Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

They don't have the guts to withdraw article 50 or have another referendum, even if they overrode berko to allow voting ad infinitum. Theresa Mays deal doesn't even resolve the issue, it's just a tiny first step.

If only we could have predicted how difficult it would be to negotiate when we had no hand.

At least it is a step forward .

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Well, if the eu want us to leave before their elections, when we could have a lot of fun, then they are going to have to offer something major to get rid.

They don't have to do anything to get rid of us by the end of the month.

At the moment we are set to leave with no deal on March 29th, chances are the eu will offer either no extension or will insist on a lengthy one, if neither happens then they will be having to put up the border in Ireland that they have been "trying" to avoid (not really something they are concerned about, they are just using it to try to stop us leaving, either that or they are trying to annexe NI OR they are trying to bluff their way through it and it is about time we called it).

Assuming we don't withdraw A50, they'll need to introduce infrastructure (as will we, but the Tories aren't being honest about it). It'll suck for all sides but it's unavoidable.

How can they say they are trying to protect the interests of the 27 when it is going to do the opposite?

Because they are protecting the interests of the 27. It just so happens they don't care about the interests of the UK who wanted to be left out. A hard Brexit, whilst disasterous in the short term, is better for the EU than the uncertainty or destroying the integrity of the single market.

lisyloo

mayonnaise wrote: »

Theresa May is writing to the EU to ask for Brexit to be postponed until 30 June with the option of a longer delay, cabinet sources say. (BBC)

They’ve made it clear they want a plan.

Tromking

phillw wrote: »

We will find out soon enough, the last three years have been interesting as the government has promised everyone that if they hold on then they'll organise a deal which means they won't need to close down and relocate.

The increase in employment is seen as a bad short term move as companies are taking on workers that they can get rid of quickly in the next few months, rather than investing in long term strategies (factories etc).

You may have humble pie to eat, depending on how this plays out.

It's much easier to be right, if you deviously predict both outcomes....

Come on Phil, how desperate is that reply.
92% of UK companies do no trade whatsoever with the EU, the very idea that the UK with a unemployment rate of 3.9% (EU avg. 6.5%) and with a near 1 million vacancies nationwide is employing people just so they can get rid in a post-Brexit hiatus is laughable.
The fact is that in the big scheme of things the UK jobs market is not as exposed half as much to a negative Brexit scenario as you think it is, or perhaps hope it is.
The accusation of project fear still stands.

Herzlos

It's all very interlinked.


I'd be willing to bet that most of those 92% of UK companies still source stuff from the EU or via the EU. Those that don't will be the most susceptible to an economic downturn.


So whilst they may not sell to the EU, they'll still be at risk if of any economic weakening that stops customers spending, or cost of trading going up to due tariffs/exchange rates / extra tax burden.

Arklight

Tromking wrote: »

Come on Phil, how desperate is that reply.
92% of UK companies do no trade whatsoever with the EU, the very idea that the UK with a unemployment rate of 3.9% (EU avg. 6.5%) and with a near 1 million vacancies nationwide is employing people just so they can get rid in a post-Brexit hiatus is laughable.
The fact is that in the big scheme of things the UK jobs market is not as exposed half as much to a negative Brexit scenario as you think it is, or perhaps hope it is.
The accusation of project fear still stands.

What a load of balls.

The Brits fiddle their definition of unemployment whereas the Europeans don't. The real unemployment rate is 4 times the UK government version of the truth. They exclude people with zero hours contracts who have zero hours. They exclude people on phony training courses, they exclude people who have given up looking for work because there isn't any. They exclude people ekeing out a living on part time work topped up with tax credits and benefits.

https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T

Why does Britain have no wage inflation, if the labour market is so tight?

The answer is that unemployment is not really that low. In reality, about 21.5% of British workers are either officially unemployed, inactive, or employed part time even though they really want full-time work.



That last chart explains a LOT about today's politics in the UK.

On paper, Britain is supposed to be doing well — growing economy, low unemployment. So why did Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party get so many votes in the latest election? (Answer: People still feel poor, their wages are not rising, and one in seven workers is out of work.) Why did a majority of voters choose Brexit? (Answer: The economy for men is basically still in recession, and men don't like losing their economic power, so this was a good way of "taking back control.") And why are so many people trapped in the "gig economy," making minimum wage? (Answer: Because the true underlying rate of unemployment means companies can still find new workers even in a time of "full employment.")

Didn't you say you were a prison officer? If so your job literally puts you on the sharp end of the consequences of the miserable conditions of millions of people, yet you think there is some economic wonderland out there?

Poverty is directly linked to incarceration, drug addiction, alcoholism, poor educational outcomes, and a raft of mental and physical health problems.

Herzlos

May has apparently just admitted the country is in crisis. Next attempt to get deal through? Is she finally starting to blink? Has this been the plan all along?

Arklight

The Erasmus scheme in chaos as students left in limbo. Some countries telling their students not to come here and pull their applications.

To pre-empt the inevitable "Camilla's gap year" comments from the usual gaggle of grey haired left school at 15 yEU must be joking brigade I will just paste this comment.

Milkpool 8h ago
Guardian Pick

93
94
The comments here about Erasmus being designed to assist poorer students really do bear repeating. As a working-class student, my Erasmus year in Berlin in 2016 was life-changing and opened many doors for me which have been instrumental in allowing me to return to the continent to live and work almost immediately after graduating. Erasmus is a brilliant tool for social mobility and skill-learning and the fact that Brexiters either don't care about that or even actively dislike it is cruel, selfish, and ignorant.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/mar/19/erasmus-scheme-chaos-uk-students-limbo-funding-accommodation#comment-127049169

BikingBud

The Sky Is Falling In

phillw

BikingBud wrote: »

The Sky Is Falling In

It seems that childrens stories and nursery rhymes are a big thing in the leave campaign https://www.express.co.uk/videos/5837046855001/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-reads-out-nursery-rhymes-mocking-the-EU

Mogg feels among friends and feels free to show his bigoted side .Prejudice and denial all around.