Buy now or wait till BREXIT

Crashy_Time

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Unwarranted assumption . It seems very unlikely that interest rates would rise, especially "through the roof" Much more likely they would stay as is or fall , though they can't fall much. Indeed if you think "catastrophic interest rate rises would happen who on earth would instigate such a catastrophic rise? Since it would be "catastrophic".? It wouldn't happen.

It is zero rates that are "catastrophic" not the other way around, if house prices had been allowed to correct after 2008 (no HTB, rates raised gradually to sensible levels) there would never have been a win for Leave in the Brexit vote. The economic imbalances and damage to society and politics that propping up the price of houses and other assets has caused is going to come back and bite us big style IMO, and that is why the US central bank and others know it is time to raise rates and wind down QE. Too late though IMO.

JakeHall

My partner and I are first time buyers who are exchanging next week.

My advice (for what it's worth!) is to focus on your circumstances.

1. Where are you buying? Have prices substantially increased over the last 6-7 years or have they been relatively stable?

2. How do the valuations of the properties you're looking at compare to previously sold prices?

3. Is this a short term purchase or do you intend on living there in the medium to long term?

Buying in London/south-east at a price which will set a record on the street or be not far off the record is high risk. You could well be in negative equity very quickly and find yourself stuck there for a long time.

But buying somewhere where prices have been stable and intending to live there for the medium/long term may mean it doesn't matter too much when you buy, as it the prices haven't fluctuated much either way.

Try to focus on this kind of information as it applies to your own circumstances rather than the extremes on either side of the argument.

For example, had you followed price crash advisors, particularly if this was back in 2011-2012, then you will be kicking yourself due to increases since then.

On the other hand, when we were first buying during the EU vote, we were told prices will keep rising, there's always a demand etc., but we didn't wish to take the risk and pulled out a few days after the Brexit result. Fast forward 2.5 years, properties on that same street are unsold at 5% lower than our accepted offer. Had we gone ahead we would be in around 5-10% negative equity with prices still seemingly falling.

We're now exchanging this week on a slightly larger property in a better area for a few thousand more than what we were going to buy. We're well aware that what we're buying may also fall in value, or may crash, but we're willing to take the risk as we intend on living there for the medium term and our offer is 8% less than the last two that sold on the street (and 10% less than the record price on the street).

So you may want to consider the above questions and see how they apply to your circumstances and the properties that interest you, rather than apply absolutes from people that won't know you and your circumstances.

jimbog

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/8155885/brexit-majority-first-time-buyers-waiting-house-prices-drop/

Not very classy to quote from The Sun, but from your link:
we expect annual house price growth nationally to be in the range of two per cent to four per cent by the end of 2019

Crashy_Time

jimbog wrote: »

Not very classy to quote from The Sun, but from your link:
we expect annual house price growth nationally to be in the range of two per cent to four per cent by the end of 2019

Do they expect transactions and mortgage approvals to pick up as well? Not sure how you think this headline figure based on falling transactions has any meaning or is in any way a good thing?

lisyloo

This was posted recently by me to back up a discussion about credit conditions having changed dramatically since the heyday of the property bubble.

I agree, nothing to debate, but your link clearly shows prices STILL GOING UP.

"Separate figures from the Bank of England showed that mortgage approvals for house purchases fell in November, and are now at half the level of 15 years ago."

AND? by your own link prices are STILL GOING UP.

As far as I am aware you didn`t engage with this information, or the other two or three links I posted on the same thread

I'm not on here 24/7 because I have quit a good life that I'm engaged in.

but instead used your usual posting style of stories about your own personal experiences of buying in the 1990`s. How does this help anyone buying now on the eve of Brexit?

The fundamentals of gearing, no CGT, making repayments so that you have something (very significant) to show for your payments i.e. a house you can live in for decades rent free, are STILL ALL TRUE AND RELEVANT.

Personal experience doesn`t affect the property market

I agree, gearing, CGT, making repayments to an asset class that has signicant implicit value i.e. you can live in it for decades rent free are NOTHING to do with personal experience.

making up negative names for other posters

I agree and I DID NOT DO THAT, merely explained what another poster was implying.
If you were aiming that comment at me then you should withdraw it as there is black and white evidence I did NOT MAKE UP THAT NAME.
I dont make stuff up.


I won't be engaging 24/7 as I have a nice life thank you.

Crashy_Time

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-crisis-banks-economic-social-uk-finance-theresa-may-eu-a8727901.html


There used to be a fringe website populated by "crashists" and "doom-mongers" that spouted this stuff all day, so bizarre to see the MSM now doing it, maybe it is really happening?

PhilE

Crashy_Time wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-crisis-banks-economic-social-uk-finance-theresa-may-eu-a8727901.html


There used to be a fringe website populated by "crashists" and "doom-mongers" that spouted this stuff all day, so bizarre to see the MSM now doing it, maybe it is really happening?

They used to scare people that there'd be potential food supply problems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-46814527

Crashy_Time

PhilE wrote: »

They used to scare people that there'd be potential food supply problems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-46814527

"since his company, Emergency Food Storage UK, launched the Brexit Box last month he had sold more than 600"


Not exactly full scale panic yet though?

Homersimpson

Crashy Time, you were absolutely right:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/brexit-uncertainty-is-continuing-to-kill-house-prices/ar-BBSjHhe?ocid=spartanntp

Houses dropped 0.1% in a month, give it another 20 years at this rate and they will be approaching the 25% drop you want.:beer:

lookstraightahead

Personally I wouldn't / am not going to buy right at this moment