade agreements with Asian nations.

The idea that we're going to dance around the Orient nimbly signing agreements left right and centre while those cumbersome Europeans flail around falling over their own feet is a delusion.

In many ways Asian economies aren't especially good markets for the UK anyway. They're volatile, often quite closed for services (try opening a British insurance company in India or China), and historically Britain hasn't been successful there compared to other EU nations.

It also has to be said, that while people are generally very friendly towards tourists on an individual level, and will try and think of something nice to say about England if you tell them you are English, on a national level most Asian countries remember British involvement in their territory about as fondly as a WI matron remembers when Travellers parked on the village green and only left after they'd been thrown out by a court order.

And actually that's unfair to Travellers, as they are nothing like as toxic here as people's memories of the British empire over there.

There really isn't much love for you over there, Little Englanders.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I am not going to argue against posters who believe (their) future is in Asia.
...

It's not a belief that we have to mimic the successful parts of Asia.

It's a recognition of where the emerging threats/trends are coming from, and planning a future intercept course to leverage the new economic reality 10/20/30 years from now.

I'd suggest that without British input, Hong Kong would not have been the success story it has been.

However...the importance of HK to the Chinese economy diminishes with each passing year.

It's not just the UK which has to work out how the changing world balance will affect things like influence and even local democracy.

All I see from our political class on the Remain side is some blithe assumption that remaining in an Union will ensure everything will be just fine into the future.

I just don't see why this should be true. The EU was unable to stop the movement of mass manufacture of electronics; consumer goods; clothing to the Far East. Automobiles and aircraft production could easily follow.