If there is a second referendum ...

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If the 2nd is again leave. Yet the EU refuse to amend the terms of their offer. The only option is a hard Brexit. Only JC lives in a fantasy world of renegotiation as if the EU are going to bow down in front of him.

I agree, if the 2nd referendum is leave and we don't take the EU offer, or any other that they've given us, then WTO is the only option.


And I'd be fine with that.

Herzlos

andrewf75 wrote: »

I agree, I don’t think the lies of the campaign influenced anyone. The reality is the leave campaign began decades ago so with that head start its hardly surprising it won.

Each side has their own version of the truth.

Leave spent an awful lot of money on targetted facebook ads (to the undecided). You'd think they'd at least influence enough people to justify the spend. Bear in mind that almost no-one who has been influenced thinks they have been.


Since it'd have only taken a 2% swing, (~600,000 votes from ~10,000,000 ads), it's not inconcievable that it made a difference. You could then say the same about every other big lie, like the NHS bus - it'd realistically only have to influence maybe ~200,000 people for the net effect to be a Leave victory.


Especially if you prune out the protest / "I never thought Leave would win" votes.

THE_Terry_Urr

Herzlos wrote: »

For those that are opposed to a 2nd referendum, does that mean you promise to not complain about whatever deal we get as long as it satisfies "leave the EU"?

The way I see it; almost no-one is going to be happy with the outcome, Nd presumably the point of democracy is to allow a country to change it's mind if noone is going to be happy?
Since we know almost no-one will be happy; do we need to wait until we've left and it's irreversible?

1 Yes, so long as we do leave the EU. That means no ECJ jurisdiction over the UK, no .... ah look a WTO Brexit would be leaving but this supposed deal would need one heck of a lot of tweaking before I could accept that as being leaving.

2 The way you see it doesn't make it so, especially when you only see what you want to see.
For a start those that asked to leave the EU will have had their voting intent satisfied and even here in the forum as well as in media we've seen remainers say that not respecting the vote has made them dissatisfied with the so-called deal.
If democracy is respected and we do leave I have no problem with another referendum in the future asking if the UK should rejoin. Be honest though, that's cloud cuckoo land dreaming for any number of reasons as things stand. And yes the vote should be respected; we should leave. However soon after that the public decide another vote would be prudent is up to them but personally I think you're in for a long wait.
Or did you really want another referendum after the next referendum for those that don't think that one was quite right, and then one after that ad infinitum? We could have a general election every year too - no, make it twice yearly! That's democratic. Then our governments will get less done than they do now but at least they'll have an excuse.

Lungboy

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If the 2nd is again leave. Yet the EU refuse to amend the terms of their offer. The only option is a hard Brexit. Only JC lives in a fantasy world of renegotiation as if the EU are going to bow down in front of him.

It's not just Corbyn, Boris and JRM to name but two are on about renegotiating to remove the backstop.

THE_Terry_Urr

Herzlos wrote: »

Leave spent an awful lot of money on targetted facebook ads (to the undecided). You'd think they'd at least influence enough people to justify the spend. Bear in mind that almost no-one who has been influenced thinks they have been.


Since it'd have only taken a 2% swing, (~600,000 votes from ~10,000,000 ads), it's not inconcievable that it made a difference. You could then say the same about every other big lie, like the NHS bus - it'd realistically only have to influence maybe ~200,000 people for the net effect to be a Leave victory.


Especially if you prune out the protest / "I never thought Leave would win" votes.

Very nice - but it's not a patch on having a leaflet pushed through every door or the wheeling-out of presidents etc., If you want to talk about targeted ads why not consider the likes of those.
And don't for one mad moment presume that Facebook only hosted ads for leaving because that's just naive.

Thrugelmir

Lungboy wrote: »

It's not just Corbyn, Boris and JRM to name but two are on about renegotiating to remove the backstop.

I'm not just referring to the backstop.

sevenhills

Herzlos wrote: »

I agree, if the 2nd referendum is leave and we don't take the EU offer, or any other that they've given us, then WTO is the only option
And I'd be fine with that.

Someone on radio four was saying that if there is another referendum, the different options should come with a 'manifesto' of what would happen.


Trade with the EU would switch to World Trade Organization terms, raising customs checks and tariffs overnight. The UK’s ports and airports would be thrown into disarray.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

For those that are opposed to a 2nd referendum, does that mean you promise to not complain about whatever deal we get as long as it satisfies "leave the EU"?
...

The only EU spokesperson I have seen recently couldn't bring herself to accept the extension that a second referendum would require.

Why should the EU wait? They have EU elections in May which could complicate matters.

I wouldn't personally accept any new referendum with vague unachievable options.

Our politicians have embarrassed themselves big time.

Herzlos

THE_Terry_Urr wrote: »

1 Yes, so long as we do leave the EU. That means no ECJ jurisdiction over the UK, no .... ah look a WTO Brexit would be leaving but this supposed deal would need one heck of a lot of tweaking before I could accept that as being leaving.

If you want WTO Brexit, you'll need a 2nd referendum. I said no complaining for anything that can be argued is leaving the EU (Norway or Mays deal). You've perfectly illustrated my point - even within Leave there is a huge range of views and there's almost no-one that will be happy with whatever the outcome is. The only way to avoid that is by going back to the people.

If democracy is respected and we do leave I have no problem with another referendum in the future asking if the UK should rejoin.

But leaving and rejoining will automatically put us on worse terms, so why not ask before the damage is done?

Be honest though, that's cloud cuckoo land dreaming for any number of reasons as things stand.

Looking at the demographics, it's almost inevitable that we'll rejoin the EU. That might be in 5, 10 or 20 years. Statistically I think we've already crossed the point where more people want to remain and that margin will widen as older people stop voting and younger people start voting.

And yes the vote should be respected; we should leave.

However soon after that the public decide another vote would be prudent is up to them but personally I think you're in for a long wait.

I'll be stunned if there isn't a petition and campaign to rejoin within an hour of leaving.

I think the next GE will be fought on a platform of rejoining (or re-negotiating the deal such that we may as well join). I suspect that once reality hits all but the most die-hard brexiteers will want to rejoin.


I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Or did you really want another referendum after the next referendum for those that don't think that one was quite right, and then one after that ad infinitum? We could have a general election every year too - no, make it twice yearly! That's democratic. Then our governments will get less done than they do now but at least they'll have an excuse.

If the facts of the situation change, then I'm happy to have another vote. If things materially change every year regarding Brexit then I'm happy to keep voting until things settle down.


There's no denying the situation with Brexit has changed since the vote, and I at least feel things have changed sufficiently that we need to double check what to do.

Herzlos

THE_Terry_Urr wrote: »

Very nice - but it's not a patch on having a leaflet pushed through every door or the wheeling-out of presidents etc., If you want to talk about targeted ads why not consider the likes of those.
And don't for one mad moment presume that Facebook only hosted ads for leaving because that's just naive.

The leaflets weren't targetted and weren't in the same league as the leave lies.


I didn't say Facebook only hosted Leave ads, though I'm not aware of Remain ads. But Remain paid for a huge number of ads, the content of which was dubious at best.


This article goes so far as to say it's "very likely" that action swayed the result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-referendum-overspending-high-court-brexit-legal-challenge-void-oxford-professor-a8668771.html