If there is a second referendum ...

MataNui

Conditions such as >60% one way wont work. Whatever the outcome it would need to be decisive and adding a condition like that requires a default position which would be undemocratic and not helpful.




Nice to see we still have our super educated, liberal intelligent friends telling us how we are all uneducated morons. Just keep that attitude and see where it gets you.Those people who voted one way to stick two fingers up will likely do it again (and in greater numbers).


In all seriousness though i dont really think its going to matter. The damage to the reputation of parliament and democracy has already been done. Given that MPs will vote to reject this deal it seems only logical and reasonable that any future vote (and i think there will be one as i cant see any other way out of this) will ask very simply that we either remain or leave with no further discussion or negotiation. Cant see them doing that. Politicians love ambiguity. That bastion of democratic principles (not in the slightest)Vince Cable has already suggested the question should be Mays Deal or remain.


And if by some miracle those parasites in Westminster actually do give us a chance with a fair question can you actually see even the remotest chance they would action it if the result was still to leave?

wymondham

What's the point in another referendum? The Government haven't carried out the will of the people who voted in the first one..... why would another make any difference, unless the outcome is the one they were expecting? best of 3?

Thrugelmir

wymondham wrote: »

What's the point in another referendum? The Government haven't carried out the will of the people who voted in the first one..... why would another make any difference, unless the outcome is the one they were expecting? best of 3?

Ask Nicola Sturgeon for advice. Seems to be the case that the political class now wish to impose their views. Rather than actually represent the electorate. Sad times for UK democracy.

Filo25

Bookies seem to be pricing the odds of a second ref at 30-40% now, personally I think it is slightly lower than that but things are certainly going pretty badly for the government at present.

For all the fantasy on here and in certain parts of the more right wing media that a cliff edge no deal Brexit is a credible option, good luck finding anything close to a majority in parliament that fancies owning the economic consequences of that decision.

Even Bojo yesterday tried to blag it as a threat to the EU (so that they can then be blamed if we crash out with no deal) rather than saying it was in any way a desirable outcome.

Personally I would love a second ref, if no deal is on there as an option let these chancers go out there and promote it and own the consequences. It gets boring listening to them blaming Remainers and the EU for the inevitable failure to deliver the fantasies they promote, if "No Deal" is the option they want at least have the guts to stand behind it. The resulting economic slowdown would finish the ERG and UKIP for good.

I actually think the most likely scenario is that Theresa May stubbornly hangs on, blocks off other options and as the deadline approaches basically ends up eventually blackmailing Parliament into backing her Withdrawal Agreement as the only realistic option on the table.

THE_Terry_Urr

Here we go again with "cliff edge". Please give it a rest, it's really getting more than a bit silly now.

The country will not collapse if we leave without a deal - and as a bonus we'll be £39 billion PLUS better off. That should go a long way towards solving whatever minor difficulties a no deal Brexit might cause.

A question though: if the EU is really so good, WHY can't we just leave and WHY could it be problematic? We don't have such problems with anybody else we trade with so to me it looks like all the supposed problems we might have are the fault of the EU.

Switzerland take note.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

I actually think the most likely scenario is that Theresa May stubbornly hangs on, blocks off other options and as the deadline approaches basically ends up eventually blackmailing Parliament into backing her Withdrawal Agreement as the only realistic option on the table.

Rather than berate Mrs May. Let's have some alternatives. Plenty of opinions but no one seems to be asking the EU themselves. Very easy to be negative. Far harder to be constuctive with a purpose. Dragging this matter out has the potential to turn into civil unrest.

Filo25

THE_Terry_Urr wrote: »

Here we go again with "cliff edge". Please give it a rest, it's really getting more than a bit silly now.

The country will not collapse if we leave without a deal - and as a bonus we'll be £39 billion PLUS better off. That should go a long way towards solving whatever minor difficulties a no deal Brexit might cause.

A question though: if the EU is really so good, WHY can't we just leave and WHY could it be problematic? We don't have such problems with anybody else we trade with so to me it looks like all the supposed problems we might have are the fault of the EU.

Switzerland take note.

We can just leave it is just that the vast majority of people who know anything about the economy and trade agree it would be a major hit to the UK economy, that isn't some kind of EU punishment beating, just how the economy and trade works.

A massive increase to barriers to trade with our biggest trading partner isn't going to be good for either party. and no obviously even an FTA isn't going to remotely replace all the benefits of our current trading position.

There is a reason that Thatcher viewed the UK pushing the EU's single market as one of her proudest achievements and it's not because she was a committed Europhile...

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Rather than berate Mrs May. Let's have some alternatives. Plenty of opinions but no one seems to be asking the EU themselves. Very easy to be negative. Far harder to be constuctive with a purpose. Dragging this matter out has the potential to turn into civil unrest.

We've got the 3 and a half months to go, and we have wasted most of that time negotiating with ourselves, good luck getting the EU to move a great deal further and getting it through in time for the deadline, unless Ireland suddenly backdown over the border I don't see too much room for maneuver.

May had a phenomenally tough job here, but she made it massively tougher for herself by pandering to the Hard Brexit fans with her redlines, and building up expectations of what could be achieved in talks and then botching the GE campaign last year, leaving her with no majority, dependant on ERG and DUP votes.

She might still end up getting this through though, she is almost certainly losing the vote next week badly, but if she can hold on and block off other alternatives, Parliament may end up agreeing to any old rubbish (probably this slightly rebadged with some relatively meaningless concessions by the EU) as the deadline approaches and panic sets in.

At present I don't think there is a majority in Parliament for any outcome so greater pressure is likely to need to be applied to make the various factions more willing to accept compromises, and some unlikely alliances may develop.

I don't see the Labour leadership ever changing its opposition to the Govt, but you might get more Labour rebels willing to support it. Let's see how close the vote is next week, if the loss is bad enough this might be dead in the water.

Tromking

I’m leaning toward not taking part in any new referendum should it come to pass, engaging in it would only seek to delegitimise the original vote in my opinion.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

I’m leaning toward not taking part in any new referendum should it come to pass, engaging in it would only seek to delegitimise the original vote in my opinion.

Firstly if the will of the people is to leave the EU, I have no idea why any Leave supporter is afraid of a ref to reiterate,surely it would put the question to bed for years (and quite possibly get a harder Brexit than Parliament is ever likely to vote for)?

Secondly it wouldn't be a re-run of the first referendum, it would actually have specific clear guidance to government as to exactly what voters wanted to happen, not much chance of Parliament being able to ignore that, nobody could say that about the first ref.

Parliament could decide to enact "Norway+" tomorrow (leaving us in both SM + CU) and that would still be delivering on the promise to Leave the EU, not that I would expect many Leavers to be happy about it.