bitcoin trading.

ValiantSon

If they have increased by 40% in a week that is pretty redolent of a speculative bubble. How has the intrinsic value of the asset changed to justify such a spike?

hildosaver

ValiantSon wrote: »

If they have increased by 40% in a week that is pretty redolent of a speculative bubble. How has the intrinsic value of the asset changed to justify such a spike?

Alt coins are like penny stocks really - at least that is how I see them - so they do tend to have quite dramatic swings in value from time to time but in my experience they can be a good indicator of money starting to enter the crypto space again. Many people invest in Alts first because they see it as a cheaper option than Bitcoin and also may have a better potential to make bigger gains quicker.


Alts have been suppressed in the past few months while the bear market has been in control of bitcoin but with these recent uptrends in some Alts I think there is a good chance that money will soon start flowing back into Bitcoin - I've seen this happen many times before. Like I said - nothing is certain but as an indicator it's pretty good.

ValiantSon

hildosaver wrote: »

Alt coins are like penny stocks really - at least that is how I see them - so they do tend to have quite dramatic swings in value from time to time but in my experience they can be a good indicator of money starting to enter the crypto space again. Many people invest in Alts first because they see it as a cheaper option than Bitcoin and also may have a better potential to make bigger gains quicker.


Alts have been suppressed in the past few months while the bear market has been in control of bitcoin but with these recent uptrends in some Alts I think there is a good chance that money will soon start flowing back into Bitcoin - I've seen this happen many times before. Like I said - nothing is certain but as an indicator it's pretty good.

But nothing you have said deals with my point about intrinsic value and this being a speculative bubble; indeed what you say actually reinforces the point.

hildosaver

ValiantSon wrote: »

But nothing you have said deals with my point about intrinsic value and this being a speculative bubble; indeed what you say actually reinforces the point.

That doesn't mean the price won't go up though - that is all I'm talking about here - price. The intrinsic value is either there or it isn't depending on your view.

ValiantSon

hildosaver wrote: »

That doesn't mean the price won't go up though - that is all I'm talking about here - price. The intrinsic value is either there or it isn't depending on your view.

My point was about the price rises being indicative of a speculative bubble. All bubbles burst and speculators lose lots of money.

hildosaver

ValiantSon wrote: »

My point was about the price rises being indicative of a speculative bubble. All bubbles burst and speculators lose lots of money.

I thought the Bitcoin bubble had burst? This is the nature of crypto at present - big influx of money = massive spikes in price followed by people taking profits and the price falling. It is a cycle that has occurred since 2009 and it will continue for several years imo - is it speculating? Yes. Is it a bubble? Yes but it is one of what will be many.

There is no one big Bitcoin/crypto bubble like you would read in the media - there have been many bubbles in it's life so far and there will be more to come.

I'm not saying this is good or bad, I'm just saying that I can see signs of another 'bubble' starting to inflate slowly.

eskbanker

hildosaver wrote: »

There is no one big Bitcoin/crypto bubble like you would read in the media - there have been many bubbles in it's life so far and there will be more to come.

Perhaps West Ham fans have bought into bitcoin too?

I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams,
They fade and die.
Fortune's always hiding,
I've looked everywhere,
I'm forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.

grey_gym_sock

hildosaver wrote: »

That doesn't mean the price won't go up though - that is all I'm talking about here - price. The intrinsic value is either there or it isn't depending on your view.

certainly we can talk about price trends, separately from fundamental value, for bitcoin, just as we can for soybeans, or starwars memorabilia, or whatever.

many prices do have trends, i.e. they tend to keep moving in the same direction for a while, until they don't. this isn't saying nothing: a truly random walk in a price would look different from a sequence of trends, each of which eventually reverses. but it's pretty useless for prediction: all you can say is that either the trend will reverse or it won't.

hildosaver wrote: »

There is no one big Bitcoin/crypto bubble like you would read in the media - there have been many bubbles in it's life so far and there will be more to come.

here i disagree. there are many bubbles; but i think there is also one big one, which hasn't broken yet. this is evidenced by the many people (including you) who still have faith in bitcoin rising to new highs, despite the falls we've seen.

i suspect it will take a much bigger fall, at least 99% from peak, to break confidence in the big bubble.

hildosaver

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

here i disagree. there are many bubbles; but i think there is also one big one, which hasn't broken yet. this is evidenced by the many people (including you) who still have faith in bitcoin rising to new highs, despite the falls we've seen.

i suspect it will take a much bigger fall, at least 99% from peak, to break confidence in the big bubble.

Bitcoin has had several big big crashes. The links below illustrates it well.

https://i2.wp.com/bitcoinexchangeguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/bitcoin-btc-price-corrections-history.jpg?resize=651%2C420&ssl=1

https://i2.wp.com/bitcoinexchangeguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/bitcoin-selloff-crashes.jpg?w=696&ssl=1

There will be more to come I have no doubt. I expect it - the trouble is that many people who flooded into this market in the past year didn't and got burnt.

What you are expecting is Bitcoin to completely fail at one point and for it to become worthless - I do not believe that will occur. If you think like you do then anybody would be insane to invest anything into it so I get your point of view but I firmly believe that Bitcoin is here to stay.

Thrugelmir

hildosaver wrote: »

I thought the Bitcoin bubble had burst? This is the nature of crypto at present - big influx of money = massive spikes in price followed by people taking profits and the price falling.

There's two sides to every trade. Some people will be nursing equally sizable losses. Talking up values maybe their way of exiting positions. Passing the buck to another ill informed investor.