Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

fatbeetle

EU army?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/world/europe/germany-defense-spending-european-army.html

phillw

fatbeetle wrote: »

EU army?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/world/europe/germany-defense-spending-european-army.html

It seems the EU army is no different to the "Allies" in World War 2.

mayonnaise

Military exercise coming up in North Scotland.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/highlands/1700092/major-international-military-operation-to-focus-on-north-of-scotland/

The operation will see the UK’s Royal Navy, Army, Royal Air Force joint by numerous allies to conduct joint operations testing a range of current and future threats.

Military personnel from Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the UK and the US will all be involved in the operation.

Europhobe : "EU ARMY!!!" :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

Why does that matter? You're arguing about outcomes, not about how they were achieved.

I not arguing just stating hard facts. Simply dimissing something because it doesn't fit your agenda is short sighted. Pull a lever it has a consequence elsewhere at a later date. Free lunches are an illusion.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I not arguing just stating hard facts.

You're cherry picking to create a message that is different from mine. Sounds like an argument to me

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Simply dimissing something because it doesn't fit your agenda is short sighted.

It's good to see you finally realise this, I look forward to your view point changing. How you voted in the referendum was purely down to whether you were the type of person who simply dismisses or whether you are open to reason.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Pull a lever it has a consequence elsewhere at a later date. Free lunches are an illusion.

Somehow that message was missing from the leave campaign. Even now you're constantly arguing that obvious negative effects of leaving the EU are illusory while imagined positive effects are certain.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

I'll do two, just for the sake of it.

On the immediate economic impact of a vote to Leave. You guys make a big song and dance around the phrase 'a vote to leave' trying to imply that it meant an immediate recession starting 24/6/2016.
The Treasury analysis is clear however : HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu
As I said, we haven't left the EU.

.

Here's what your link says - shame you didn't read it first:

Part 3: The immediate impact of a vote to leave the EU
2.40 The shocks to the UK economy from a permanent deterioration in economic prospects, higher uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions would impact the UK
economy in a number of ways.
2.41 [B]The analysis examines these impacts from 2016 Q3 to 2018 Q2.[/B] The baseline against which the scenarios are presented is the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March 2016 economic forecast, which is conditioned on the UK remaining in the EU.14
2.42 The analysis in the long-term document focused on the supply-side effects of leaving the EU. The results of this document’s analysis are driven by both demand and supply impacts. Demand would be lower because uncertainty and financial conditions would impact on investment and consumption. Supply would also be negatively affected by the impact on productivity from an economy transitioning to be less open to trade and investment. Productivity would be impacted as the UK economy became less integrated in European supply chains in the long term, and in the short
term resources were reallocated due to changing trade and investment patterns.
GDP
2.43 The Bank of England and IMF have both reported the possibility of a recession following a vote to leave. As the Governor of the Bank of England said, “there’s a range of possible scenarios […] which could possibly include a technical recession”;15 and
Managing Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, noted that she shared the Bank of England’s view that a vote to leave the EU “could lead to a recession”.16
2.44 In both scenarios, a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession. Setting the shock scenario against the OBR’s Budget 2016 forecast, the analysis shows that immediately following a vote to leave the EU, the economy would be pushed into
recession with four quarters of negative growth. Two years after a vote to leave the EU, GDP would be around 3.6% lower in the shock scenario than following a vote to remain
(see Chart 2.B). This is within the range of published estimates for the short-term impact, which without exception find that UK GDP is lower following a vote to leave (see Box 3.D in the long-term document).17
2.45 In the severe shock scenario the analysis shows that the economy would fall into recession which would persist for four quarters, and GDP would be 6.0% lower in two years time compared with a vote to remain (see Chart 2.C). Table 2.C sets out the quarter-on-quarter growth rates based on the analysis for both scenarios set against the OBR’s 2016 Budget forecast.

Hope that helps.

ben501

mayonnaise wrote: »

I'll do two, just for the sake of it.

On the immediate economic impact of a vote to Leave. You guys make a big song and dance around the phrase 'a vote to leave' trying to imply that it meant an immediate recession starting 24/6/2016.
The Treasury analysis is clear however : HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu
As I said, we haven't left the EU.

I had intended to just sit on the sidelines on see who could peddle the biggest lies, but please can you stop trying to regurgitate this one. If you care to actually read the document, and not just the title,

Foreword
This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two
years that follow.

So nothing to do with the actual leaving.

Zero_Gravitas

I see the proven liar Esther McVey is thinking about changing her mind and supporting Mrs. May's deal...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616

I thought leavers had forbidden people changing their minds any more, because apparently it's not democratic... ;-)

phillw

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

I thought leavers had forbidden people changing their minds any more, because apparently it's not democratic... ;-)

Clearly not, you can change your mind if it suits you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3rX4nJ0snc
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=220353848882885

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Here's what your link says - shame you didn't read it first:

Hope that helps.

Valid point, but I'm not sure it actually proves Remain to be lying - where's the willful deceit? A future prediction is just that, a prediction and based on the information known at the time. There's a vast difference between getting a prediction wrong and peddling known lies (like the bus, or the EU army, or Turkey, or the veto, or the Euro, or they need us more than we need them, or the "easiest deal in human history"*).



However, I'm not sure it's that wrong - sure we didn't end off in 4 quarters of recession, but it's still a genuine risk and we're certainly worse off now than we would have been without the vote.



In terms of growth, we were never to far from technically entering a recession, boosted by a world cup and a heat wave. We've gone from near the top of EU7 growth to the bottom since the vote. Personal borrowing is up, real wages are down, and so on.


So yeah, we didn't go into a recession, but we're hardly doing great, eh?
I'm still not sure that counts as a lie, as I'm not convinced the report writers knew we wouldn't go into recession and threatened it anyway (maybe the did, who knows).



https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9




*I may put that one down to incompetence, rather than lying, it's possible Davis did think it'd be easy. He's an idiot though, anyone with any idea of the subject matter knew it was going to be a nightmare.