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hildosaver wrote: »What I don't get - particularly on a 'money saving' forum - is that a few people appear to suggest that in order for me to truely believe in an investment I should sell everything I own to buy it and put my entire families wellbeing at risk as a result. Utter lunacy to suggest that and it is laughable that some doubt my stance on Bitcoin because I choose not to risk everything on it.
When they fall in value the threads dry up and the evangelists vanish.
Today for the first time ever I bought some crypto (Ethereum in my case). If you look at the charts for the last year (I know that's dodgy in isolation!) you will see the price is basically at the sensible level it should have been if the madness at the beginning of the year had never happened.
Why is the forum not full of people saying "buy now" when they were just before it fell? Because they are all bunkered down embarrassed to be nursing losses. But they will return next time the madness returns. Be sure to ignore them.0 -
hildosaver wrote: »I'm not convinced that Bitcoin will be a proper currency in the future (although there is every chance it will) however I am convinced that it will be seen as an alternative to the likes of gold.
It wouldn't surprise me. But the fundamental problem is that you can't take some random cheap metal, paint it a shiny colour, call it NewGold or OneGold or MetalliCash and then flog it to the masses at an Initial Metal Offering. The shiny paint will flake off and it won't have the same industrial uses which means it's objectively inferior to actual gold.
Whereas anyone can get an off-the-shelf mining algorithm and duplicate BitCoin. It doesn't matter that there are only 21 million possible Bitcoins, anyone can take the same very long numbers, or a different mining algorithm entirely, call it Bitcoin II or Bitcoiin (actually that one's taken) and dump another x million cryptocoins on the market. Unlike with gold vs altgold, there is no objective reason why Bitcoin should be worth more than them. Other than Bitcoin being the original, and people are fickle about putting value on such things.
Despite there being 3,000 cryptocurrencies and counting, money is still flooding into cryptocurrency faster than dodgy scammers can invent new cryptocurrencies. But that won't last forever.What I don't get - particularly on a 'money saving' forum - is that a few people appear to suggest that in order for me to truely believe in an investment I should sell everything I own to buy it and put my entire families wellbeing at risk as a result.
This is the problem I was talking about. The vast majority of people currently think that Bitcoin is worth nothing. The idea that Bitcoin will grow further and then stabilise relies on the vast majority of people coming to think like you do. But if even you don't believe it, why should we?
It's like being part of a cult that believes the world will end in 2020 and then finding that the founder has been salting away donations into a pension plan. "Of course I still believe that the world will end, I'm just putting some money away just in case I'm wrong. I mean, you'd've have to be some kind of moron to bet the house on it. Wait, where are you all going?" You're the Gerald Ratner of cryptocurrency.0 -
none of the practical, non-speculative uses of cryptocurrencies to date involve holding it any longer than the minimum time necessary (to complete your drug deal / launder your illegal money / extract your money from a country which [STRIKE]oppresses[/STRIKE]taxes rich people). holding it is pure speculation. and i can't see how this would change. so greater adoption may not lead to higher prices. and virtually all cryptocurrencies are currently held by speculative hoarders. who will start to bail out if the price goes low enough. so vastly lower prices (99% falls from peak, and more) are entirely plausible.
it is rather like gold. except if alchemy worked, in the sense that any bright 12-year-old with a chemistry set could invent a new shiny element.0 -
Bitcoin, like other crypto is obviously worth something or they wouldn't be worth anything, they serve a purpose and function, the free market is deciding what that is and how much it's worth.
No amount of incantation, wishful thinking or ignorant drivel by detractors is going to change that.
BTC and every other clone is simply part of a growing cryto environment subject to free market interaction, innovation and price discovery, much to the growing irritation of the 'controllers', gatekeepers and those who just want it all to go away for some reason.
It's taking place inclusively and transparently, which may result in a breakthrough at some point as the processes, utility and accessibility offered evolve or it may not. There are clearly internal and external hurdles to overcome.
One thing for certain, it isn't going to need, demand or rely on tax payer bailouts to preserve the systems and lifestyles of those running it.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
It's impossible to arrive at a figure that one would define as "fair value" for bitcoin as there are such strongly opposing points of view. I have seen "experts" say that it is doomed to failure whilst other "experts" on the other side of the divide express their view that it will grow phenomenally. The two points of view are total polar opposites. I'd say neither is right. Or wrong. Why? Because I believe it is impossible to arrive at any conclusion simply because we cannot foresee what may or may not happen with the technology and generally in the "crypto space".
I think there was media and public euphoria throughout 2017 which drove the price up from around $900 to $19,700, ie. approx. 2,000%. Since then it has more or less steadily fallen back by almost two thirds; currently at around $8,000. I am certainly no "expert", and I believe that nobody else is either, but in my humble opinion I think there are two ways it can go from here. It will continue to fall to a new 2018 low, possible to a one year low, thereby demonstrating that it was a bubble. Then, bitcoin will either go to close enough to zero and never recover or, it will start to rise again and reach new highs.
How it will play out will depend on technological developments both with bitcoin itself and with everything else going on in the space, particularly with new cryptoassets. Bitcoin has severe limitations, both in terms of transactions that can be processed and fees. It also uses a lot of energy. If these factors are not permanently overcome, the latter scenario may play out. We could see the demise of bitcoin and the emergence of a new, "super" coin that will quickly fill the void; a coin that will offer close to zero fees, scalability of transactions and based on a mining system that uses a tiny fraction of the world's energy resources compared to bitcoin.
We are nine years into the evolution of cryptocurrencies but I think we are still at a very early stage. I am not writing off cryptocurrencies; they may yet prove to be the future but we have to get past the inherent problems that are prevalent first.0 -
Malthusian wrote: »What risk? You just told us it's going to go up and up for the next 5-10 years, and then level out.
This is the problem I was talking about. The vast majority of people currently think that Bitcoin is worth nothing. The idea that Bitcoin will grow further and then stabilise relies on the vast majority of people coming to think like you do. But if even you don't believe it, why should we?
It's like being part of a cult that believes the world will end in 2020 and then finding that the founder has been salting away donations into a pension plan. "Of course I still believe that the world will end, I'm just putting some money away just in case I'm wrong. I mean, you'd've have to be some kind of moron to bet the house on it. Wait, where are you all going?" You're the Gerald Ratner of cryptocurrency.
Nothing is without risk - I can believe it may go up exponentially over the coming years but I could be wrong. Sadly I do not have a crystal ball - all I can base my belief on is the experience I have had in crypto over the past 4 years - long before the mainstream were interested in it. I do believe in it but I guess I am risk averse. If I had more disposable income available perhaps I would feel differently.I am insane and have 4 mortgages - total mortgage debt £200k. Target to zero = 10 years! (2030)0 -
Malthusian wrote: »
Whereas anyone can get an off-the-shelf mining algorithm and duplicate BitCoin. It doesn't matter that there are only 21 million possible Bitcoins, anyone can take the same very long numbers, or a different mining algorithm entirely, call it Bitcoin II or Bitcoiin (actually that one's taken) and dump another x million cryptocoins on the market. Unlike with gold vs altgold, there is no objective reason why Bitcoin should be worth more than them.
It would be very difficult to recreate Bitcoin and what makes it unique, sure you can copy it, but the code is only a small part of it. Some of it covered in the below:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-than-other-cryptocurrencies-e16b17d48b94
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-e17b813fd9470 -
It would be very difficult to recreate Bitcoin and what makes it unique, sure you can copy it, but the code is only a small part of it. Some of it covered in the below:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-than-other-cryptocurrencies-e16b17d48b94
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-is-different-e17b813fd947
One of the reasons given is "network effect", which we can dismiss immediately as "network effect" is the reason MySpace is still so popular and always will be. I already mentioned this in my previous post when I referred to Bitcoin being the original.
The other is a bald assertion that Bitcoin has "proven security", and there is little justification given as to why Bitcoin is more secure than any other altcoin. The author goes on to say that "The security of Bitcoin has been proven far more than its much younger counterparts", referring to the fact that Bitcoin hasn't been subject to a catastrophic hack or a defect in the mining algorithm that suddenly gives someone ten million coins. But this is just regurgitating the fact that Bitcoin is the original again. There is no reason any of its competing altcoins can't also last for a few years without anything catastrophic happening (other than speculators losing their money).0 -
the only reason to hold bitcoin (as opposed to: use it temporarily for a transaction) is speculation. new uses may be found for it (or for other cryptos, with added features), but i'm struggling to imagine any that would involve holding rather than transacting. as long as the only reason to hold a crypto is speculation, its value is determined not by the level of transactions, but by the speculative flows of money (some of which is quite blatant ramping, incidentally - just as bad as a dodgy AIM stock).
the problem is not just that bitcoin's price is unstable, making it unsuitable as a "store of value". even if that were fixed, there'd still no reason to adopt bitcoin as a "store of value", when there is a huge network effect from using the same currency as everybody else in your country. and most people pay taxes, so the currency you need to pay your taxes in always has an advantage other other possible currencies.
IMHO, even the idea that there'll be huge new uses for bitcoin (or other coins) seems to be over-stated. it's possible, but very often, the technology hyped as the next big thing isn't such a big deal, and it's something less obvious (or which just doesn't seem exciting enough) that becomes bigger. so far, the use cases for bitcoin all involve skirting (if not blatantly breaking) the law; can new uses outside that area be found? (i don't know.)0 -
There are some signs that crypto is simmering again and it is starting to creep up in value. Could go either way of course but on the forums I follow and from watching the charts there does seem to be a feeling that the bear market is waning and we could soon be back into a bull market.
I own a couple of Alts and they have both increased over 40% in the past week - I see this as a promising indicator that Bitcoin is going to burst into life again soon. No guarantees of course but I think there is a good chance we could head up towards previous ALH's within the next 6 months and possibly higher.I am insane and have 4 mortgages - total mortgage debt £200k. Target to zero = 10 years! (2030)0
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