US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

IvanOpinion

photome wrote: »

I am going to gambel, not buy any and use my nationwide debit card when I am there next march, hoping to get about 2.15 to pound if the experts are right

Go for it .. however I don't think the 'experts' know any more than rest of us. America is coming under a lot of external pressure to strengthen the dollar (particularly since oil is priced in dollars and its price starting to hurt a lot of countries) ... after America has benefitted from the Christmas period it may well respond .. also rumour has it that assuming the current climate continues our own interest rates may fall early in the new year ... I have tried reading tea leaves, consulting psychics, rubbing blue dots etc. etc. but ultimately nobody knows which way the dollar is going to go.

ivan

Dumyat

we stayed at a Hilton hotel in Florida this year. I booked via hilton website and we were charged in dollars when we arrived. they had a lot of "deals" on their own website some of which worked out cheaper than the discount hotel website.

alchemista

Based on reviewing the information on this post, I think this deal is worth posting as a one-off deal:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=594551

Essentially, Crown Currency Exchange is offering a promotion (they say it is TODAY only, but do you trust them?) for a bonus rate for buying dollars now to redeem between March and May 08. This bonus rate works out really well based on many indicators that I'll describe here...

Their bonus rates:
March 08 - 2.12
Apr 08 - 2.125
May 08 - 2.13
http://crowncurrencyexchange.com/content/us-dollars.asp


For those who are not financially minded, you may just trust me that this is a great deal if you need USD around that time (I do not recommend doing this for investing purposes because having to exchange back to GBP will make your gains minimal. I strongly recommend for those who are needing USD anyways)

For those who want more evidence, here's why it's a good deal. Although buying for any future rate is speculation, I'll argue that this makes sense for even non-speculators who are looking for a great dollar rate (for travel, purchase, etc) around March-June 08 next year.

First, the rates CC are offering would imply a market rate of about 2% higher than the CC rates (because even the best exchangers like TEG will offer around 2% less than market rate). So, if you held on to your money you could get CC rates (from someone like TEG) in March-May 08 only if the market rates were roughly:

March 08 - 2.16
Apr 08 - 2.166
May 08 - 2.171

Now, the future markets here:
http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=BSTK&section=currencies
Are trading at 2.08 in March 08, and reached a high of 2.106. So, the market rates above are much more optimistic (3%) than even the future rates.

Now, the reason this is a good deal even for non-speculators who need USD around this time next year can be understood by one of these perspectives:

1. Effectively you're able to exchange for USD at the highest rates you can get today (through TEG at 2.06) and stick those dollars into a very high yield savings account. So it's like buying today and having your USD in a bank account earning 6.8+% interest (8.7% if you get 2.12 in March, 7.57% if you get 2.125 in Apr, 6.8% if you get 2.13 in May), which is great if you're going to travel (try getting that rate somewhere on a short term CD).

2. You are effectively getting high premiums on buying dollars today, without losing any penalties due to missed interest in holding your pounds. To estimate how high of a premium, take the interest rates above and subtract the interest rate you can get holding pounds in your bank. Let's say you're able to get 5% on your savings. Then, you are effectively getting the following premiums on today's market rates (and not losing interest, which is usually the downside of buying too early):
Mar - 3.7%
Apr - 2.57%
May - 1.8%


What's the downside? The only way you can go wrong with this is if the USD weakens more than 3% than the futures markets already expect. So, you can outperform the pros by 3% and still be as good off as you'd be if you'd waited. That's a pretty good margin to feel comfortable with.

Again, this is not meant for speculators. It is meant for anyone needing USD (for travel, or for a purchase) around Mar-Jun next year... An excellent deal.

photome

Hope you get through to all those who are buying at $2 at the Po etc and not travelling for a few months

Party_Animal

budgetflyer wrote: »

Whats the point of visiting this site Party_Animal?

Well I certainly don't come here to listen to to**ers like you. I travel extensively all round the world and I find most people on this site very helpful ( you're the exception). I'm often able to help others too so its a reciprocal arrangement. As for your sarcy comments about the timing of my dollar purchase, I received over 2. It was actually 2.05, which I am happy with and it may be of some value to others. This may or may not be the best time to exchange, who knows? I wouldn't be so smart as to try and tell people when to change. I would simply say change when you're happy with the rate. I was happy at 2.05. I believe its dropped a little since then. As for you BF try moving over to the Angry Investor where acting like a complete pr*ck seems to be acceptable.

ynot2005

another option to consider in what/where is the best rate is high street travel agents or money shop type places that send money abroad

i got €1.41 just for a few €200 and €100 notes last week, m&S was €1.3820, i have had even better deals in the past from thomas cook, they dont like holding onto very large notes that hardly anyone wants to buy

just a thought, next time you see a currency advert it may be worth a look

zappahey

IvanOpinion wrote: »

America is coming under a lot of external pressure to strengthen the dollar (particularly since oil is priced in dollars and its price starting to hurt a lot of countries)

So, how does a strengthened dollar help with high oil prices? Surely a weaker dollar is better for those who need to buy oil?

chrissiewants2save

Going to Florida next Easter. I can afford to buy my dollars now. Should I buy them now or wait? I can get them for as much as 2.06. Will they or can they possibly get any better????
THanks
x

Inspector

chrissiewants2save wrote: »

Going to Florida next Easter. I can afford to buy my dollars now. Should I buy them now or wait? I can get them for as much as 2.06. Will they or can they possibly get any better????
THanks
x

You are already winning so why not?

I'm going in Dec 2008 and I bought mine when they hit 2 to the £. I got $2010 for £1000 just a week ago.

Surely they can't keep going at this rate???

mountainchrisriver

Few posts down... and magic...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=591391

HTH