Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Zero_Gravitas

Graham_Devon wrote: »

There IS a Brexit dividend.

The problem here is the IFS director is using the treasury scare tactics (i.e. very flawed projections) pre the Brexit vote. The same scare tactics that have been proven wrong so many times since the vote. The same scare tactics that the government will be struggling with for a long time.

He's then saying, if you look at their projections at that time, and their statements of how much Brexit would cost us, pre the vote, there is no Brexit dividend.

For an IFS director - it's not very clever at all. Most will see what he's done and see right through it.

The government dropped those projections and statistics the minute we voted for Brexit.

What you have now is some partial truth coming out. The PM stating there will be a saving to the country. She has to. It's the truth. The scare tactics have to be left behind.

Cameron and Osborne were not stupid. They got out as soon as they realised their pants had been pulled down in public after their fear campaign - knowing the majority of what they stated wouldn't come to pass. One of Osbornes aides has even admitted that there would never have been an emergency and harsh budget, it was all bluster, so they ran away. Bluster based on figures which were also bluster, which has been proven.

If there is a brexit dividend, then please be so kind as to tell us how much it will be, how you have calculated the value you come up with, the assumptions you have made and the cited basis for those assumptions.

Until then, this dividend continues to be yet more unsupported brexiteer aspiration. You’ll be telling us next the £350 million a week figure was correct

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

Not waffle at all.

Reality is somewhat mudane and boring. Not as exciting as 120 word Twitter feeds. However it's what people do everyday. With a single focus on the longterm.

Bringing together the UK's Research Councils being a prime example of a vision for the future. Ticks all the boxes too.

https://www.ukri.org/

Filo25

Graham_Devon wrote: »

There IS a Brexit dividend.

The problem here is the IFS director is using the treasury scare tactics (i.e. very flawed projections) pre the Brexit vote. The same scare tactics that have been proven wrong so many times since the vote. The same scare tactics that the government will be struggling with for a long time.

He's then saying, if you look at their projections at that time, and their statements of how much Brexit would cost us, pre the vote, there is no Brexit dividend.

For an IFS director - it's not very clever at all. Most will see what he's done and see right through it.

The government dropped those projections and statistics the minute we voted for Brexit.

What you have now is some partial truth coming out. The PM stating there will be a saving to the country. She has to. It's the truth. The scare tactics have to be left behind.

Cameron and Osborne were not stupid. They got out as soon as they realised their pants had been pulled down in public after their fear campaign - knowing the majority of what they stated wouldn't come to pass. One of Osbornes aides has even admitted that there would never have been an emergency and harsh budget, it was all bluster, so they ran away. Bluster based on figures which were also bluster, which has been proven.

It's perfectly obvious that thhe Remain campaign did a fair amount of scaremongering during the campaign (just as it is perfectly obvious the Leave campaign lied at times as well)

I still don't think you will mind any of those filthy experts, who think there will be a net Brexit dividend for UK public finances anytime soon, Theresa May certainly isn't an expert, she's just another politician lying because its politically expedient for her at this time,

You are right though many will believe it, just because it suits their world view, all too many have picked a side and will believe whatever supports that worldview and ignore everything else.

While I may be a Remainer I can at least still admit the obvious rubbish that the Remain campaign came out with.

Herzlos

Where is this Brexit dividend coming from though?

Assuming no economic hit (including that which has already happened being replaced) and we don't pay the EU anything for access to anything, we've only got the £167m/week contributions. Where does the rest come from?

gfplux

There is NO Brexit dividend. Just because a politician says so does not make it a fact.
However it looks more and more likely that the Brexiter view is.....
Politicians believable
Experts always wrong

Sounds to me more of Brexiter flat earth society.

Graham_Devon

There will be a saving from exiting the EU.

We stop paying money to the EU that we pay now. THAT is the brexit dividend.

Don't confuse the money we stop handing to the EU, with possible losses in the economy. Losses in the economy can happen for any reason. So can improvements.

Unless we expect the tapxpayer to start throwing cash at individuals who have lost out due to brexit (which is a nonsense), there will be an immediate cash saving to the taxpayer.

The money we stop handing over to the EU on exit = saved money.

It really is as simple as that.

vivatifosi

I don't think anyone is denying that we will save the cost of being in the EU.

The big question is whether the economy will be sufficiently resilient that any saving is offset enough to produce a Brexit dividend. Or at least break even.

As yet nobody, remainer or leaver, knows the answer to that. We have predictions from some that the economy will either shrink or grow at a slower rate. That will not lead to a Brexit bonus to pay for the NHS. We also have predictions that we can more than make up for any shortfall, through trade with the rest of the world. But they are just that, predictions.

ETA... In the event that the economy did shrink or fail to grow at the same rate, the way to tell would be to look at the trade with the EU, how much it had fallen by (if at all) and to what degree that had been offset by trade with the rest of the world. There will not be hiding behind numbers, or saying "losses in the economy can happen for any reason". Brexit will be judged as an economic success or failure on those metrics.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

I don't think anyone is denying that we will save the cost of being in the EU.

The big question is whether the economy will be sufficiently resilient that any saving is offset enough to produce a Brexit dividend. Or at least break even.

As yet nobody, remainer or leaver, knows the answer to that. .

Ummm.....

.The Brexit vote has already inflicted a hit of almost £20bn on the UK economy or around £300m for each week since the June 2016 referendum, according to a new analysis.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-losses-eu-referendum-result-billions-leave-european-union-a8081841.html

Our net payments to the EU are £174m a week.

The Brexit vote has already cost us £300m a week.

There is no Brexit dividend - it's already costing us a fortune.:eek:

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ummm.....


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-economy-losses-eu-referendum-result-billions-leave-european-union-a8081841.html

Our net payments to the EU are £174m a week.

The Brexit vote has already cost us £300m a week.

There is no Brexit dividend - it's already costing us a fortune.:eek:

Sorry, but this calculation is based on "The difference between the estimated remain vote counterfactual path, and the actual path".

So it's a pro remain source, saying we are worse off after brexit, based on estimates of counterfactual paths!?

Good Lord Hamish, you are better than this.

Graham_Devon

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'm going to give up having a car and use public transport. Overall it'll cost me more money.

The money I stop handing over in car tax & petrol = saved money. It really is as simple as that. :rotfl:

Take a step back a minute after picking yourself up from rolling around laughing.

Unless the government hands over cash to everyone and every business who has "lost money" through brexit, there is a saving.

The saving isn't being spent on the losses elsewhere, per-se, as those suffering losses won't get their losses topped up by Theresa May.

You are (purposely) confusing personal, possible losses against government savings. If I save £100 a month on my shopping, and you lose £20 a month on yours, I'm still £100 up regardless of your £20 loss. Same with Brexit until you get into unmeasurable economic performance.