Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

movilogo

andrewf75 wrote: »

Surely building up the economies of Eastern Europe so that 1) their people don’t just migrate to Western Europe and 2) so that they become a new market for our goods/services *is* good for our economy.

[1] So EU aims to make UK poorer than Eastern European economies

[2] For new markets, it is far better to trap booming economies of BRIC countries (i.e. Brazil, India, Russia, China) which are all outside EU. :cool:

andrewf75

movilogo wrote: »

[1] So EU aims to make UK poorer than Eastern European economies

[2] For new markets, it is far better to trap booming economies of BRIC countries (i.e. Brazil, India, Russia, China) which are all outside EU. :cool:

Your first point is nonsense. The EU aims to bring Eastern European economies up to the level of the West of course, but there is obviously no intention to make the rich countries poorer.

Second point makes sense, but we don’t need to leave the EU to do that. Yes, we can more easily do trade deals as one country rather than 28, but if we want more access to their markets, they will want more access to ours, it works both ways.

movilogo

EU aims to bring Eastern European economies up to the level of the West of course,

By siphoning West's money to East, of course.

Proof:
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/

3.8 million EU citizens migrated to UK
1.3 million UK citizens migrated to EU

So free movement of people not working in UK's favour.

Herzlos

Only if you don't view having migrants as a good thing.
Migrants are good for the UK. We need more of them.

kabayiri wrote: »

Leveling up won't happen.

It already has happened. It's just an ongoing process.

Why do you think Mondelez has moved confectionery production to the huge plant in Poland?

Why has Ford moved transit production to Turkey?

Why does practically every major bank or service company use thousands upon thousands of call centre workers in India?

Why have factories moved from China to even cheaper Vietnam and Cambodia?

Labour cost is a significant overhead, and global players will always seek to lower overheads.

There is no evidence that the EU deterred all these major institutions shifting vast numbers of jobs outside the bloc.

EE is still cheaper than the UK, but it's not as cheap as it used to be, so they must have leveled up already.


Companies will always go for the most business-friendly option, which is usually cheaper staff (or productivity improvements). How does Brexit help us here? It makes it harder for UK based manufacturing - they'll likely need to pay tariffs to reach the larger market, and if they are paying tariffs anyway they may as well go somewhere labour is really cheap. They lose JIT capabilities - if that's important they need to go over to the continent. It'll potentially weaken our academia & research, which is just going to mean that the world leading design/engineering will come from somewhere else in the future so we don't even have that.




I understand the big value you see in Brexit is allowing us to join a race to the bottom, but that's definitely not the campaign Leave was running on.

andrewf75

movilogo wrote: »

By siphoning West's money to East, of course.

Proof:
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/

3.8 million EU citizens migrated to UK
1.3 million UK citizens migrated to EU

So free movement of people not working in UK's favour.

Simplistic in the extreme!
Do you genuinely think being a net contributer to the budget is the whole picture?
Budget contributions are a very small part of the overall cost/benefit analysis.

Its entirely possible – and almost certainly the case – that being in the EU has an overall net benefit to our economy despite us being a net contributer to the budget. If it was as simple as you suggest we wouldn’t have needed a referendum to leave!

Herzlos

movilogo wrote: »

EU allowed Slovakia to tempt Jaguar Land Rover away from UK with £110m state aid pledge

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1070509/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Slovakia-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-Jaguar-Land-Rover-job-latest

So Slovakia received money (where UK contributed) from EU which then they used to bribe a UK business to move jobs out of UK and EU allows that.

Still the remainers argue staying in EU is better for economy.:mad:

What makes you think that wouldn't have happened outside of the EU?

phillw

movilogo wrote: »

Very true.

Remainers are racist because they want preferential treatment of EU people over more qualified people from other parts of the world.

No we don't & the numbers of immigrants from outside of the EU are greater than those from inside the EU.

It's just another one of those leave lies that we've been hearing about for the last couple of years. Leave found the nazi propoganda machine and have restarted it.

Congratulations for buying into it.

movilogo wrote: »

By siphoning West's money to East, of course.

Proof:
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/

3.8 million EU citizens migrated to UK
1.3 million UK citizens migrated to EU

So free movement of people not working in UK's favour.

So you'd think it was working more in the UK's favour if more people had deserted the UK?

That is rather twisted logic. With the benefit the UK has had from the EU, more people have moved here & then contributed even more benefit.

If you think the less people we have in the country the better, then I hope you are part of the 0.1% of the UK population that will actually benefit from brexit (i.e. the kind of people that can afford to burn bank notes to heat their houses). Our entire welfare state system is based on a pyramid scheme that requires more and more people to keep coming in and contributing.

Leaving the EU was a con job from the elite to self harm. It's amazing they got so many people.

movilogo

What makes you think that wouldn't have happened outside of the EU?

It can happen outside EU as well but then manufacturer has to fund it entire from its own pocket, it will not happen using UK tax payers' money (that is being sent to EU) - that's the difference

Because our entire welfare state system is based on a pyramid scheme that requires more and more people to keep coming in.

That's the exact problem. A pyramid scheme is a scam and not sustainable in long run.

I hope you are part of the 0.1% of the UK population that will actually benefit from brexit

I think you are part of 0.1% of population i.e. owners of companies who keep wage down by importing unlimited cheap labour from EU and hence very vocal in favour of staying in EU.

Herzlos

movilogo wrote: »

It can happen outside EU as well but then manufacturer has to fund it entire from its own pocket, it will not happen using UK tax payers' money (that is being sent to EU) - that's the difference

But it's no UK tax payers money. The Slovakian government provided the money. They'd have provided the money if either the UK/Slovakia weren't in the EU. Being in the EU had no direct bearing on it.


Now, the EU did (I believe) provide some infrastructure funding, but that's still unrelated to the factory deal.

That's the exact problem. A pyramid scheme is a scam and not sustainable in long run.

Which requires proper change, not just blaming those at the bottom and chasing them off.

I think you are part of 0.1% of population i.e. owners of companies who keep wage down by importing unlimited cheap labour from EU and hence very vocal in favour of staying in EU.

Staying in the EU benefits almost everyone. It's insane to think that staying in the EU is some elite conspiracy to keep wages down, when the actual elites who want to cut wages and workers rights (the "red tape") are the ones pushing for the hard Brexit.

andrewf75

movilogo wrote: »

That's the exact problem. A pyramid scheme is a scam and not sustainable in long run.

This is a fair point, but we need an answer to the problem. Brexit isn’t it. With a rapidly ageing population, reducing immigration significantly means the workforce will shrink, not just stay constant. That means the economy will shrink. To be sustainable we really need to embrace falling GDP somehow and no-one seems to know how.