US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

neilbond007

looks like we might be having an end of day rally?

i'm off to shoot some pool and drink some beers.

catch you all tomorrow

inspector_monkfish

trading 1.4025

glenandemm

whats the outlook then with all that info about to come out?

inspector_monkfish

glenandemm wrote: »

whats the outlook then with all that info about to come out?

[EMAIL="!!!!"]craaap[/EMAIL] !!

inspector_monkfish

when i got in at 7.00am cable was trading at 1.4025, it then moved up to 1.4050, and then suddenly nose-dived to 1.3995, where it is right now

all eyes on the MPC minutes released at 9.30am

inspector_monkfish

07:35 18Mar09 GBP/USD: On the Back Foot In Early European Trade

[07:35 GBP/USD: On the Back Foot In Early European Trade] London, March 18. The
pound has come under pressure from the European open, with cable falling to an
intra-day low of 1.3995, having traded a 1.4029-1.4072 range in Asia today.

The
BoE will today buy another GBP 3bn of gilts via "reverse auction", following its
recent cumulative purchase of GBP 4bn of gilts, in the latest stage of its
"Quantitative Easing" Asset Purchase Programme. The risk that a segment of the
proceeds might be exchanged into other currencies by foreign investors is an
ever-present GBP-negative (more than a third of gilts are owned by foreign
entities).

Minutes from the March 4/5 BoE MPC meeting, at which the APP was unveiled
alongside a 50bp Bank Rate cut to 0.5%, will be unveiled at 09:30GMT, alongside
UK unemployment data.
1.3965 (yesterday"s low) and 1.3895 (Monday"s early Asian session low) are
sterling support points.

BoE Governor Mervyn King last night called for the UK government to explain
how it intends to pay back the hundreds of billions of pounds worth of debt it
has incurred re: the financial crisis (Daily Telegraph, B1 &
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2009/023.htm). UK Chancellor
Alistair Darling will deliver his annual budget five weeks today (Apr 22).

A leaked IMF report forecasts that the UK economy will contract by 3.8% this
year, and by 0.2% next year. The IMF predicts that the US economy will contract
by 2.6% this year, before growing by 0.2% next year (Daily Telegraph).

There is a strong view emerging that the Federal Reserve will not indicate a
readiness to commit to the QE path when it delivers a 18:15GMT statement at the
conclusion of its two-day meeting.

inspector_monkfish

getting smashed down to 1.3965 now

song for the day....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6H2_0my44A

inspector_monkfish

seems markets are intent on whacking the Pound lower, whatever news comes out.

My opinion is that USD/GBP rate WILL get better later on this year, but not before the markets send it lower again. I would guess something like 1.35 being a nice low for it to bounce off.

I hope I'm wrong, and instead it flies onwards and upwards from where it is right now, but it just seems as though there is a little bit worse still to come before things can get better.

It doesn't make sense, for I can see no reason for it to go lower, but someone somewhere seems to be dicking around with it and not playing by the usual rules !! :mad:

inspector_monkfish

08:02 18Mar09 Gbp battered anew, UK jobs and IMF warnings cited

08:01 GMT - Pre UK jobs report, the [POUND] is coming under pressure anew.
Cable is already down a cent in Europe and Eur/Gbp is back above 0.93.
Dow Futures are in negative territory (-14 June contract) and ahead of the
potentially very soft UK jobs report, Gbp is getting disproportionately
sold. A UK clearer and US investment house have been noted sellers and
stops have been tripped through 1.3990/00 and 1.3950/55 and the 200-hour
mov ave as well as on the break of 0.9300. 1.3865 and 0.9360 next major
bear targets here. Players cite the UK jobs report and IMF warnings on
the UK economy as factors behind the selloff. Cable last at 1.3965, just
above the 1.3948 low.

neilbond007

well i wasn't expecting a good day. let's strap ourselves in for a whole lot of disappointment!
nice tune... here's another song of the day
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKe2OfXLxuc