House Price Crash Discussion Thread

Generali

It's a shame that it comes to this. A little self control by posters would have done a better job.

IveSeenTheLight

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

Could we add a poll asking what users think prices will be in 2010?



GG

I think they will be higher than they are now, even if there is a house price stagnation / drop

IveSeenTheLight

TimmyP wrote: »

It can be done mate, the key is savings (and I guess to a degree having a reasonable salary).

I've this week just had an offer accepted on my first house. It just takes time mate - at least the market is slowing which obviously helps.

I'm not one that believes they'll be a crash as in the early nineties - there's a lot of scare mongering on which I don't think is right. As I work for a housebuilder our whole product is based on the housing market, and our projections for 2008 are still strong - as are most housebuilder for that matter.

Well done Timmy.
Glad to hear that FTBers CAN get onto the ladder if they want and try hard enough.
No-one said it would be easy, ask any parent how hard it was for them to get mortgages.
You just have to start small and work your way up

IveSeenTheLight

Biggie wrote: »

thought i'd give my 2ps worth

My personal view is that propery will probably stagnate in London for at least a couple of years after that god know ....

And a comment much more valuable than 2ps.

I agree, there will not be a crash.
Some areas will stagnate, some may drop a little, others will continue to rise albeit slower than recent trends.

Long term though, history prooves that house prices will continue to rise.

ivegotabig1

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

And a comment much more valuable than 2ps.

I agree, there will not be a crash.
Some areas will stagnate, some may drop a little, others will continue to rise albeit slower than recent trends.

Long term though, history prooves that house prices will continue to rise.

With credit harder to come by, Oil at an all time high & the u.k economy set to slow significantly you are without doubt being optimistic !! dare is say unrealisitic..see my earlier post on this thread Re: the U.S Proeprty markets continued woes..anyway I remember People saying much the same as youself in early 90's !!!

WTF?_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

And a comment much more valuable than 2ps.

I agree, there will not be a crash.
Some areas will stagnate, some may drop a little, others will continue to rise albeit slower than recent trends.

Long term though, history prooves that house prices will continue to rise.

Doesn't really matter that they rise in the long term if you buy at the peak of a cycle (as it very much looks like we are at now). In that case, it could be many years before the real value of your house is back to what you paid for it.

Equities also trend upwards in the long term and (I think) have tended to increase in value slightly more than housing. So if you are investing, seems like stocks and shares are the way to go. They're also a lot more liquid than housing assets and don't incur large transaction fees when the time comes to sell.

Property generally isn't an effective long term investment unless you happen to get lucky or can buy at the bottom of a trough (under the right circumstances it can also generate a good revenue stream). People have been duped by the stellar and unsustainable growth of the last few years into thinking that it's a surefire, one-way route to riches.


Of course, none of this would be an issue if people treated buying a house as buying a home but thanks to a combination of things over the last 6 or 7 years, houses are now as much about 'making money' as they are about living in.

It's a pretty sad indictment of society that for many people, their property bought pre-2002 is the only thing that keeps them financially solvent. At this stage, it's essentially a major driver for the general economy too. When it crashes, it's highly likely to coincide with a steep recession.

IveSeenTheLight

ivegotabig1 wrote: »

With credit harder to come by, Oil at an all time high & the u.k economy set to slow significantly you are without doubt being optimistic !! dare is say unrealisitic..see my earlier post on this thread Re: the U.S Proeprty markets continued woes..anyway I remember People saying much the same as youself in early 90's !!!

I concede there may be a slight price drop in some areas, but you really seem insistant there will be a crash everywhere.

I doubt that the prices will drop below what I have paid for my properties

I have yet to see anyone show me a property that crashed in the 90's and has not recovered and surpassed the price before the crash.

If you have taken all necessary precautions then most people should be able to ride through any crash, and there are many options for doing this (increase the amortization period, overpay into the mortgage account thus reducing the debt etc etc)

BobProperty

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I have yet to see anyone show me a property that crashed in the 90's and has not recovered and surpassed the price before the crash.

But that was 15+ years ago. That's like saying no-one who was working in 1990 is earning less than they are now.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

If you have taken all necessary precautions then most people should be able to ride through any crash, and there are many options for doing this (increase the amortization period, overpay into the mortgage account thus reducing the debt etc etc)

Like guaranteeing to be in employment? That was one of the major problems in the early 90s.
I'd like any of the "there won't be a crash" merchants to show me when prices have levelled out as opposed to fallen.

ivegotabig1

"doubt that the prices will drop below what I have paid for my properties"

& there lies the key to the comments on these boards !!! ..People believe what they WANT to believe not necessarily to where the facts point !! I am Also a house owner but try to stand back from the trees so i can see the wood !!!!
There will not be a crash !!! However this idea that they will just stagnate or level off is simply clutching at straws for thoes with a vested interest...Last yr a friend bought a property for a loft conversion, looks lovely now finished & is in a lovely rural setting !! However he has had to reduce it from 349k to 299 k & still cannot get a sniff...FACT...
IMO property will decline at a modest rate for the next 2-3 yrs..say 4-5 % Per annum, which will ofcourse mean MY property will no doubt be worth less than it is now.... I cannot believe how some feel the huge surge in property prices of recent yrs can have a happy ending for all !!! Just look at the U.S !!! Its happend there & it will happen here also !! albeit to a lesser degree ..

Lotus-eater

I remember in about 88 when I was standing around with a group of my mates saying how if we had any money, we would put it all into houses as they were completely safe and would earn us lots of money.....
Well we all learn't that prices can go down as well as up at that time, if they will go down, no one really knows, but its amazing how people forget. Only a couple of weeks ago my parents were telling me that I had to get into BTL as it was "the thing to be in" I looked at them with disbelief, I can tell you and they wouldn't listen to any talk of prices going down, as "they will always go up again" which of course is true, but it may take a few years as happened the last couple of times.

OK, I enjoy reading the forums about what might happen as much as anyone, so my prediction. I honestly don't know the complete story, of what will happen, but looking at the Nationwide graph of mean house prices, it has to be obvious prices have to come down. We've virtually talked ourselves into a crash already, what with the media suddenly having all property doom shows springing out of the woodwork. FTBers aren't going to be rushing to buy now, all the other things are going to happen that we know about, like some people frantic to sell.
But I still think we're not quite in the crash yet, may be we need one other thing to push us over, to go from a slight fall and slowdown into a full blown panic. Who knows what that will be It could just be the doom and gloom coming out of the tv.