Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

We have a lot of experts on JIT many who have never been involved in a supply chain except when they ordered something from Amazon.

You don't have to be an expert. Just watching how it works everywhere else without difficulty is sufficient.

VW and BMW make lots of cars in the US. Significant local content for sure but many parts still come from Germany on a JIT basis.

Works perfectly adequately on WTO terms between Germany and US. Difficult to see why it won't work between the EU and here.

Herzlos

Does it come from Germany JIT or is it warehoused longer term?
Do they have some kind of pre-clearance customs approach?


Like I said, it can be done, and I'm sure if we have a trading arrangement with the EU that allows goods to cross the border in a predictable manner then companies will be perfectly fine once the disruption is done.


But you have to admit that it works better when there's no customs checks?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Does it come from Germany JIT or is it warehoused longer term?
Do they have some kind of pre-clearance customs approach?


Like I said, it can be done, and I'm sure if we have a trading arrangement with the EU that allows goods to cross the border in a predictable manner then companies will be perfectly fine once the disruption is done.


But you have to admit that it works better when there's no customs checks?

If no deal is reach and there are delays at ports do you not think a solution will be quickly found as the disruption to supply chains will work both ways or do you think both us and EU will be happy for large parts of car production in Europe to grind to a halt.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

If no deal is reach and there are delays at ports do you not think a solution will be quickly found as the disruption to supply chains will work both ways or do you think both us and EU will be happy for large parts of car production in Europe to grind to a halt.

A solution will be found pretty quickly: Move the UK operations causing the supply chain issues over to Europe. Then the manufacturers aren't beholden to UK customs regulations.


It's a win-win for Europe - more employment, more investment, less shipping costs.
It's a lose-lose for the UK though - less employment, less investment, potentially higher costs.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

A solution will be found pretty quickly: Move the UK operations causing the supply chain issues over to Europe. Then the manufacturers aren't beholden to UK customs regulations.


It's a win-win for Europe - more employment, more investment, less shipping costs.
It's a lose-lose for the UK though - less employment, less investment, potentially higher costs.

How quickly could that be done and that can happen in U.K. in fact I think Nissan are already encouraging companies to do so. I also believe that a no deal will cause problems but you have seem think that in every case it will be the worse possible outcome. I believe when the crunch comes solutions will be found especially if they benefit both sides.

Gangaweed

Does anyone actually still think we're going to leave? I don't think so!

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

How quickly could that be done and that can happen in U.K. in fact I think Nissan are already encouraging companies to do so. I also believe that a no deal will cause problems but you have seem think that in every case it will be the worse possible outcome. I believe when the crunch comes solutions will be found especially if they benefit both sides.

I'm not looking at the worst possible outcomes, I'm just taking it from the logical point of view of a multinational looking at taking a huge financial hit.
For Nissan, the cost of warehousing 6 weeks of stock is higher than moving production to Europe. Why would they go to all that hassle to keep a factor that's outside of the union?


Granted, it'd take a few months to move everything if they have a site already (ironically it'll take a lot longer than otherwise to move the stuff because there'd be no deal covering the stuff being shipped to the EU). The government could offer them some assurances that we'd have frictionless trade before they'd have everything running, but they've not managed to offer any assurances so far.

Zero_Gravitas

buglawton wrote: »

I've yet to see any evidence of these mysterious 'risks' that are being mentioned yet.

All this statement shows is that you don’t appear to understand modern manufacturers and supply chains.

Which would also explain why you didn’t answer the question you were asked - please give examples of modern supply chains operating in a JIT manner across continents and how do they mitigate the risks of delays?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not looking at the worst possible outcomes, I'm just taking it from the logical point of view of a multinational looking at taking a huge financial hit.
For Nissan, the cost of warehousing 6 weeks of stock is higher than moving production to Europe. Why would they go to all that hassle to keep a factor that's outside of the union?


Granted, it'd take a few months to move everything if they have a site already (ironically it'll take a lot longer than otherwise to move the stuff because there'd be no deal covering the stuff being shipped to the EU). The government could offer them some assurances that we'd have frictionless trade before they'd have everything running, but they've not managed to offer any assurances so far.

Months I think it would be longer than that and finding a solution to move parts between EU and U.K. is not impossible and would be cheaper than setting up new factories.

Crashy_Time

Gangaweed wrote: »

Does anyone actually still think we're going to leave? I don't think so!

It doesn`t matter, the EU is doomed anyway! That is the beauty and comedy of watching Brussels and one of their satellite governments pretend to go "head to head" :rotfl: There will be serious political repercussions in the UK if we don`t leave however...