Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

System

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's up there with Jeremy Hunt saying this extra funding would be from the brexit dividend, efficiency savings and economic growth. No one believes this rubbish do they?

About 52% of people.

Herzlos

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Unless the government hands over cash to everyone and every business who has "lost money" through brexit, there is a saving.

Not true. Any business who has "lost money" through Brexit will pay less tax, because less profit.

If because of Brexit, they hire less staff, then there's more people claiming unemployment and paying income tax.


Businesses losing money also means (for most cases) the government loses money. That's money that needs to either be cut from budgets, or regained in tax.


So where is all of this extra money coming from?

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

Not true. Any business who has "lost money" through Brexit will pay less tax, because less profit.

If because of Brexit, they hire less staff, then there's more people claiming unemployment and paying income tax.


Businesses losing money also means (for most cases) the government loses money. That's money that needs to either be cut from budgets, or regained in tax.


So where is all of this extra money coming from?

Government simply doesn't work like this. We can't continue down this route whereby savings in one area are written off by assumptions of loses directly attributed to Brexit (which is impossible to sate in itself) in other areas.

You are also assuming there will be no growth in any sector or area, only losses. I would say on this point, don't start repeating history. It was stated that directly after the vote we'd suffer. We haven't.

There is a clear and defined saving for the taxpayer when we stop handing over X million a week to the EU.

There may be costs elsewhere in the system. Fact is, we don't yet know, and won't ever be able to measure fully the "brexit" impact, as there are so many other external impacts on the economy also.

I think this argument has run it's course though. Only so many times we can go over the same thing. If you deny there is to be a saving when we stop paying X millions to the EU each month, then that's your call.

mayonnaise

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There is no Brexit dividend - it's already costing us a fortune.:eek:

It is indeed.

Manufacturing output falls at fastest rate since 2012

https://www.ft.com/content/d76f495c-6d52-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

UK goods trade deficit widens to biggest since September 2016

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-trade/table-uk-goods-trade-deficit-widens-to-biggest-since-september-2016-idUKKBN1J70VH

UK construction output lodged in longest slide since 2013

https://www.ft.com/content/5edb54f2-6d54-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

ukcarper

I do find all this meaningless we have had referendum handed in article 50 notice and are committed to leaving. There is no going back to as it was before we had referendum and there is no way the EU would let us reverse article 50 on terms we had before. Staying in single market and customs union would not satisfy the people who voted leave and badly damage our democracy and trust in politicians.

As someone who voted remain the best thing as far as I can see is to accept that we can't remain in single market and custom union and leave government to get on with negotiation the best deal they can.

I am disappointed by politicians of all parties and on both sides of the argument who keep pushing thier own agendas to the detriment of the governments negotiating position.

mayonnaise

Truly amazing some individuals here believe in a Brexit dividend.

If the NHS will be getting extra funding, it will be financed by increasing taxes on the entrepreneurs, the wealth generators, the job creators and the net tax payers of this country.

aka Remainers.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

It is indeed.

Manufacturing output falls at fastest rate since 2012

https://www.ft.com/content/d76f495c-6d52-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

UK goods trade deficit widens to biggest since September 2016

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-trade/table-uk-goods-trade-deficit-widens-to-biggest-since-september-2016-idUKKBN1J70VH

UK construction output lodged in longest slide since 2013

https://www.ft.com/content/5edb54f2-6d54-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

Come on Mayonnaise.

Your first link regarding manufacturing - the article implicitly states it's in the main, due to a global slowdown. They also reference the bad winter in the UK.

The second link will be affected by the first.

UK Construction is just poor - but it has absolutely nothing to do with brexit.

Just listing a few stories which show a fall in a sector and linking it to brexit (where this is no link and the reasons are explained) is extremely lazy.

Arklight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

There will be a saving from exiting the EU.

We stop paying money to the EU that we pay now. THAT is the brexit dividend.

Don't confuse the money we stop handing to the EU, with possible losses in the economy. Losses in the economy can happen for any reason. So can improvements.

Unless we expect the tapxpayer to start throwing cash at individuals who have lost out due to brexit (which is a nonsense), there will be an immediate cash saving to the taxpayer.

The money we stop handing over to the EU on exit = saved money.

It really is as simple as that.

Yes, it really isn't Graham.

The UK's net contribution to the EU is about £8.6bn, or to put it another way, about 0.3% of the UK's £2.7 trillion economy.

Personally if I had a 3 trillion dollar economy that most educated people thought was highly dependent on a trade agreement that costs 0.3% of my turnover, I would be rather reluctant to muck about with it based on the rather thin justification that Brexiteers like to use.

The assertion that the Tories' dreadful mismanagement of the NHS specifically, and public services in general, has anything to do with the EU, and nothing to do with their own venal self serving prejudice, makes my blood boil.

Tromking

Not surprisingly the 'Remoaner Class' have not taken the very idea that country is moving on and making plans post Brexit very well. Even the MSM are disappearing up their own jacksies trying to disprove the theory that a Brexit dividend can and will ever exist. This NHS announcement is good politics by the Tories it has to be said.
Meanwhile across the channel our continent is on the cusp of tearing itself apart over illegal immigration. How long before the Spanish electorate embraces the populist right as a result of its new left wing governments decision to make itself the destination of choice for the people smugglers now?

Tromking

Arklight wrote: »

Personally if I had a 3 trillion dollar economy that most educated people thought was highly dependent on a trade agreement that costs 0.3% of my turnover, I would be rather reluctant to muck about with it based on the rather thin justification that Brexiteers like to use.

Can you quantify in facts and figures what "highly dependent" really means in this case?
Genuine question.