Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

Just to be clear I am blaming the government here for this mess, even the difficult electoral arithmetic is entirely May's fault due to completely botching last year's GE.

At least there's a proper debate in the UK. Little interest in the EU. Though one wonders if some are fully aware of the implications.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Just to be clear I am blaming the government here for this mess, even the difficult electoral arithmetic is entirely May's fault due to completely botching last year's GE.

I also fully agree that Corbyn is both incompetent and a complete hypocrite on the EU issue, but the fact that the opposition is just as bad as the government isn't exactly something I am cheering about either!

I don't think the government and making a good job of it May's miscalculation on election does not help her but I suspect the result was as big a surprise to Labour as her. The other problem facing both parties is the majority of MPs do not want to leave.

You could also blame the EU if they had giving Cameron a bit more the referendum might have been avoided.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

Perhaps you could provide us with your workings on German car sales, and I'm not sure customer loyalty will be worth a 10% increase

I'm not sure where the 10% increase you mention comes from.


But bag of fag packet: The UK makes up about 14% of German car sales. So if we stopped buying German cars entirely, they'd suffer a bit, possibly close a factory, but would stop needing to make UK builds and possibly RHD models.


But that's not going to happen. German cars are already over-priced compared to the competition, are inspirational (useful for keeping up with the Jone's) with the cost of most hidden by finance packages. The vast majority of their customers aren't price sensitive to the same extent as, say, the French or Korean companies.


So from 14%, if half of the German car buyers are put off from their car of choice, we're down to about a 7% loss in sales. If half of those buy a cheaper German car (lower spec, lower model, lower brand), then we're talking about a 3.5% loss in sales. Admittedly profit margins aren't equal across the ranges though.


But we're a long way from killing the German car industry or forcing them to get Merkel to give us a cake and eat it deal. Especially since they've told us they aren't interested in doing so. The EU is more important to car manufacturers than some UK sales.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not sure where the 10% increase you mention comes from.


But bag of fag packet: The UK makes up about 14% of German car sales. So if we stopped buying German cars entirely, they'd suffer a bit, possibly close a factory, but would stop needing to make UK builds and possibly RHD models.


But that's not going to happen. German cars are already over-priced compared to the competition, are inspirational (useful for keeping up with the Jone's) with the cost of most hidden by finance packages. The vast majority of their customers aren't price sensitive to the same extent as, say, the French or Korean companies.


So from 14%, if half of the German car buyers are put off from their car of choice, we're down to about a 7% loss in sales. If half of those buy a cheaper German car (lower spec, lower model, lower brand), then we're talking about a 3.5% loss in sales. Admittedly profit margins aren't equal across the ranges though.


But we're a long way from killing the German car industry or forcing them to get Merkel to give us a cake and eat it deal. Especially since they've told us they aren't interested in doing so. The EU is more important to car manufacturers than some UK sales.

The 10% is the wto duty on fully assembled cars, I agree they will still sell some cars but it would be a strange company if they were happy with a 7% drop in sales. You need to stop this cake and eat business it just bluster it is possible to reach a deal in between WTO and what we have now.

Herzlos

I never said they'd be happy with a 7% drop in sales; I said they'd survive it and by all accounts view it as not worth risking the EU over. We can't rely on them coming to our rescue.

Most German car buyers won't really notice a 10% price increase. They'll potentially just lengthen the loan term.

The bigger concern, I thought, was in components crossing the border multiple times adding cost and delays. Like Nissans 2 million components being imported daily, or UK built engines going to the EU and coming back in cars, paying tariffs in both directions.

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

I never said they'd be happy with a 7% drop in sales; I said they'd survive it and by all accounts view it as not worth risking the EU over. We can't rely on them coming to our rescue.

Most German car buyers won't really notice a 10% price increase. They'll potentially just lengthen the loan term.

The bigger concern, I thought, was in components crossing the border multiple times adding cost and delays. Like Nissans 2 million components being imported daily, or UK built engines going to the EU and coming back in cars, paying tariffs in both directions.

All we do know, 100% at this point is that it is in both the EU and UK's interests to sort something out.

If either party is not willing to do this, then that shows something. What that something is we've yet to find out, but it's clearly looking like the EU are going to cut off their nose to spite their face.

If that continues to be the case, why would anyone wish to be part of a group that would be willing to damage the business of it's own citizens, to protect the group?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

I never said they'd be happy with a 7% drop in sales; I said they'd survive it and by all accounts view it as not worth risking the EU over. We can't rely on them coming to our rescue.

Most German car buyers won't really notice a 10% price increase. They'll potentially just lengthen the loan term.

The bigger concern, I thought, was in components crossing the border multiple times adding cost and delays. Like Nissans 2 million components being imported daily, or UK built engines going to the EU and coming back in cars, paying tariffs in both directions.

It's only you that implies in would destroy German car industry all I'm saying is it will have an effect. I don't see any reason why a deal which will not risk the EU but will go some way to offset the effects of leaving is possible. If you and the EU feel it's impossible to reach a deal which won't risk the EU and it's worth damaging the EU economy to avoid it, that should tell you something.

Ballard

Graham_Devon wrote: »

All we do know, 100% at this point is that it is in both the EU and UK's interests to sort something out.

If either party is not willing to do this, then that shows something. What that something is we've yet to find out, but it's clearly looking like the EU are going to cut off their nose to spite their face.

If that continues to be the case, why would anyone wish to be part of a group that would be willing to damage the business of it's own citizens, to protect the group?

How many times does it have to be repeated that the German carmakers themselves have said they they aren’t interested in a special deal with the UK? These are the very people who stand to lose most. Perhaps it’s all a big bluff and they will eventually press for something but it’s not looking likely at this point.

gfplux

buglawton wrote: »

To cope with the downturn in the economy that Brexit will cause, the Cabinet has just waved through the 3rd Heathrow runway.
To help with the 700 extra planes flying daily to cope with that recession and downturn in UK-international trade.

Such a clever idea to keep building more and more infrastructure in the South East of England.

iro

ilovehouses wrote: »

Whilst you'll keep happily bashing the EU if they do and if they don't not a single person here is saying the EU is always perfect and the UK always flawed.

Well it looks like that from my perspective.

Do you disagree with AC Grayling's comment?

'What would help the remain movement in the UK, if the EU is very, very tough and uncompromising on a deal'

If this is what Grayling and other remainers have been saying is it any wonder HMG faces a difficult negotiation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uSFSGR94iE

Do you want a bad deal from the EU so the UK is forced to stay in the EU?

We had a referendum to decide on the relative merits of the EU and the result was clear.