Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There's no option on the table to remain currently. The daily business of the EU hasn't stopped. If the Government and the EU cannot agree then "no deal" is the default. Not an option. The EU has to break ranks eventually. Then the picture will become much clearer.

What do you expect them to break ranks on?

Irish border is maybe the best chance, all the dreams of Canada++++ seem ill founded though, I don;t think the EU is going to suddenly magically offer us something dramatically better than they already have in place with any of their other numerous trading partners.

Thrugelmir

No deal makes no sense for the EU as a whole. As the UK has no obligation to do anything.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No deal makes no sense for the EU as a whole. As the UK has no obligation to do anything.

It certainly doesn't make sense for the UK either but that doesn't seem to stop many MPs taking actions that are pushing us towards that destination.

Pick a trade model that the EU has with another country and go with it as a starting point, but the UK still seems incapable of managing even that, we still expect a far better deal than the EU has seen fit to negotiate with any other counterparty.

The problem is there are clearly Conservative MPs who actively seem to be pursuing no deal as their favoured outcome

buglawton

The conservative party is evenly split
- One side hopes for no deal to prove Brexit is a failure
- The other side hopes for no deal for the best long-term outcome

With May at the top pretending to be looking for a deal.

Undervalued_one

Filo25 wrote: »

What do you expect them to break ranks on?

Just for starters Ireland becoming a second Greece or worse?
"Britain is not the only one under pressure. The unity of the remaining 27 EU states in facing off with Britain has started to crack as the risk of a damaging “no-deal” Brexit rises.

Poland’s EU minister Konrad Szymanski told his peers in July the bloc may soon be forced to chose between Ireland and having any deal with Britain. "
That's one example, from Reuters today. For some reason I can't post a link but the title is "EU diplomats expect delay in Brexit deal beyond October target".

Filo25 wrote: »

Irish border is maybe the best chance, all the dreams of Canada++++ seem ill founded though, I don;t think the EU is going to suddenly magically offer us something dramatically better than they already have in place with any of their other numerous trading partners.

Hang on.
We're asking for similar to what we have, in order to keep trade between us as similar to what already exists as possible so that neither they nor us suffer.
Not something better.
They aren't even offering what they already have in place with their other trading partners.
That stinks if you ask me.

Since no matter how you count it the EU sells us many tens of billions of pounds worth of stuff every year more than we sell them, it should be in the interests of the EU to agree.
But that would be expecting the EU to be logical, and the EU don't do logical.
Or timely.

Enterprise_1701C

Filo25 wrote: »

It's just as well I have never been called a whinging Remoaner or various other terms of endearment on here then, clearly Leave supporters are far above such things.

By its nature the Remain campaign was probably always going to veer towards negativity, it is difficult to make a massively positive case for the status quo beyond pointing out what you lose if it goes away. The Leave campaign could get away with promising the vague sunny uplands stuff, because there wasn't a clear model for what Leave would look like, even under a "No Deal" there is still very little clarity about what model of immigration policy would be pursued as an example.

It is something the Leave campaign exploited very well, implying cuts to immigration to those groups most concerned by it, and implying increased immigration from outside the EU in a fairer system to others

Have you not worked out that there can never be a "status quo" when it comes to the eu!!

They have already said that they want all to join the euro by 2025, or there will be a two speed eu.

If vetos get in the way of what they want to do then they will abolish the vetos. As for budget rebates, they will disappear too. And if they want yet more people to join it looks like they will be taking on more net takers, so where is that money coming from? Subs will have to be increased, can't see the eu cutting down their admin costs, which were 8.4 billion euros in 2011, only looked briefly so couldn't find anything more recent.

So no, there is no status quo, there is just the eu deciding what they want to do, without asking the people, and then saying pay us double what you paid 10 years ago and let everyone stroll into your country to the extent that your own people forget that they actually used to do seasonal jobs, waiting jobs etc, and your people are afraid to call themselves British. Oh, and hang on, we forgot to tell you, all your countries will stop being countries in their own right in 2030, it will be a us of e, we will take all your taxes and make Germany the leader of Europe so they will get all your money.

Arklight

Brexit flat earthers are clutching at straws. Their movement is collapsing from the inside out. And no manner of Rees Mogg onanising, diesel estate driving, red faced, Question Time bellowing at the TV, Express reading ranters is going to make any difference.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No deal makes no sense for the EU as a whole. As the UK has no obligation to do anything.

What makes you think the EU has any obligation to do anything?

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

Pick a trade model that the EU has with another country and go with it as a starting point, but the UK still seems incapable of managing even that, we still expect a far better deal than the EU has seen fit to negotiate with any other counterparty.

We are not party to the hours of detailed discussion that's been had. The UK can not publicly suggest something that has already been categorically dismissed. The public utterings are in part one suspects an attempt to move on from an impasse.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Even if nobody changes their mind though and there is no change in turnout patterns you would still see a closing of the margin just on the basis of simple demographics, a few years have passed, some older people (predominantly Leave voting ) have died, more younger people (primarily Remain) come onto the electoral roll.

To maintain the margin we would need to see voters from last time becoming more Eurosceptic as they got older, or more favourable turnout patterns for Leave

True but it's far from a forgone conclusion that remain would win and a close result either way would only make things worse.