Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

vivatifosi wrote: »

As do pro remain MPs. But it is a compromise position, which is why we will end up with it, or something like it. As I said, eventually.

At the moment we have an unholy mess. At some point we will need to coalesce towards an agreement, and the middle ground is more likely to be that point.

That's the thing here, some sort of compromise was always going to be necessary, politically May just made it a hell of a lot tougher for herself by taking the Dacre/Farage line with all the unnecessary Red lines and rhetoric early in the process, and she will now look like an idiot when she ends up having to row back on a lot of previous commitments.

Nobody with half a brain seriously thinks it is credible for the UK to leave with no deal and revert to WTO terms immediately in March next year, given we have made no preparations for that event, it would be economically disastrous and that tends to be politically disastrous shortly afterwards. The problem for now is too many senior Tories are still more interested in posturing to the media and membership for the good of their future career prospects, rather than actually trying to find a sensible solution.

The Labour leadership is no better, Corbyn/McDonnell clearly think the freedom from EU oversight will allow them to rollback Britain to some imagined nationalised paradise.

The various models for our future EU relationship are out there we just need to actually decide which one is our base and can probably tweak it slightly as required, I doubt there will be much more than tweaking agreed in the key next few months though.

Even if the next agreement is just an interim step on the way to a more flexible final arrangement, it is still an important one.

Filo25

iro wrote: »

Happy in your own echochamber?

Anyone who refers to the EU (for all its faults) as a fascist state really shouldn't talking about echochambers, the irony is just too rich. In the same way that it is nonsense when Labour voters sometimes bang on about fascist Britain under the Tories.

Herzlos

On the VW thing which I haven't had time to research yet; a big company complies with what it's market want, it's hardly a surprise. They also aren't going to throw a market away over a small fine. That's not the same as them pressuring their government to weaken the EU (which they benefit from greatly) to appease a relatively small market that'll buy their stuff any way.

From my experience of cars in the US; they just feel cheaper than Euro spec cars. They are nice enough bit it's a very different market with different regulations. I suspect the US is a much bigger market for VW than the UK is, too.


TLDR; German car manufacturers will want easy access to the UK, will dislike any resultant drop in sales, but won't risk jepoardising the EU over it. They won't rescue us.

iro

Good to see Brexiteers holding the remainers to account this morning.

I am relieved to see no one supporting AC Grayling's view.

Perfectly reasonable to argue we should stay in the EU.....

to encourage the EU to punish the UK in order to do this ......

This is an extremist little 'EUlander' attitude that will simply build up resentment against the EU and cause a fearful backlash..

iro

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44230865

Good news

Time to invest some of the mega profits and years of EU subsidy in PAYING PROPER WAGES!

(or capital investment in raising productivity)

Brilliant, brilliant Brexit!

Ballard

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How many times have we had big business threaten something? Including car manufacturers, who have turned around and done the exact opposite of their threat since the vote to leave? (Nissan and Vauxhall spring to mind, investing here after the vote, which is something they stated before the vote, categorically, they would not do).

The banks all threatened to leave if the result of the vote was to leave the EU. Barclays and HSBC are prominent in my mind, can even remember the statement. Have they done anything? Apart from state some of their staff have moved elsewhere (which has always happened regardless of our vote), nothing has changed.

I think if anything, we can absolutely and categorically state that a lot of the fear and bluster was just that. More of the same really doesn't wash anymore.

Big businesses in the UK have repeatedly demanded clarity on what the relationship might be once we’ve left but their calls have been unanswered. It’s been on the news quite a or so I’m surprised that you’ve missed it. Once they have their answer they will decide whether they need to move part of their operation overseas.

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

You seem to be completely blind to the current situation. Whether or not it's good tactics to reveal what they'd concede to get what they don't yet know what they want is sort of irrelevant don't you think?

That we seem to be in a 'sweet spot' where we're blessed with a poor government and a poor opposition isn't much of a comfort but thanks for the reminder.

You are the one who is blind The problem is we have voted to leave there we have to leave and although the majority of politicians voted remain most accept that we have to leave if the extremes on both sides stopped sniping it would be much easier for the government to obtain a deal.

kabayiri

Ballard wrote: »

How many times does it have to be repeated that the German carmakers themselves have said they they aren’t interested in a special deal with the UK? These are the very people who stand to lose most. Perhaps it’s all a big bluff and they will eventually press for something but it’s not looking likely at this point.

Bluff can be an effective strategy, but it needs conviction.

I don't think our politicians have that. They are frightened of their own shadow. Nobody wants to be the 'bad guy' who fails to support the fishermen/auto makers/Northern Irish.

So what is the one thing they can all blame which we have limited control over?

Answer : time.

I genuinely think they will end up in 11th hour rescue discussions, as they run out of time. Maybe Portillo was right in his predictions.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

Bluff can be an effective strategy, but it needs conviction.

I don't think our politicians have that. They are frightened of their own shadow. Nobody wants to be the 'bad guy' who fails to support the fishermen/auto makers/Northern Irish.

So what is the one thing they can all blame which we have limited control over?

Answer : time.

I genuinely think they will end up in 11th hour rescue discussions, as they run out of time. Maybe Portillo was right in his predictions.

It's not even a convincing bluff, as I mentioned recently there was a good thread on twitter about the WTO option recently re-posted (from a Leaver I might add!)

https://twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/907687683128004608

ukcarper

ilovehouses wrote: »

We voted to leave and that's what we're doing next March. Job done.

Yes it would be easier for the government if everyone was 100% in agreement on what should happen in addition to leaving the EU but the government are grown ups in our employ who, apparently, aren't afraid of making the hard decisions.

Please forgive me for thinking they're not up to the job.

If you were in the PMs position what would you do, granted extreme brexiters are not helping situation but if remain MPs from both sides of house got behind PM in the search for a compromise instead of trying to keep us in by backdoor her position would be strengthened.