Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

StevieJ

buglawton wrote: »

So let me get this right, if the UK weren't in the EU, we wouldn't be allowed to make cars to sell to the EU mainland, wouldn't be allowed to have business visitors from there and wouldn't be allowed to have that inward investment?

Imagine sat in a Japanese car manufactures boardroom and deciding where to place that car manufacturing facility?
Britain - full access to EU JIT movement of cars and parts around EU, no border checks, Free Market attitude, Softened up compliant workers. Sunderland looks good.


So what cars will we be exporting to the EU when the Japanese and others pull the plug, maybe not tomorrow but certainly for future investment?

Filo25

StevieJ wrote: »

Imagine sat in a Japanese car manufactures boardroom and deciding where to place that car manufacturing facility?
Britain - full access to EU JIT movement of cars and parts around EU, no border checks, Free Market attitude, Softened up compliant workers. Sunderland looks good.


So what cars will we be exporting to the EU when the Japanese and others pull the plug, maybe not tomorrow but certainly for future investment?

With the Japan - EU trade deal now agreed it is perfectly possible that Japan may actually have better access to the EU than the UK will in the absence of a trade deal!

LHW99

I've certainly never said Remain would be a surefire winner, but I think it would be a favourite if the government can't come up with anything better than No Deal as an option.

Possibly, but then Remain was a favourite last time round, and look how that turned out.

Arklight

If English people really do get a second referendum and vote Leave again, then they deserve everything that's coming to them.

Tromking

Arklight wrote: »

If English people really do get a second referendum and vote Leave again, then they deserve everything that's coming to them.

Well done.
You're beginning to get this democracy thing.

Filo25

LHW99 wrote: »

Possibly, but then Remain was a favourite last time round, and look how that turned out.

With me pocketing some cash from my bet on Leave?

Rinoa

StevieJ wrote: »

Imagine sat in a Japanese car manufactures boardroom and deciding where to place that car manufacturing facility?
Britain - full access to EU JIT movement of cars and parts around EU, no border checks, Free Market attitude, Softened up compliant workers. Sunderland looks good.


So what cars will we be exporting to the EU when the Japanese and others pull the plug, maybe not tomorrow but certainly for future investment?

Imagine you're a Japanese car manufacturer with factories in the UK. Factories that thrive due to UK business friendly attitude and good workforce.

You sell around 700,000 thousand every year to the EU and soon these will be subject to 10% tariffs and other difficulties.

However you're also aware that the UK imports 2.3 million cars from the EU each year, and soon these too will be subject to a 10% tariff with other difficulties.

So, is this situation a plus or a minus?

Knowing the Japanese I'd argue they will see huge opportunities in this scenario.

Filo25

It doesn't matter that we have been an EU member and what deal we had when we were one, we have decided to leave, so we don't get the benefits of membership anymore, not sure what is so hard to understand about that. It's hardly like the EU is kicking us out, we are leaving of our own free will.

The EU will now negotiate as they would with any other external country and their models for trade can be seen across the world so its not hard to see what we are looking at, no Freedom of Movement, ECJ jurisdiction, etc. means a FTA at best. If we want Single market access we need to meet single market obligations, which our government clearly doesn't want to do.

My "we" pretty obviously refers to the UK government who agreed to it last year.

Filo25

Rinoa wrote: »

Imagine you're a Japanese car manufacturer with factories in the UK. Factories that thrive due to UK business friendly attitude and good workforce.

You sell around 700,000 thousand every year to the EU and soon these will be subject to 10% tariffs and other difficulties.

However you're also aware that the UK imports 2.3 million cars from the EU each year, and soon these too will be subject to a 10% tariff with other difficulties.

So, is this situation a plus or a minus?

Knowing the Japanese I'd argue they will see huge opportunities in this scenario.

It's the non tariff barriers and loss of effective access to pan European supply chains that will probably cause most issues for UK car manufacturers in the event of a Hard Brexit, even UK "produced" cars sold in the UK are expected to go up in price.

Rinoa

Filo25 wrote: »

It's the non tariff barriers and loss of effective access to pan European supply chains that will probably cause most issues for UK car manufacturers in the event of a Hard Brexit, even UK "produced" cars sold in the UK are expected to go up in price.

UK manufacturers will simply use UK parts suppliers.

If your competitors prices rise 10%, and they account for 2/3rds of the market, that's a massive sales opportunity.